Post-Trump, WA politics have been turned upside down. Pierce County is no exception | Opinion
Throughout my 44 years in Washington state politics, three things have almost always been true: The state leaned Democratic, but Republicans had a fighting chance to win statewide offices, congressional seats and legislative majorities; Republicans controlled Eastern Washington and the suburbs, while Democrats dominated the cities and rural western Washington; and both parties were led by moderates.
The 2024 election is already showing us that none of that is still true today. The political world has been turned upside down, including in Pierce County.
Not long ago, Washington was a competitive purple state. Before Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, Republicans had a one-seat majority in the state Senate and were within two seats in the state House. The party also held two statewide offices and four seats in Congress.
Today, Republicans hold only two seats in Congress, zero statewide offices and are deeply in the minority in the state Legislature.
The tectonic realigning of our politics — in which Democrats have lost rural and blue-collar voters, but gained college-educated suburbanites — will once again be on display this election.
Republicans used to dominate upper-income suburban districts, now they are virtually extinct there.
At the same time, Republicans now firmly control the rural areas.
Repercussions in Pierce County
This shift has been playing out locally.
Until 2006, Pierce County’s rural 2nd Legislative District, encompassing the southeast part of the county, was represented in the state Senate by Democrat Marilyn Rasmussen. Now it is unthinkable that a Democrat could win there. On the other hand, the suburban 28th District — which includes Lakewood and University Place) — was until recently Republican. Now the it’s represented by Democrats.
The problem for Washington state Republicans is there are far, far more suburban voters and suburban districts than there are rural districts that they don’t already control. In fact, suburban growth in Clark and Snohomish counties, and court-ordered redistricting in eastern Washington, are putting more currently Republican legislative districts at risk.
As a result, with the possible exception of the governor’s race, Republicans are not threatening to make progress this year in statewide or legislative elections. The GOP does have a chance to flip a Democratic congressional seat in southwest Washington’s 3rd district. Republican Joe Kent lost to Democratic Rep. Marie Perez by less than 1% in 2022. But this is a district that should be safe for Republicans, and electing super MAGA Kent would not the kind of victory that alters Republican fortunes.
The great establishment Republican hope this year lies in the governor’s race, where they are counting on former King County Sheriff and U.S> Congressman Dave Reichert to defeat Attorney General Bob Ferguson. Polling does show the race is close, but many questions hang over Reichert’s campaign.
Reichert’s own party has endorsed someone more acceptable to the Trump base, Semi Bird, of the Tri-Cities. If Reichert survives the primary, can he unite the party? Can he compete with the massive financial advantage currently enjoyed by Ferguson? And most importantly, can any Republican get elected governor in Washington , particularly with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket?
If the governor’s race is close, Pierce County will be crucial. Rob McKenna won Pierce County in 2012, and other statewide Republicans have come close. To offset the Democratic landslide in King County, Reichert must win something approaching 55% of the vote in this neck of the woods.
Disappearing moderates
Washington state’s tradition of bipartisan, moderate politics continues to be challenged.
For decades, moderate Democrats like Patty Murray, Gary Locke and Booth Gardner, and moderate Republicans like Slade Gorton, Rob McKenna, and Jennifer Dunn, led their two parties in Washington.
This year, we see numerous contested primary races based on ideology up and down the ballot.
On the Democratic side, it is Clinton/Obama/Biden moderates vs Bernie Sanders progressives. Examples include moderate State Senator Kevin Van De Wege’s face off with progressive King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove in the Lands Commissioner race and moderate Nick Brown battling progressive State Senator Manka Dhingra in the Attorney General race.
On the Republican side, the fight is between enthusiastic Trump supporters and establishment types who wish Trump would just go away, desplite the fact that no Republican candidate dares to openly oppose Trump.
Reichert’s battle with Bird in the governors race tops that list. Establishment Congressman Dan Newhouse’s struggle to hold onto his central Washington district against MAGAites Tiffany Smiley and Jerrod Sessler is another example.
Again, this trend affects races in Pierce County. In the open seat race for the Tacoma-based 6th Congressional District, moderate Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz is facing off against progressive State Senator Emily Randall, while in the 31st legislative district — which includes Sumner and Bonney Lake — MAGAite Brandon Beynon is battling moderate Joshua Penner for an open, safely Republican state House seat.
Washington state politics has changed, and the change continues.
The results of the August primary will give us more information on how far that change has progressed.
Chris Vance is a former Republican state legislator, King County Council member and State Party Chairman. He left the GOP in 2017. Vance writes a monthly opinion column for The News Tribune.
