Who will replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader?

More than a week remains before voters head to the polls, but the race to become the next Tory leader is already well under way.

With polls predicting a general election apocalypse for the Conservatives on 4 July, several senior Tories have "stepped up manoeuvres" in their bids to succeed Rishi Sunak, the Financial Times reported. Frontrunners are said to be courting MPs and building grassroots support, ahead of a leadership race that will "help shape British politics for years to come as the Conservative Party decides whether to shift to the right".

The Tories will soon find themselves "unchained from the veneer of respectability" required of a party in power, said Tom Newton Dunn in the London Evening Standard. The leadership race will unleash an "almighty blood-fest" as years of post-Brexit tensions in the party come to a boil, he wrote: "And it will be a fight to the death."

Kemi Badenoch: 7/2

The current favourite with bookmakers, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has risen rapidly through the Tory ranks to cement her place as the preferred candidate of the right-wing faction.

Having unexpectedly finished a strong fourth in the 2022 leadership race, the former banker has become a "darling of Conservative right-wingers" thanks to her "direct approach and dedication to 'anti-woke' principles", said the BBC.

"She is far from a shoo-in," though, said Newton Dunn. "While she is an original and loved by the members, she can be bad-tempered and dismissive inside Westminster and is far less loved by Tory MPs."

Still, "not much doubt remains" that Badenoch "does intend to run for the leadership as the 'soft right' candidate who can help see off any bid by Nigel Farage for a Tory takeover", said Anne McElvoy in i news.

"Kemi is the future here," one Tory donor agreed at the Tories' recent summer gala fundraising event at London's exclusive Hurlingham Club.

Priti Patel: 7/1

Badenoch's most serious challenge from the Right of the party is expected to come from former home secretary, Dame Priti Patel. With Suella Braverman's star appearing to wane, allies of Patel reported in The Telegraph that "figures from across the party wanted her to stand as a potential unifying candidate who could end the infighting and provide a credible leader of the opposition".

The Times has reported that to "win support" from her colleagues for a potential leadership bid, Patel has privately ruled out striking a post-election pact with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. She has also used a recent article to reaffirm the Conservatives as an "unashamedly pro-business party that believes in promoting the low-tax environment that the nation's entrepreneurs and wealth creators need to flourish and be successful" – something that will be music to the ears of Tory MPs and members looking for back-to-basics conservatism.

Tom Tugendhat: 8/1

Security minister Tom Tugendhat is also expected to throw his hat into the ring, having previously run for the leadership in 2022. The former soldier is "seen as being on the moderate wing of the party", said The Telegraph and, unlike some of his rivals, looks a sure bet to retain his seat.

That has "boosted the prospects" of Tugendhat, who is "working quietly in the background" on testing the water with colleagues for their support, Politico reported.

He may well be the One Nation wing's "leading candidate" said Newton Dunn, but even his supporters put his chances at 10-20% "tops" because the membership is "largely Right-wing".

Penny Mordaunt: 9/1

Another perennial leadership hopeful from the centre of the party, the Leader of the Commons came within a whisker of making the final two candidates put forward to members in the 2022 leadership race that eventually saw Liz Truss elected.

A Royal Navy reservist, Mordaunt was the UK's first female defence secretary, and has maintained a high profile among the public ever since. Earlier this year, The Guardian reported that she was being widely touted as a potential consensus candidate to replace the failing Sunak, and she has deputised for the PM in several election leaders' debates.

However, her Portsmouth North seat is now a toss-up with Labour, with some polls predicting she could lose on 4 July, which would put an end to her leadership chances – for the time being at least.

James Cleverly: 12/1

Another cabinet member making a splash at the Hurlingham was Home Secretary James Cleverly, who has nonetheless remained coy about his leadership prospects.

Last week, The Times reported the former foreign secretary "lacks the appetite" to succeed Sunak, citing his wife Susie's rounds of intense treatment for cancer in recent years.

Despite his hesitation, he is still being "urged to stand by some centrist colleagues" and will reportedly not refuse definitively "given the uncertainty of the state of the party post-election".

Cleverly's supporters whisper about him "playing the longer game" after the "inevitable internecine conflict which will follow the loss to Labour", said McElvoy, but his recent actions suggest that "he would still like to be a standard bearer for the Tory centre".