South of the border, a woman is poised to take power in historic Mexico elections

The U.S. tried and failed, and now Mexico is getting there first.

In an historic election on Sunday, Mexican voters are expected to elect a woman − most likely a woman of Jewish ancestry − to lead the country, beating its neighboring ally and sometimes competitor, the United States, to that distinction.

Claudia Sheinbaum is favored to win and become the next negotiator-in-chief with the U.S. on issues from cross-border trade to immigration and drug and fentanyl trafficking, with consequences that inevitably spill into American households.

Here's what to know about election day in Mexico, and the woman likely to win.

A woman will likely become president of Mexico

It's a three-way presidential race with a clear front-runner: Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist, engineer and former mayor of Mexico City who shares the populist ideology of her political mentor, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman and former senator, is trailing second place in polls, all but ensuring that Mexico will elect a female head of state before the U.S. does. Jorge Álvarez Máynez is the third candidate.

"So many things that happen in Mexico don’t stay in Mexico; they influence the United States," said Shannon O'Neil, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Who the next president of Mexico is really matters."

Political rhetoric north of the border may leave some Americans thinking of Mexico in stereotypes and caricatures: former President Donald Trump's "bad hombres," or spring breakers. But Mexico’s stamp on the U.S. is everywhere.

It’s in the Mexico-made car parts that keep U.S. autoworkers employed in Detroit, in the windmill blades exported to U.S. clean energy plants, in the pacemakers saving the lives of American patients with heart failure and in the $15 avocado toast on restaurant menus nationwide.

The country became the United States’ largest trading partner last year, pushing China to the No. 2 spot, and the two neighbors now do nearly $800 billion in trade annually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

But it’s a fraught relationship. Mexico is also the transit country for hundreds of thousands of U.S.-bound migrants, provoking repeated humanitarian crises at the U.S. border. And it’s the source country for the fentanyl that kills tens of thousands of Americans each year.

"If you have a president that is open to the United States and cooperating on the shared challenges and doubling down on the opportunities," O'Neil said, "that is better for the United States. If you have a president who is more suspicious and doesn’t want to work with the United States, then it’s much harder."

Frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum calls out racism, 'machismo'

Sheinbaum, who has been leading in polls by double-digits, is seen as more of a left-leaning idealist than a savvy deal-maker like López Obrador. But she has promised to continue his agenda.

In a campaign rally outside Mexico's colonial-era Palacio Nacional on Wednesday, Sheinbaum, 61, lauded López Obrador as the "best president Mexico has ever had," railed against "neoliberalism" and promised to carry on López Obrador's measures to combat inequality.

Those measures include cash transfers to some 25 million Mexicans, O'Neil said, including elderly people, students and others.

"Humanism means reclaiming rights and eradicating classism, racism, machismo and discrimination – which all belong to right-wing thinking," Sheinbaum said.

U.S.-Mexico cooperation suffered under López Obrador in some areas and held strong in others, and experts predict more of the same if Sheinbaum wins.

López Obrador scaled back security cooperation by quitting an agreement called the Mérida Initiative, under which the U.S. had committed $1.5 billion to help Mexico battle criminal organizations. But he renegotiated the key free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico and has continued partnering with the U.S. on one of its current top priorities: slowing migration to the U.S. border.

Mexican voters concerned with economy, public safety

But the issues most important to the United States – trade, immigration, border security, drug trafficking – aren't the ones that Mexicans care about most.

In regions from the industrial north to the Caribbean coast and all-important capital city of 22 million people, Mexican voters are worried about inflation, economic opportunities and public safety in their own communities.

It's the biggest election the country has ever had, with 20,708 offices up for grabs, according to the National Electoral Institute. Campaigns across Mexico have been marred by violence; a mayoral candidate in southern Guerrero state was shot to death Wednesday.

"Whoever wins will be dealing with huge issues in terms of security," said Jennifer Apperti, director of the Texas-Mexico Center at Southern Methodist University.

In Mexico, the next administration's focus is likely to be domestic policy, not foreign policy, she said. "Two of the biggest domestic issues are: What are we doing about crime and also jobs?"

Official corruption in Mexico and insatiable demand for drugs in the U.S. have helped criminal organizations flourish across many regions in Mexico. They've amassed power to control not only the drug trade but legitimate export industries including avocados and limes. Where rival organizations fight for territory, Mexicans live under a heavy cloud of extreme violence.

Gálvez, the candidate trailing second in the polls, is trying to capitalize on that discontent. In her final campaign rally in the northern city of Monterrey, she called out the "136,000 killed and 50,000 disappeared" in Mexico during López Obrador's six-year term.

"This is the result of a security strategy in which the 'hugs' have been for criminals and the 'bullets' for citizens," she said, referring to López Obrador's signature "hugs not bullets" strategy of not tackling criminal organizations head-on.

Faced with the realities of violence and weak economic growth in Mexico, in a recent poll by the El Paso, Texas-based Puente Collaborative, more than a third of Mexican respondents said they would consider migrating to the U.S. to improve their working or living conditions.

A path for prosperity in U.S.-Mexico relationship

But more often Mexicans are staying put. They're finding jobs in the hundreds of assembly plants that send car parts, pacemakers, respirators, computers and Christmas lights to the U.S., or they're working in the booming tourist ports from Puerto Vallarta to Cancun.

In Mexico, the hundreds of thousands of migrants pushing north to the U.S. border are increasingly from somewhere else.

In Mexico City's enormous Zócalo public square on Wednesday, Lorenzo Pacheco held a sign for Sheinbaum. Pacheco has never worked in the U.S., he said. But with the peso gaining strength against the U.S. dollar, he recently took a four-day trip to visit the casinos of Las Vegas.

He wore the maroon color of Sheinbaum's political party, MORENA, and said he'd vote for her on Sunday. But even a militant "morenista" like him said the government hasn't done enough to fight organized crime.

"It's a problem the current government should handle with a tougher hand," he said. "Because really they haven't solved the problem."

Like many Mexicans, Pacheco sees a path for Mexican prosperity in its relationship with the U.S. The Puente poll found that 42% of Mexicans view the current relationship with the U.S. favorably and 60% hold a favorable opinion of U.S. citizens.

"The United States depends on Mexico as much as Mexico depends on the United States," Pacheco said. "There should be more openness in trade and tourism and everything that benefits both countries. As one grows, so grows the other."

Omar Ornelas reported from Mexico City.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Claudia Sheinbaum set to be first woman president in Mexico elections