Will it be sunny for the Fourth of July? See the weather forecast for SLO County

John Lindsey
·4 min read

Sunday will mark the end of the 2023-24 rainfall season (July 1 through June 30).

We have been fortunate to receive two years of back-to-back, above-average rainfall, which, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, took the Central Coast and the state of California out of a drought classification. It is remarkable to think that at the beginning of 2023, the entire state of California was in a drought condition.

The Central Coast’s rainfall totals have exceeded the average for this rainfall season.

To put this into perspective, Rocky Butte near Hearst Castle has recorded 72.3 inches of rain; this is 181% above the average seasonal rainfall at the Butte, which typically gets 40 inches in a year. Similarly, the Paso Robles Municipal Airport has seen nearly 18.3 inches, compared to the usual 13 inches in a typical year. Cal Poly, the home of climatology for San Luis Obispo, has recorded 25.4 inches this rain season, which is 113% of the average.

The Santa Maria Public Airport has recorded over 17.5 inches, or 4.5 inches above the seasonal average of 13 inches. Santa Barbara Municipal Airport reports nearly 25.3 inches of rain, over 9 inches above the typical 16 inches for the rainy season.

For the first part of this week, fresh to strong (19 to 25 mph) afternoon northwesterly winds, decreasing during the night and morning, will allow the marine layer to develop along the coastline and surge into the coastal valleys during the overnight, with areas of fog and pockets of drizzle with daytime clearing through Monday.

Over this period, temperatures will reach the high 90s in the inland valleys (Paso Robles), low 80s in the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and 60s along the beaches, except for Cayucos, Avila Beach and Shell Beach, which will reach the mid-70s.

The weather models show the potential development of a 597-decameter upper-level high-pressure system centered over Central California developing mid-week.

Fireworks at Cayucos.
Fireworks at Cayucos.

If the models prove accurate, a significant heat wave away from the coastal regions could begin as early as July 3 and continue through July 8.

Some areas of the Great Central Valley of California could experience temperatures approaching 115 degrees.

Along the Central Coast, the inland valleys will hit triple-digit levels, while the coastal valleys will reach the mid to high 80s. Along the beaches, temperatures will remain in the 60s under overcast skies as this high-pressure ridge will compress the temperature inversion layer for the Fourth of July.

As anyone who has lived along the Central Coast for any length of time will tell you, July tends to feature a lot of low clouds and fog along the beaches at night and in the morning. Unfortunately, the fog can threaten the enjoyment of Fourth of July fireworks displays.

All it takes is a slight change in air temperature, the temperature inversion layer, or the direction or speed in the wind to make the difference between beautiful fireworks display versus a light show in the coastal stratus. If the base of the marine clouds is high enough, you can still see a clear display of the fireworks.

Pyrotechnics are made to burst at different heights, depending on the size of the shell and how the fireworks are packed. Most firework displays along our coastline reach an altitude between a few hundred to 1,000 feet.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds along the coastline on Friday through next Saturday will produce primarily sunny conditions and warmer temperatures, especially along the 60s along the suddenly facing beaches of Cayucos, Avila Beach, and Shell Beach, which could reach the 80s.

Surface seawater temperatures will range between the low to mid-50s through Friday.

On this date in weather history (June 30)

1942: The temperature at Portland, Oregon, hit 102 degrees — an all-time record for that location.

1972: The entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area as a result of the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Agnes, which claimed 48 lives, and caused $2.1 billion damage.

1987: Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest, with readings above 100 degrees reported as far north as southern British Columbia. Yakima, Washington, reported a record high of 100 degrees, while temperatures near the Washington coast hovered near 60 degrees all day. Thunderstorms prevailed from southwest Texas to New England. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, killed one person. High winds and large hail caused more than $5 million damage to property and crops in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. (Storm Data)

2016: The high temperature at Diablo Canyon only reached 54 degrees, while Paso Robles hit 106 degrees for a 52-degree temperature differential between the coast and the inland valleys.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

SUN

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI

SAT

SUN

57, 97

57, 97

61, 98

61, 101

61, 102

62, 100

62, 104

62, 104

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

SUN

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI

SAT

SUN

56, 81

58, 82

58, 85

60, 86

61, 87

61, 83

61, 88

60, 89

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.

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