UNC looks good enough to win out, but it needed Florida State’s late-game test
North Carolina basketball has its eyes set on one thing: A national championship.
Bracketology experts see the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed, and they show no signs of slowing down.
No. 3 UNC (17-3, 9-0 ACC) earned its 10th straight win and best start in the league since 2001 after defeating Florida State (12-8, 6-3 ACC), 75-68, on Saturday.
It heads to Atlanta on Tuesday for a matchup against Georgia Tech (9-11, 2-7 ACC).
KenPom.com predicts the Heels to finish with a 26-5 overall record and 18-2 in the ACC. The projected record suggests the team could win out, but Carolina has yet to face Duke or Virginia.
Analytics give the team a 50% chance of winning 77-76 at Cameron Indoor Stadium and a 69% chance of beating UVA in Charlottesville, 67-62. Those remain the two most likely losses, KenPom reports.
The Heels rank No. 15 nationally in offensive efficiency (118.8 points/100 possessions) and No. 4 in defensive efficiency (92.4 opponents points/100). Statistics and their ranking say the they’re one of the best teams in the nation.
Most recently, Carolina faced arguably their biggest test of the ACC schedule so far when playing the Seminoles.
“It was good just to see where we are when it’s a crucial time and when the game was on the line,” senior RJ Davis said. “That’s what’s going to happen in the postseason.”
Florida State went into the game with five straight wins to start 2024 and a win over Syracuse on the road last week. It added Primo Spears and Cameron Corhen to its rotation, as well, both of whom missed the first meeting between the teams in December. Spears and Corhen combined for 19 points, eight rebounds and four assists.
The game featured two ties and four lead changes, with the ‘Noles leading by as many as eight points. FSU added a late-game surge to cut Carolina’s double-digit lead to two points with less than three minutes remaining.
Davis responded by scoring the Tar Heels’ final five points. His ongoing success, especially in crunch time, comes from experience and maturity. He’s played in virtually every situation possible, leading to a calm demeanor and effective decision-making.
The senior pointed to a pair of possessions during Florida State’s late run. De’Ante Green guarded Davis, forcing him to settle for a jumper that landed short. With 45.5 seconds left, Davis found himself in a similar position and drove into the lane from the left wing. He scored a floater over Green, giving the Heels a two-possession lead.
“I know how to take advantage of the game or [do] whatever the game calls for. It’s all about game planning and managing,” Davis said. “I put in a lot of hard work…for me to live up to these moments; take control of the ball and take control of the game. This is nothing new to me, because I prepare myself for it.”
Carolina might be a title favorite, but there are 11 regular season games remaining and everyone is itching to take down the Tar Heels.
The next five weeks will put UNC to the test again and again, but the team feels ready to face the challenge.
“We’ve been in those situations a lot this year, and we practice those situations, as well,” head coach Hubert Davis said. “Irregardless if it comes out in a win or a loss, we feel prepared and confident in those situations to be able to do what we need to do in order to get a victory.”
