The Walking Dead recap: Lance has big plans in the works
Josh Hamilton's Lance Hornsby is playing the long game. For what end? We still don't know, but we have a pretty clear guess.
The Walking Dead season 11's "The Lucky Ones" nearly spelled it out. Max tells Eugene (Josh McDermitt) that Lance was excited when he heard about Alexandria from their radio conversations together. He seemingly wants the trifecta of Alexandria, Hilltop, and Oceanside to join the Commonwealth so that Pamela will appoint him leader of those communities. But there's clearly a bigger goal in place, and our guess is that he's looking to seize control of the Commonwealth itself.
Comic book Lance wasn't as prominent of a figure as he is in the show, though perhaps there are some elements from that Commonwealth arc that might be informing the political animal we see on screen. In the comics story, a faction emerged inside the Commonwealth with plans to pull off a coup and unseat Governor Pamela Milton. Lance wasn't involved in this, but perhaps the show's Lance is different in that regard.
Josh Stringer/AMC Josh Hamilton's Lance Hornsby on 'The Walking Dead' season 11 episode 'The Lucky Ones'
All the pieces are slowly starting to line up. He's got a top-secret club of operatives in place, which implies he's been planning something for a while. He's been dealing with poppy smugglers on the sly, so you know he's building up his own resources separate from Pamela and the Commonwealth. He also has a powerful player, Carol, doing favors for him to get Ezekiel that surgery. (Which he gets even if he's not happy about the way Carol got him bumped up on the list.) With the promise of Alexandria, Hilltop, and Oceanside under his thumb, Lance could well get the resources to establish his own empire and forces to overthrow Pamela.
The problem now is getting Hilltop and Oceanside on board. In "The Lucky Ones," he accompanies Pamela on a tour of all three communities. All the pageantry (Daryl dressed out of his soldier uniform as "one of the people" and Aaron trying to make Alexandria look as viable as possible to Pamela) is all to help sway the necessary parties to bring these territories into the Commonwealth fold. Pamela has an "all or nothing" mentality. If even one community doesn't want to join, then she doesn't want any of them.
The first visit is to Alexandria, and already she's getting cold feet. She knew Deanna prior to the outbreak, but she's dismayed when she learns that Deanna was bit by a walker and turned. Daryl also mentions that Alexandria has fallen multiple times before, and then to top it off, a walker breaches the walls, proving to Pamela that this town isn't as structurally sound as it may appear.
Oceanside, meanwhile, is a bit of a nonstarter. They will only join the Commonwealth if Maggie and Hilltop agree to join. A lot of wooing occurs on Pamela and Lance's part: they give Hilltop supplies, Pamela takes Maggie hunting, Mercer's forces help them deal with walkers. Diane very much wants Maggie to accept Pamela's deal, but Maggie ultimately declines the offer. She sees how militarized the police force is and how Daryl and Aaron are clearly putting on a show for her. It goes back to something she spoke with Pamela: everything costs something.
It's unclear if this contributed to her choice, but Lance had inadvertently revealed his true nature to Maggie when he told her about his lucky coin. When he was a kid, he thought it was made of gold, only to realize when he grew up that it was gold-plated with nothing but nickel underneath the surface. His offer of the Commonwealth may seem shiny and safe, but there are cheap tactics behind it.
Maggie's decision prompts Diane and some of the other Hilltop-ers to leave and go with the Commonwealth, which visibly gives Maggie doubt as to whether she made the right decision. Despite everything, Pamela allows Lance to keep working with Alexandria in the hopes of winning over the other communities. But the Commonwealth, she says, always comes first. And if he ends up slacking in his duties, she promises there will be consequences.
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