Why 18 days will make SC the center of the GOP universe, and which candidate might benefit most
In the span of this past week, three Republicans vying for the White House came to South Carolina.
But seven months from now, over the span of two-and-a-half weeks, the state will practically swarm with Republican candidates racing to win over some of the nation’s most influential votes.
The South Carolina Republican Primary is planned for Feb. 24 — 18 days after the Nevada primary, with no other GOP contests so far scheduled in between. That’s 18 days when all eyes, stump speeches and ads will turn to the state that’s historically known for catapulting candidates to eventual party nomination.
Some say South Carolina’s primary date itself could be a benefit for lesser-known candidates, who will have more breathing room to introduce themselves to and court voters in the state. And besides any possible benefit to particular candidates, the positioning of the state’s primary should benefit South Carolina itself, with candidates likely to pump potentially unprecedented dollars into the state’s economy in the preceding weeks.
South Carolina was already slated to be the center of the political world, but this presidential election cycle, the state has an unusual 18-day opportunity to potentially reset the presidential race and set the national tone ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5.
“It’s a benefit to our party, to our local parties, to our Republican activists around the state to get as much of an opportunity as possible to get one-on-one time in many cases with our candidates, to let them do events, to let them get throughout our state,” said Drew McKissick, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party.
The state’s influence on presidential politics has long been key. Since 1980, the winner of the S.C. Republican presidential primary has gone on to win the nomination in every cycle except 2012, when the party nominated Mitt Romney, but Newt Gingrich won the Palmetto State’s primary.
Will any candidate benefit?
The S.C. GOP’s selection of Feb. 24 places it 18 days following the Nevada primaries on Feb. 6, if the nominating contest order remains as expected. (Republicans in Nevada are suing to hold a party-run caucus instead, and potentially on a different day.)
But that 18-day window could help candidates who may not be as well known in the Palmetto State. In particular, some political watchers say, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could stand to benefit most, thanks to the additional time to get his name and message out in a state where many believe he’s still not as well known as his closest competition.
Front-runners in the race include former President Donald Trump, who has the support of 41% of South Carolina GOP voters according to a June National Public Affairs poll; DeSantis, who’s consistently polling in second place nationally; and two South Carolinians, former Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who are both well known in their home state.
“Nikki takes no state for granted, but she has great trust in South Carolinians’ judgment, and we are very confident about how she’ll do there,” Haley spokesman Ken Farnaso said in a text message.
Scott’s team said the date of the primary won’t affect his campaign.
“Tim Scott is grateful for the strong foundation of support he has in his home state,” Scott’s campaign wrote in an email. “South Carolina voters know Tim Scott’s message of faith and optimism anchored in conservatism values is needed now more than ever. The date of the primary does not change the fact that South Carolina is ready to end the Biden retreat, and restore faith in America.”
But when DeSantis formally filed to be on the South Carolina ballot, he said it was “interesting” how the political calendar was working out and expressed the significance of the 18 days.
“There’s going to be a lot of emphasis on South Carolina,” DeSantis said. “It’s not going to be just the 10-day deal where it kind of happens, you blink, then it happens. There’s going to be a lot of opportunity to spend a lot of time here, and I think it’ll be good for everybody, good for the state.”
Gibbs Knotts, the dean of the school of Humanities and Social Sciences at College of Charleston and a long-time political observer in the state, said the scheduling shift has the potential to help DeSantis because voters here know who Trump, Haley and Scott are, but DeSantis is less well known in the state. The wide time frame gives him more chance to get his name out there.
“I certainly don’t think it’s a huge advantage,” Knotts said. “But I do think it would give, you know, a little more time for DeSantis to campaign in the state and to get his name out there. I still think a lot of folks might not know who Ron DeSantis is.”
DeSantis supporters, such as state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, R-Spartanburg, say the long window between Nevada and South Carolina will benefit the Florida governor and potentially reshape the race.
A handful of polls out of Nevada show Trump with a healthy lead in that state’s Republican primary race.
“(South Carolina) is a state I would think is probably tailored made for his (DeSantis) policy agenda, and Nevada is always kind of a wild card,” Kimbrell said. “I believe those 18 days could reset the entire race.”
Kimbrell pointed to how the late U.S. Sen. John McCain won New Hampshire in 2000, but 18 days later, George W. Bush won South Carolina and eventually went onto the presidency.
“So I look at this as a potential great reset in South Carolina, and 18 days is an eternity in politics,” Kimbrell said.
DeSantis himself acknowledged voters in the state may not know much about his background beyond him being Florida’s chief executive.
“When we go out and do things with folks, people know that I’ve been a good governor, they know Florida’s good, they get that, but they don’t know a lot about me, so when South Carolina, when the veterans know I’m a veteran, that’s a huge positive,” DeSantis said.
The three other GOP contests that precede South Carolina — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — also might influence what happens in the First in the South contest.
Gov. Henry McMaster, who is a former S.C. GOP chairman and is backing Trump as he did in the 2016 election, said the two-and-half weeks shouldn’t help any particular candidate.
“I think that the calculus of what happens after the other caucuses and primaries, it’s like a kaleidoscope. It changes with each click. So who it will help or not help will be anybody’s guess, and they’ll be guessing up until (the primary) is held,” McMaster said. “You know Peggy and I are 100% behind President Trump. I wish everybody else well. Proudly, we have two South Carolinians in the contest. I think I know just about everybody who is running and talking about running. They’re terrific candidates. And we welcome them all to South Carolina.”
Primary to provide economic benefit
The primary itself also is expected to contribute to the state’s economy, as campaigns will be dumping dollars into the state to try to win over South Carolina voters.
And leftover cash after a campaign is wasted money — so don’t expect expenses to be spared.
With South Carolina being an important state, campaigns have hired staff in the Palmetto State and may add more. Campaigns or groups supporting candidates will spend money on direct mail, advertisements on television and newspapers, radio to reach out to voters.
Trust in the Mission, a super PAC supporting Scott’s candidacy, already is planning to buy multiple millions of dollars worth of television spots in South Carolina starting after Sept. 7 and run them through January as part of a $40 million ad buy in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The primary will bring out-of-state visitors to South Carolina who will spend money on hotel stays and in restaurants. Campaigns will hold rallies or town halls, which usually entail renting event spaces and hiring stagehands to help with production.
The 2012 South Carolina Republican Primary took place 11 days after New Hampshire, and that election cycle provided an estimated $50 million worth of economic activity and marketing value for the state, according to a study by former S.C. GOP chairman Matt Moore.
“Whatever those numbers were, obviously it’s gone up with inflation,” McKissick said.
