Canada PoliticsLiberals win majority government in Nova Scotia election, NDP vote collapses
The pollsters finally got one right.
As they predicted, Stephen McNeil's Liberals have won the election in Nova Scotia, on Tuesday, becoming the first Grit majority government in that province in almost 20 years.
Jamie Baillie's Progressive Conservative party will form the official opposition, winning 11 ridings while the New Democrats collapse to a disappointing seven seats.
In terms of popular vote, the Liberals were at 45.5 per cent, the PCs at 26.4 per cent and the NDP at 26.9 per cent.
Shockingly, outgoing premier Darrell Dexter did not retain his seat -- he is no longer an MLA.
In a post-election address to reporters, he said that he's proud of what he and his party had accomplished since coming into power in 2009.
"I think that the test of what you do in government shows up over time," Dexter said.
"This was a difficult time to be in government as it is for all the premiers across Atlantic Canada. I'm frankly very proud of the work we've done over the past four years and we'll see how history judges that."
[ Related: Click here for complete riding-by-riding results ]
Journalist and politics watcher Ryan Van Horne says the end result is not a surprise.
"[The Liberals] have been heavily favoured in the polls for about a year and so this result should not surprise anyone," he told Yahoo Canada News in an email exchange.
"What did surprise me though is that the NDP did not rebound at the polls. It's rare for a government to get voted out after one term in Nova Scotia especially when they did a pretty good job considering the hand they were dealt. I've lived in Nova Scotia for 25 years and, in my opinion, they've given this province the second-best government behind the John Hamm Conservatives (1999 to 2006).|
Should the numbers hold, it will mark the first Liberal majority in Nova Scotia in almost 20 years. It's also first time in 131 years that Nova Scotians haven't given an incumbent party a second term.
Van Horne suggested several reasons why Nova Scotians might have soured on Dexter and the NDP — the first NDP government ever in Atlantic Canada.
"They set the bar high when they were in opposition and people expected them to govern differently than previous administrations. While they did, for the most part, there was an MLA expense scandal early in their term that implicated all parties, but took the lily white sheen off the NDP," Van Horne said.
"They made huge inroads in the last election — largely on a promise to keep rural ERs open — and while they were wise not waste money keeping that [promise], they did a poor job communicating why they didn't and why the solution they were implementing was just as good for patients and much better for taxpayers. This poor communication plagued them on other issues, too.
"Lastly, they didn't put their best people in cabinet during their first term. As a first-term government, I thought they could have done a better job picking the most capable ministers instead of worrying about other cabinet-making guidelines. People gave the NDP a chance in 2009 and they should have put their best foot forward, but didn't and most of the votes that they lost in this election were...in rural areas that decided to take the NDP for a test drive in 2009."
[ Related: Elections Nova Scotia investigating photos of completed ballots ]
In the end, Nova Scotians trusted McNeil over Dexter and Baille on the two key issues of the campaign which, according to Abacus Data pollster David Coletto, were the economy and health care.
Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff contends that McNeil did all the right things in the lead-up to the election.
"Stephen McNeil has run a very smooth campaign, avoiding controversy or personal attacks, and his signature policies, while not particularly exciting, offer comfort to Nova Scotians," he said in a statement released on Monday.
"It looks like Canada will have a fourth Liberal provincial government come Wednesday morning."
Liberals campaign promises (Source: the Canadian Press)
— Allow private renewable energy producers to sell electricity directly to consumers in what they say would break Nova Scotia Power's monopoly.
— Reduce the number of health boards from 10 to two.
— Reduce departmental spending except for Health and Education by one per cent annually.
— Cap classroom sizes to 20 for Primary to Grade 2 and 25 for Grades 3 to 6.
— Reduce the HST, but only if the province reaches a surplus that would offset the loss of revenue from the tax cut.
The total cost of the Liberal platform, according to the Canadian Press is $46.7 million annually over three years.
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