Rob Ford drops into also-ran status in latest Toronto mayoral poll

Rob Ford is expected to leave rehab and rejoin the Toronto mayoral race at the end of the month, but he'll be returning to a very different campaign than the one he left – one where he has dropped to also-ran status and holds an all-time low levels of support.

A new poll suggests that Ford now sits a distant third to candidates Olivia Chow and John Tory, with his numbers plummeting since he announced he had a drinking problem and went to rehab, as fresh allegations of crack cocaine use were made public.

A Forum Research poll released on Monday suggests Ford would pull in 20 per cent of the vote in a five-way race between himself, Chow, Tory, Karen Stintz and David Soknacki.

Ford's number has decreased in each of the past four monthly Forum polls.

Chow leads with 38 per cent support, a number that has increased in each of the past four polls.

John Tory now sits in second place with 28 per cent support, which has also increased in each of the past four polls. Soknacki and Stintz sit at five and four per cent respectively.

Ford's number is a notable drop from the 27 per cent Ford was said to have in mid-April, the last Forum poll before Ford took a temporary leave from the race after audio was released of an intoxicated Ford swearing, using racially offensive language and making crude sexual comments about another candidate. The same day, the Globe and Mail reported viewing another video of Ford smoking what is said to be crack cocaine, this time in his sister's basement.

"It's becoming clear that without his bully pulpit at city hall, Rob Ford is a relatively marginal player in the municipal arena, and the momentum is now with Chow and Tory," Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement. "His approvals continue to decline and Ford Nation continues to shrink, so there will be a lot of rebuilding to do when he returns."

Indeed, Ford's team has indicated that the mayor-in-exile will return at the start of July. Campaign manager Doug Ford has suggested that the campaign doesn't really begin until Ford returns. Though it seems that, for many, the decision may have already been made.

More than half of voters (57 per cent) polled by Forum say they would never vote for Ford – compared to 15 per cent who would never vote for Chow and six per cent who would never vote for Tory.

Voters who have indicated they will be voting for other candidates also strongly indicate they wouldn't consider switching to Ford.

And the number of people who say they will definitely be voting for Ford has also declined, from 29 per cent in April and 25 per cent in May to 22 per cent in June.

Meantime, two-thirds of those asked say Ford should resign as mayor, a number that remains unchanged since the latest crack cocaine scandal began.

While this all seems like dour news for Ford's re-election chances, supporters would be quick to remind us that the controversial councillor had been counted out when he ran to become mayor in 2010. Pundits have also suggested that underdog is a position that benefits Ford's messaging – his campaign has maintained a narrative of trying to stop the gravy train by pointing to Ford's marginalized role at city hall.

The upside for Ford, according to York University political scientist Dennis Pilon, is that much of Ford’s remaining support base is not likely to go anywhere.

“In many ways it reflects their political engagement. They are not the model of citizenship as it appears in the political science text book, where people are poring over the newspapers and checking the facts. This is an emotional attachment to a politician who appeals to them on a visceral level,” Pilon told Yahoo Canada News in a recent interview. “It’s always about, ‘He’s my guy, I like the way he sounds. He’s just like me, except he’s got $1 million.’”

The downside, according to Pilon and Forum’s latest numbers, is the section of the vote where Ford may be able to draw more support from has significantly shrunk. And considering that scandals and contentious headlines haven't stopped appearing while Ford's been away, it might be a steeper hill than Ford is prepared to climb.

“I wonder if he can climb back at this point,” Pilon mused. “When this last bit came out, I think he did test the patience of the last group. They were prepared to go with their guy. No one has produced a smoking gun. Suddenly there was a new smoking gun. In that sense, I think a lot of people who have been defending him all this time really felt shafted.”

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