2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

It is pretty fascinating to see the way in which the Oscar and Emmy season have overlapped into one mega season of campaigning for certain contenders. “Mary & George” star Julianne Moore, “Apples Never Fall” star Annette Bening, and “True Detective: Night Country” star Jodie Foster were all just in the mix for the Academy Awards at the beginning of the year (the latter two being nominated for the same film.)

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Momentum is a bit of a theme with the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie contenders this year, whether it’s the aforementioned actresses hoping the attention they got from the Oscars race carries over into their TV work, or past category winners like “Expats” star Nicole Kidman and “The Regime” star Kate Winslet building a personal brand in a way, that says “When I do a TV show, the TV Academy takes notice.”

The former actress actually has not been nominated since she won for “Big Little Lies,” which does come as a surprise when one thinks of the impact that “The Undoing” had on audiences (“Nine Perfect Strangers” not as much, but it did warrant a second season greenlight.) Meanwhile Winslet has taken a bit more time off from television, with “The Regime” being her first big role since “Mare of Easttown.”

Again, thinking about momentum, “Lessons in Chemistry” and “Griselda” are two contenders that premiered earlier than most of the pack, so while stars Brie Larson and Sofia Vergara, respectively, really do seem poised for nominations, there is always the worry that recency bias may eclipse any recognition of their work.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Annette Bening, “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
Emma Corrin, “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
Nicole Kidman, “Expats” (Prime Video)
Joey King, “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
Jessica Lange, “The Great Lillian Hall” (HBO)
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Aria Mia Lobereti, “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
Ambika Mod, “One Day” (Netflix)
Julianne Moore, “Mary & George” (Starz)
Juno Temple, “Fargo” (FX)
Sofia Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Kate Winslet, “The Regime” (HBO)
Ji-young Yoo, “Expats” (Prime Video)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Ali Wong, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: There is no network that is on a hot streak necessarily, as the last few years has seen performances on shows from different places be awarded, but there is a chance that Kate Winslet wins a second Emmy in a row for leading “The Regime,” her first series since “Mare of Easttown.”
Notable Ineligible Series: Anne Hathaway, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Dakota Johnson, “Am I Ok?” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); Eva Longoria, “Land of Women” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)

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