Alberta remains UCP bulwark outside biggest cities, but loses 2 seats to NDP

Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party dominated almost all ridings outside of Alberta's two largest cities in Monday's election — although still lost two seats to Rachel Notley's NDP.

As of early Tuesday, the UCP was projected to win most of the province's ridings, although the New Democratic Party flipped Banff-Kananaskis and Sherwood Park.

The UCP was projected to capture 90 per cent of the seats in Alberta's rural areas and smaller cities — 37 of the 41 outside Edmonton and Calgary. 

Geoffrey Hale, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Lethbridge, said the election night results show the UCP remain dominant in the rural constituencies tied to resources and agriculture.

Meanwhile, he said, the NDP slightly increased their share of the vote, mainly by siphoning off voters from the Alberta Party.

WATCH | Here are the final moments of the Alberta election night in 5 minutes:

"I think the two-party system in Alberta has consolidated," Hale said. "Certainly, small city Alberta has held onto its conservative orientation."

Here are the results in some of the most closely watched ridings:

Banff-Kananaskis 

As the votes slowly trickled in Monday night, Banff-Kananaskis at one point looked to be a lock for UCP incumbent Miranda Rosin, as she led by more than a thousand votes.

But as midnight approached, Rosin's lead narrowed. Then she lost it.

With all polls reporting early Tuesday, NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi was projected to win the riding by a margin of 200 votes.

"It doesn't matter to me who the premier is or who the party in power is, I will champion the needs of this riding in the same exact way," Elmeligi said.

The riding west of Calgary was created in 2017, when Cochrane was merged into a new district with Airdrie. With rolling green fields and postcard mountain peaks, the area is a hub for both agriculture and tourism.

Chief concerns among voters in the riding were housing and affordability, particularly in the tourist destinations of Banff and Canmore. These are among Elmeligi's top priorities, along with health care.

"A big focus for me is also looking at the eastern part of the riding and getting to know constituents out there, getting know them better and know their needs more," she said.

Maria Lynn, who voted Monday in Canmore, said she hoped to see the riding turn orange.

"I think we need change, and change that's good for the average Albertan — for education, health care, schooling, moderate policies," she said. "The NDP in Alberta are the middle of the ground. They are not as far left as people think they are."

Lethbridge

The city of Lethbridge, in southern Alberta, is split into two ridings, one to the east, the other to the west. Both incumbents won.

In Lethbridge-East, the UCP's Nathan Neudorf, a deputy premier and minister of infrastructure, held off the NDP's Rob Miyashiro. Neudorf was projected to win by roughly 750 votes.

In Lethbridge-West, the NDP's Shannon Phillips, a former Notley cabinet minister, defeated the UCP's Cheryl Seaborn. Phillips was projected to win by about 2,500 votes. She will serve a third term.

"This was a massive campaign on both sides of the dividing line," Phillips said. "The number of sign locations, volunteers, first-time NDP voters has been astonishing. We've done nothing but grow over the years."

In 2019, Phillips won much closer race, with a margin of 226 votes.

The original UCP candidate in Lethbridge-West, Torry Tanner, had to step down before the election began after an old video surfaced where she accused teachers of showing kids pornography and helping change students' gender identity without parental knowledge.

Morinville-St. Albert

Dale Nally was projected to win a second term in Morinville-St. Albert, north of Edmonton. The Service Alberta and red-tape reduction minister amassed just over half the vote, beating NDP candidate Karen Shaw by about 1,500 votes.

The NDP had hoped Shaw, who was a Sturgeon County councillor for four terms and operates a family farm in the area, could oust Nally from the riding, which was created in the 2019 election.

Sherwood Park

The NDP's Kyle Kasawski flipped Sherwood Park, east of Edmonton, to orange, and was projected to beat incumbent UCP candidate Jordan Walker by nearly 1,700 votes.

Walker had narrowly won the district in 2019. He served one term as an MLA. 

Brooks-Medicine Hat 

UPC Leader Danielle Smith successfully defended her seat in Brooks-Medicine Hat, projected to win 66 per cent of the vote.

Smith wasn't the only party leader in the race for the riding east of Calgary. Barry Morishita, of the Alberta Party, was also on the ballot, winning just over six per cent of the vote.

Smith has held the seat in Brooks-Medicine Hat since winning a byelection last November, after UCP MLA Michaela Frey resigned to make space for her in the wake of the leadership contest. Smith won the byelection with 54 per cent of the vote.

"I'd also like to thank the great people of Brooks-Medicine Hat," Smith said. "You've entrusted me with the responsibility of representing and advocating for your interests. And I am honoured and humbled. I'm indebted to you and to all the volunteers. And I will continue fighting for you as your MLA."

Gwendoline Dirk, the NDP candidate, came in second Monday night, with a projected 27 per cent of the vote. She also came in second in the byelection in November, garnering similar support.

Lacombe-Ponoka

In the central Alberta riding of Lacombe-Ponoka, Jennifer Johnson was projected to win under the UCP banner, even though the UCP has said she won't have a place in the caucus.

Last week, Smith said it was her "final" decision to exclude Johnson over remarks she made in a leaked recording last September comparing transgender children in schools to feces in a batch of cookies.

In that recording, Johnson also said a Red Deer school had litter boxes in classrooms for students who identify as cats.

Johnson has since apologized for the language she used in the recording, saying that she would speak about her concerns over transitioning children in a more respectful way.

In Monday's election, Johnson soundly defeated NDP candidate Dave Dale by more than 9,200 votes.