Analysis: What we learned about TCU before Big 12 play

With 2024 just a few days away, it’s almost time for TCU to begin Big 12 play in what has become the nation’s toughest men’s basketball conference.

Before traveling to Kansas on Jan. 6, TCU has one more tune up against Texas A&M Commerce on New Year’s Day. Based on what we’ve seen from TCU (10-2) through the first dozen games of the season, it’s likely the Horned Frogs will collect another blowout.

That’s among the few things we learned about this TCU team so far. Nine of TCU’s 10 wins have been by at least 14 points or more including a 79-59 win over Arizona State on Dec. 16 at Dickies Arena.

When the offense is rolling and TCU is getting out on the fast break, there’s not much many teams can do with them as the Horned Frogs are currently No. 1 in the country in fast-break points at 24.6 points per game. No other team averages more 20.

TCU is among the most disruptive defenses in the country and ranks No. 8 in steals per game. This is a team that’s built to run and excel in the open court. For the most part, the Horned Frogs have accomplished that.

While there have been some encouraging signs from the 10-2 start, there are also some fair questions that the Horned Frogs will need to address against Big 12 opponents.

Here are four more things we learned during TCU’s first dozen games:

Half court offense remains a question

When TCU gets in transition, the offense is a pretty sight to see. But what about when the Horned Frogs face a disciplined team that doesn’t give the ball away to set up those fast-break points? Well, it’s been a bit of a slog for TCU in those situations.

Take the first loss against Clemson when TCU did a good job getting in transition with 19 points, but only shot 32 percent from the field overall. The entire starting lineup shot around 30 percent in the 74-66 defeat.

In Hawaii, the Horned Frogs also fell to a likely NCAA Tournament team in Nevada 88-75. TCU scored 19 fast-break points again, but it felt like empty calories as the Wolf Pack led by nearly 20 points at one point. Nevada only turned it over eight times and was surgical in how the offense attacked TCU’s defense. There’s no shame in losing to these two teams, but it was still disappointing with those matchups being TCU’s only shot at a marquee non-conference wins.

Returnees have taken a leap

Emanuel Miller, Micah Peavy and JaKobe Coles all returned with something to prove after solid seasons in 2022. Miller tested NBA draft waters, but eventually returned to school to continue to improve his outside shooting and perimeter defense. Miller has shown strides and is TCU’s leading scorer and rebounder with 16.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. He’s hitting 37 percent of his 3s, but will need to increase his volume to continue to impress scouts.

Peavy and Coles were key reserves a year ago, but only started a combined nine games. With TCU needing to replace Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh, the Horned Frogs needed more scorers to step up and these two have answered it with both averaging over 11 a game. Peavy’s continued to show his two-way versatility and even had his first career triple double against Arizona State.

Coles has often look like TCU’s best option in the half court with his effective mid-range game. Coles is also shooting 38 percent from 3.

Transfer impressions

TCU signed one of the most highly regarded transfer classes this off-season led by Delaware transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. and Kansas big man Ernest Udeh. Nelson has been productive with over 11 points a night on 40 percent shooting, though he hasn’t quite been able to completely replace the production of Miles.

Nelson was a combined 3 of 21 in losses to Clemson and Nevada and will need to be better against the toughest competition. When he’s producing, he’s shown flashes of being a strong guard that can score and create for others off dribble penetration. Udeh has also shown flashes of his talent with numerous alley-oop dunks and emphatic blocks through the first part of the season, but he’s averaging less than four points and only 15 minutes a game.

Part of that is the ongoing rotation of big men Jamie Dixon has used with Xavier Cork and Coastal Carolina transfer Essam Mostafa averaging around the same numbers. Avery Anderson (Oklahoma State) and Trey Tennyson (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) have provided quality depth off the bench. TCU has to feel satisfied with the early returns on the newcomers, but more will be needed come January.

Into the fire

TCU is getting thrown into the deep end to start league play with a road game at No. 2 Kansas followed by home games vs. No. 3 Houston and No. 12 Oklahoma. The next game after that? TCU’s first trip to Cincinnati which hasn’t lost at home this season.

The tough conference slate is one reason Dixon wasn’t worried about the questions regarding TCU’s strength of schedule in the non-conference. Those four games alone are currently Quad 1 opportunities that would significantly boost TCU’s at-large resume, but more opportunities for big wins also means more opportunities for more losses.

So what conference record would it take for TCU to feel good about making the NCAA tournament? Last year’s squad got in at 9-9, the previous year the Horned Frogs were 8-10. A similar showing should be enough, but with the Big 12 being deeper than ever there’s still a ton of pressure on TCU to start fast. A win over a top-15 opponent could be just what TCU needs to spark a run.