Apple TV+ Is a Hit Factory – but Can It Scale? | Charts

Apple TV+ has built a reputation for quality original content, whether it is through the star-studded casting of series like “The Morning Show” or the stunning visuals of its many sci-fi series. Focusing on building a smaller catalog of original series has enabled the service to make sure it has more hits than misses without relying on licensed series to round out its programming. All of this has helped Apple TV+ have the best batting average when it comes to delivering hits with its original content.

So far this year, 50.8% of Apple TV+ original series had twice or more the average series demand for shows in the U.S., making it the only major American streamer to have a majority of its originals surpass this threshold. Shows that have more than twice the average series demand are in the top 11.5% of all series. We see a similar result if we look at global demand for these shows: 46.9% of Apple TV+ shows were above that demand threshold globally.

Focusing in on the top tier of most in-demand shows, those with over 32 times the average series demand, we can again see Apple TV+ with the best success rate. “Ted Lasso” is the one Apple TV+ show whose average demand for the year to date is over 32 times average. While Netflix has two shows with over 32 times the average demand so far this year (“Stranger Things” and “The Witcher”), Netflix has a far lower hit rate, given its massive number of original series compared to Apple TV+.

Why does a streamer’s hit rate matter? From an efficiency perspective, we can think of it as answering the question “How many shows do you have to make to get a hit?”

At Apple TV+, every other show reaches this level, while at Netflix the hit rate is more like one in five. In all fairness to more mature services like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video, once you reach a certain scale, the best path to subscriber growth is by targeting niche or geographic-specific audiences you haven’t yet reached. The shows that achieve this aren’t necessarily going to be the biggest hits.

And remember that when we consider demand for all shows and movies on a service, Apple TV+ is still a minnow compared to most other streamers. Facing services with enormous libraries of content means it is less likely that users will make Apple TV+ their default streaming home. While curating a service with significantly fewer series makes it easier for Apple TV+ to maintain its sterling reputation for quality, whether Apple will be able to scale this up to a comparable size with the competition remains to be seen.

Christofer Hamilton is an industry insights manager at Parrot Analytics, a WrapPRO partner. For more from Parrot Analytics, visit the Data and Analysis Hub.

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