Do byelections matter?

On Monday night — after Elections Canada announces the results of four federal byelections — we'll hear two very different answers to the question: Do byelections matter?

The winners will tell us that they do. They'll say that they're a harbinger for a general election — a referendum on the government, if you will.

The losers will invariably have a different spin: They'll say we should pay little attention to the results — that byelections are unique in that they give voters the opportunity to cast a protest-vote and are sometimes dependent on local issues and star candidates.

So, which narrative should we believe?

As with most things, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

[ Related: Can Justin Trudeau continue his winning ways on byelection Monday? ]

According to the latest Forum Research byelection poll, the Tories are poised to retain their seat in Provencher (Manitoba), while the Liberals will keep there's in Bourassa (Quebec) and Toronto Centre (Ontario). The NDP is expected to be very competitive in Bourassa and Toronto Centre.

But, in Brandon-Souris — which was held by Tory Merv Tweed — Forum is predicting a convincing victory for the Grits.

Sun News personality Warren Kinsella says we should pay attention to what happens Monday — especially in Brandon Souris.

"Campaigns matter. And by-election campaigns matter plenty," Kinsella, who has been through his share of byelections as a former staffer of Jean Chretien, told Yahoo Canada News.

"The one in Brandon-Souris in particular. My friend and bandmate Rolf Dinsdale has erased a 60 point Conservative lead set in 2011. And he's about to turn a blue Tory stronghold bright Liberal red.

"If the [Conservatives] lose Brandon-Souris - and I believe they will - get ready for a lot of speculation about when and if Harper is going to go for a walk in the snow."

The Canadian Press suggests that the byelections will give us an indication of how the Senate expense scandal has affected the popularity of the Tories. They also claim that Toronto Centre and Bourassa will be an indication of how Thomas Mulcair is fairing as the leader of the NDP.

"New Democrats have poured all their resources into the two ridings, hoping to at least make a significant dent in the Liberals' margin of victory and, thus, prove they still have momentum under Mulcair, who took over the helm in 2012 after the untimely death of the popular Jack Layton," notes a CP byelection analysis.

"Snatching either riding from the Liberals would be a coup, touted as a sign that Trudeau is no match for the more experienced Mulcair, who has won praise for his prosecutorial questioning of Harper on the Senate scandal."

[ Related: Byelections a litmus test for opposition strength, Senate scandal impact ]

And pollster Nik Nanos says the byelections are akin to a referendum on all three federal leaders.

"For Stephen Harper, we're going to learn whether Conservatives are really angry with him [about the Senate expense scandal] and whether they stay home," Nanos told CBC News.

"For Thomas Mulcair, we're going to see whether his troops are bolstered by his performance in the House of Commons. And even for Justin Trudeau, we're probably going to get a sense of whether Liberals are motivated to come out and support the Liberal team in order for the Liberals to do well.

"It's a bit like three referendums in one."

So, do byelections matter?

They obviously matter to the journos and pollsters. So, if we believe the premise that media effects public opinion, then yes — the byelections are very important.

But remember, there are two long years between now and the next election.

Byelection overview:

Bourassa (Quebec):

- Poll: Emmanuel Dubourg (LPC) 43 per cent; Stephane Moraille (NDP) 31 per cent; Daniel Mailhot (BQ) 15 per cent

- Incumbent: Denis Coderre (LPC)

- Results from last election: LPC: 40.9 per cent; NDP: 32.3 per cent; BQ: 16.1 per cent; CPC: 8.8 per cent

Toronto Centre (Ontario):

- Poll: Chrystia Freeland (LPC) 47 per cent; Linda McQuaig (NDP) 39 per cent; Geoff Pollock (CPC) 11 per cent

- Incumbent: Bob Rae (LPC)

- Results from last election: LPC: 41.0 per cent; NDP: 30.2 per cent; CPC: 22.6 per cent

Brandon-Souris (Manitoba):

- Poll: Rolf Dinsdale (LPC) 59 per cent; Larry Maguire (CPC) 30 per cent; Cory Szczepanski (NDP) 6 per cent

- Incumbent: Merv Tweed (CPC)

- Results from last election: CPC: 63.7 per cent; NDP: 25.2 per cent; GPC: 5.7 per cent; LPC: 5.4 per cent

Provencher (Manitoba):

- Poll: Ted Falk (CPC) 48 per cent; Terry Hayward (LPC) 37 per cent

- Incumbent: Vic Toews (CPC)

- Results from last election: CPC: 70.6 per cent; NDP: 17.9 per cent; LPC: 6.7 per cent

(Photo courtesy of the Canadian Press)

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