Different polls tells very different stories about Ontario election

It's no wonder that Canadians have soured on our pollsters.

In the past 24 hours, two different polls about the Ontario election were released through media outlets. One says the Tim Hudak Tories have a commanding lead while the other claims that the Kathleen Wynne Liberals have a slight edge over the PCs.

Which one should Ontarians believe?

[ Related: Hudak following footsteps of former Ontario Premier Mike Harris in newly unveiled platform ]

Polling analyst extraordinaire Eric Grenier tried to make sense of it all in his blog at ThreeHundredEight.com.

Looking at common trends in both polls, he suggests that the PCs are making gains in the total population but that the Liberals are gaining more among 'likely voters' — people who are likely to vote.

He also notes that, in both polls, it looks like the PCs are gaining support in the Greater Toronto Area.

"We still don't have much of an idea of where things stand in Ontario," he writes.

"But the evidence seems to point to a PC advantage of some sort, with the Liberals possibly making gains. This is as good as it gets in terms of discerning what is going on in this campaign right now."

[ More Ontario election coverage: Unions mobilizing against Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak ]

Pollsters will tell you that discrepancies in polling numbers in the midst of an election campaign are nothing new. It also happened in the 2011 provincial election.

At one point, the predictions became so wacky Ipsos Reid's Darrel Bricker felt it necessary to pen an open letter calling out "marginal" pollsters and media outlets who published their work.

One of the great equalizers in the polling industry, however, is results can always be measured.

And, when it comes down to it, Canada's pollsters have historically been pretty accurate.

According to a 2011 statement by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA), "election polls were consistently accurate for Canada’s [2006 and 2008] federal elections."

Andrew Heard, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University, compared opinion poll results of the 2011 federal election campaign to actual election results on his website. He also found the pollsters' final projections were accurate in that election

So maybe we shouldn't just give up on the public polling industry — not just yet.

(Photo courtesy of The Canadian Press)

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