A minority government looming in Ontario as Liberals and PCs are neck and neck

Throughout much of the Ontario election campaign, the pollsters have been all over the place.

But, as sometimes 'magically' occurs — on the final days of the election — they have now converged and essentially agree on what's happening in terms of public opinion.

Three of the country's most respected polling companies — Ekos, Ipsos and Abacus — all conclude that the Kathleen Wynne Liberals and Tim Hudak Progressive Conservatives are neck and neck ahead of Thursday's election.

EKOS (%)















"It doesn't get any closer than this," Ekos President Frank Graves wrote in his latest daily report.

"In what has been a pretty remarkable campaign we have nearly unprecedented murkiness in terms of the final outcome.

"For all intents and purposes, we now see a dead heat in terms of all eligible voters for the third night in a row."

[ Related: Journalists’ union piles on against Hudak's Ontario PCs; members take issue with message ]

While Ekos doesn't make any seat count predictions, the Globe and Mail's Adam Radwanski notes that the Tories and the Liberals "appear to genuinely believe they are on track to win minority government."

"Liberals and Progressive Conservatives confirm that their private opinion research showed the same phenomenon as some publicly available polls – a shift of support late last week away from Kathleen Wynne’s party, primarily benefitting Tim Hudak’s," Radwanski wrote.

[ Related: Should newspapers publish election endorsements? ]

The prospect of another minority government in Ontario should immediately elicit a lot of 'what ifs'?

If the Liberals win a minority, we're likely to see a repeat of the last legislature: A Wynne government propped-up by the NDP.

The election would have been all for not.

If the PCs win a minority, things will get very interesting.

On Tuesday, both Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwath insisted that they would not cooperate with Hudak.

"I'm going to say very clearly. I call bullspit on the idea that we will have a coalition with Tim Hudak," Horwath told reporters.

Wynne took a similar stand.

"I want to be clear that I would never support a Tim Hudak government," the Liberal leader said, according to the Globe and Mail.

"Because what he is proposing would be so detrimental and would have such a negative impact on so many peoples’ lives in this province, that it’s not something I would countenance."

Does that mean the Liberals and NDP would form a coalition? Does that mean that Wynne and Horwath would trigger another quickie election?

If the polls hold true, it looks like we're in for some interesting times

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