Can Rob Ford still win the mayoral election?

Rob Ford is down but is he out?

On Wednesday, as explained by Yahoo's Matthew Coutts, media reports revealed new seedy details of what Toronto's mayor has been up to.

The Globe and Mail had images of Ford smoking from what appears to be a crack pipe. The Toronto Sun had audio of Ford allegedly making vulgar and sexist comments about mayoral candidate Karen Stintz.

Ford has, appropriately, temporarily stepped down from office to seek treatment.

The new controversies, however, have led analysts to opine about Ford's future. Most believe that Ford's career as mayor is over — that he cannot be re-elected in October.

But can he?

CBC News was on the streets of Etobicoke — Ford's home community — where people said they still supported him. Newstalk 1010 had, as a guest, a member of Ford Nation essentially urging the media to leave the mayor alone.

Moreover, despite all his previous scandals — which also included a crack video, homo-phobic rants and misogynist comments — Ford was still polling well. Some recent polls even suggested that he could be re-elected.

[ Related: Mayor Rob Ford urged to resign after new recordings send him seeking treatment ]

Insights West pollster, Mario Canseco says that the latest revelations are uncharted territory for everyone.

"There are two things at play. One of them is that the so-called Ford Nation was never in denial about the problems that Mayor Ford was facing, so the discovery of the new videos may not dent his popularity with this group. But, on the other hand, last night's revelations reinforce the narrative from the opposition that Ford should not be in office anymore. Still, it is too early to tell where the anti-Ford vote will go," Canseco told Yahoo Canada News.

"Can he come back? The best previous example of an incumbent caught doing drugs would be Marion Barry in the District of Columbia. But the comeback took longer than a few months. Barry "sat out" a full term before returning. Ford only has a few months to achieve his comeback."

Ekos Research President Frank Graves echoed Canseco's comments.

"My guess is that this will go way past the critical mass of public tolerance (if that tipping point hadn't already occurred)," Graves — who says he has no new polling evidence in Toronto — wrote in an email exchange with Yahoo.

"At best he should be regrouping for the longer term and getting his life in order. The public may welcome him back after a sufficient period of serious self repair. But the idea that the period could be plausibly compressed in to the period available before the next election. Even the most patient/oblivious/unconcerned have to question his basic fitness for office in the immediate future."

[ Related: Rob Ford admits to substance abuse problems, Twitter explodes]

Political strategist Jamie Watt weighed-in on CBC essentially suggesting the same thing — that taking a leave a few months before the election doesn't really help Ford politically.

But Watt, who is chair of public relations firm Navigator, offered this glimmer of hope for Ford-Nation.

"The one thing about being a way a month or eight weeks..in rehab is he will come back looking much much better. He'll lose weight because he will have a better diet. Hell get some fresh air and some exercise, Watt said.

"And maybe when he comes back, the fact that he'll physically looked change, that might help prove to people that he's worth giving another chance to."

What do you think?

Does Rob Ford still have a chance to win the election on October 27th?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

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