Wildrose Party's future in jeopardy as countdown begins to Danielle Smith's departure

"Wildrose Party set for sweeping majority"

That was one of many newspaper headline, created in the days before the 2012 Alberta general election, predicting that Danielle Smith’s party would form government and that she would be premier.

Smith didn’t win that election, the Progressive Conservatives did, and that sort of talk now feels like a lifetime ago.

After rebounding — in the opinion polls, at least — during the Alison Redford spending scandal, there are now questions about the Wildrose Party’s future.

The party’s latest misfortunes can be attributed to several factors, one of which is the election of former federal cabinet minister Jim Prentice as PC leader and premier.

"I would say that the situation is pretty tough for Wildrose," Mario Canseco, Vice President of Alberta-based polling company Insight’s West, told Yahoo Canada News,

"I think they had a wonderful issue they exploited brilliantly this year, when the government announced their license plate changes," he said, referring to the Alberta government’s decision to redesign their licence plates, sans the slogan Wildrose Country.

"They capitalized on the anger from the public, which was evident in the fact that even PC voters hated the changes, but then it was a matter of waiting for whoever came after Redford."

Prentice’s popularity helped buoy the PCs to a sweep of four byelections on October 27th.

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt says that Smith and the Wildrose have been “scrambling” ever since then.

"Serious questions are being asked about their campaign strategy. For example, running TV ads — unprecedented for a bylection — that were negative,” Bratt said in an email to Yahoo Cananda News.

"With election losses come soul searching. As Smith framed it: Does [the Wildrose Party] want to be the NDP of the right or be the [government] in waiting? Battle between moderates and ideologues is on."

Following the byelection fiasco, things have gone from bad to worse.

Last weekend, the party held their annual general meeting in Red Deer where the membership voted against amending a clause in their constitution which said a Wildrose government would defend the rights of all people “regardless of race, religious belief, colour, gender, physical disability, mental disability, age, ancestry, place of origin, marital status, source of income, family status or sexual orientation of that person or class of persons.”

Instead, according the Canadian Press, party members chose to keep their existing language which says that “all Albertans have equal rights, privileges and responsibilities.”

The move has evoked memories of the ‘bozo eruptions’ that likely cost them the 2012 election. During that campaign, Wildrose candidates consistently became their party’s worst enemies with dumb comments about minority groups. Of note was one candidate’s homophobic blog — about gays roasting “in a lake of fire” — that was discovered and shared with the media.

Bratt says that defeating the motion on equality rights at the AGM — a motion that Smith supported — was a “disaster.”

"Where was the leadership on that vote? Smith wasn’t even in the room," he said.

Bratt does note, however, that Wildrose MLAs have a chance to redeem themselves in terms of appearing to be inclusive. A Liberal MLA is poised to introduce a motion to force the province’s schools to support student-led gay-straight alliances.

Smith has indicated that she’ll vote in favour of the bill leaving individual caucus members to vote as they see fit.

"If most WRP MLAs vote yes it will help the party," Bratt said.

Meanwhile, some are already counting down to the end of Smith’s reign as leader.

At the AGM last weekend, Smith told delegates that if Wildrose doesn’t win the next election — scheduled for 2016 — she’ll step down.

The comment resulted in a new website called 500daysfordanielle.com. As of press time, the anonymous website author(s) suggest that Smith has about 495 days and 5 hours left until she resigns.

For Smith — and for her party — it has been a two year roller-coaster ride.

With Jim Prentice as premier, party disunity and more bozo eruptions, could that ride be coming to an end?