Could a fat tax curb Canada’s surging obesity rates?

Get ready for more hand-wringing over the collective thickening of Canada's waistline in the wake of a new report showing obesity rates have tripled since 1985.

The study published this week in the Canadian Medical Association Journal found that between 1985 and 2011 there were "significant increases" in the categories of those considered excessively overweight.

The researchers predicted the trend to increased obesity would continue up to 2019, when 20 per cent of Canadians would be classed as obese, compared with 18 per cent in 2011 and just six per cent in 1985.

You're overweight if you have a body-mass index (BMI) of between 25 and 29.9. A BMI of 30 or more is considered obese, which is split into three classes, with the worst being BMI of 40 or more. Class 2 obesity increased 350 per cent and Class 3 soared 433 per cent, CBC News pointed out.

Obesity seems to increase as you travel from west to east (though Quebec rivals B.C. for the lowest rates), with New Brunswick reporting the highest rate of Class 3 obesity at 2.8 per cent, CBC News noted. But all provinces recorded increases in obesity.

"To address these projected increases and any subsequent burden on the health care system, a concerted effort must be made by the provinces to focus on the prevention, management and treatment of obesity in Canada," the study's authors said in their summary.

But the question is how? We've been inundated for years with messages to get off the couch, exercise, cut out the junk food and their empty calories. There are reality shows dedicated to weight loss. Yet the trend continues.

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“I do not believe we’ve experienced an epidemic loss of willpower since 1980,” Dr. Yoni Freedhoff, medical director of the Bariatric Institute in Ottawa, told the Globe and Mail. “I think the world around us has changed.”

Governments have moved to ban junk food from school cafeterias and vending machines and bar fast-food ads directed at kids, the Globe noted. Other steps are being contemplated, such as following the U.S. lead in improving the nutrition labels on food products, and Ontario's proposed law requiring restaurants to put calorie counts on menus.

Others have urged a more radical approach: a tobacco- and alcohol-style sin tax on fatty foods.

The Manitoba NDP government considered imposing a fat tax but rejected the idea after researching its impact in other jurisdictions. Finance Minister Jennifer Howard told the Winnipeg Sun they found taxes on high-sugar and/or high-fat foods didn't induce people to cut back.

"I want to say clearly we are not going to introduce this kind of tax. It's not something under consideration for this budget," said Howard said last month. "Having this kind of tax on certain kinds of food doesn't accomplish the goal, is hard to administer, and it's just not something we're going to do."

According to the Manitoba research, which the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation obtained under access-to-information legislation, fat taxes would fall disproportionately on poorer people who buy cheap, calorie-laden processed foods. It would also only marginally reduce consumption of sugary, fatty and salty foods and have very little impact on obesity rates.

[ Related: Fat tax not on Manitoba's menu: gov't study showed problems ]

Manitoba looked at taxes levied on sugar-sweetened drinks in U.S. jurisdictions, sweets in Norway, soft drinks and baked goods in Australia and similar taxes in other countries, from France to Fiji.

Canadian Business Magazine reported last March that Denmark was the first to introduce a fat tax in 2011 – covering products with more than 2.3 per cent saturated fats. It drove up prices of some products such as butter by 20 per cent.

But just 13 months after imposing the tax, the Danish government dropped it, along with a planned tax on sugar. While Danes are among the most taxed people on Earth, the fat tax was one tax too many, apparently.

The tax turned out to be complicated and confusing – jalapeno peppers in oil were taxed, as was dried fruit packed on oiled paper, but nuts were exempt despite high fat levels, Canadian Business said.

The tax also hit the Danish economy as many Danes opted for shopping excursions to neighbouring Germany, where they were already going for cheaper booze. It was also seen as unnecessary because Danes have among the lowest obesity rates of all developed countries.

On a hopeful note, the New York Times reported last month that obesity rates among U.S. children aged two to five dropped by 43 per cent over the last decade, suggesting parents are starting to get the message about establishing healthy eating habits at a young age.

Still, the battle against obesity is likely to be long. But it looks like a fat tax won't be widely deployed as a weapon.