Rob Ford’s ‘redemption narrative’ very much in play for Toronto mayoral election

The scuffed and seething survivors of the embattled Ford Nation – the vocal support base for Toronto's mayor-in-exile Rob Ford – are surely keeping themselves warm at night with dreams of a grand redemption narrative.

Picture it: A sharper, sober Rob Ford returns from a month-long vision quest and announces to the electorate that he is a changed man.

Yes, Toronto has heard that before. But this time there's proof. He's been out of the spotlight for 30 days, give or take a few, while receiving treatment. His skin is cleaner, he's eating better. His suits fit a little nicer. And he declares that he is cured from his addiction to alcohol.

No, he didn't find Jesus. He's used that line before. This time, he has found himself. He's a changed man, a better man, and he's really sorry.

Imagine the streets erupting in celebration. Forget the sexist, misogynistic, racist and otherwise offensive things that he has said. Forget the vile and hate that he once gleefully spewed. This is the New Rob Ford. He's conservative and he's clean. Basically, he's John Tory with better sound bites.

Whether it is true or not is of little importance. Rob Ford would only have to shine it on for five months. Come Election Day on October 27, he'll either be mayor or he won't. After that, he can sin in peace as a private citizen, or power up the crazy train for another four years.

[ Related: Rob Ford the exception to Canadian media’s reluctance to resort to chequebook journalism ]

As the entire world has heard, Rob Ford announced this week he would step down as mayor and seek help for alcohol abuse. There was no mention of drugs, but regardless.

This comes as reports surfaced about video in which he was smoking what has been said to be crack cocaine and audio in which he was caught in a drunken stupor acting aggressively, using racial epithets and suggesting he's like to have violent sex with a rival mayoral candidate.

He has given himself 30 days to beat those demons, though others in his camp have suggested there is no timeline.

There will always be the question of what kind of treatment Ford is receiving. His lawyer, Dennis Morris, told CTV News' Katie Simpson that Ford was checking into a treatment facility, but public statements from the family itself have dodged the specifics.

"Rob has faced his problems and has decided to seek professional help," Doug Ford, Rob's brother and campaign manager, told reporters. His mother Diane said simply, "He's doing what he has to do, and that's good."

Rob Ford's public statement is perhaps the best indication of all.

Let's remember that Ford had made ambiguous vows to seek treatment in the past. After confessing to crack cocaine use last year, he vowed to seek help. That help turned out to be a personal trainer who helped him implement an exercise regime.

It would be impossible, and perhaps somewhat reckless, to hound Ford for the specifics of his treatment at this point. He has flown to Chicago, and who knows where after that.

Ford deserved privacy if he is actually seeking to rehabilitate himself and address his substance abuse issues. But the people of Toronto deserve to know that he is actually doing it. If he's not, it's just a matter of when another breakdown will come. Will it be before or after the election?

[ Related: Can Rob Ford still win the mayoral election? Pollsters weigh in ]

By all accounts, Ford's re-election campaign will continue. By all accounts, Ford's camp still considers him a contender, if not a favourite.

His re-election chances will be a matter of debate for as long as he is away. Mark Sherwin, president of the Toronto PR firm CorpWorld Group, told CBC News that Ford could easily sell this as a redemption story.

"What he can do is admit, 'I'm at a crossroads, I need to change … I'm going to change who I am and how I behave.' Some people would lap that up," Sherwin said.

Insights West pollster Mario Canseco told Yahoo's Andy Radia the question fell into uncharted territory.

"[T]he so-called Ford Nation was never in denial about the problems that Mayor Ford was facing, so the discovery of the new videos may not dent his popularity with this group. But, on the other hand, [the recent] revelations reinforce the narrative from the opposition that Ford should not be in office anymore," he said.

Other pollsters have said Rob Ford doesn't have enough time before the Oct. 27 election to recover from this latest bombshell. Or that he simply won't have the political capital left to convince Toronto he's ready to be mayor again.

Care for some reckless speculation? At some point after Ford returns to the campaign trail, his team will take a critical look at whether he has a legitimate chance at re-election – decide whether the public is buying his story of redemption.

If the answer is no, Ford could pull out of the race and, wait for it, run for his old council seat. Candidates have until Sept. 12 to withdraw from nominations and file to run for another office, so it’s certainly possible.

Ward 2 – Etobicoke North, the riding he represented for 10 years before becoming mayor, is the most likely place for Ford to find solace. The incumbent, his brother Doug Ford, is not running for re-election and if Ford Nation remains strong anywhere, it will be there. On top of that, Rob and Doug have previously hinted that there would be a Ford running in Ward 2 by the time the election rolls around. Speculation was that it would be a young nephew, but this would make as much sense.

If Ford was elected to city hall as a councillor in October, he could return to being a contrarian thorn in the side of whomever is elected mayor, re-energize Ford Nation and set himself up for a mayoral push in the 2018 election.

If five months is too short a time for Ford's redemption narrative to take hold, what about four years and five months? Now, that would be a redemption story.

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