Supreme Court to decide Thursday whether to call Toronto Mayor Rob Ford back to court

After weeks of scandal involving allusions to dirty, grimy crack cocaine, street-level criminality, thugery and a guy named Slurpy, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford might be looking forward to a return to white-collar legalese.

Ford will learn later this week whether Canada's top court will hear an appeal on a case that nearly saw him thrown from office, but ultimately left him vindicated.

The Supreme Court of Canada will rule Thursday on whether a challenge pertaining to Ford's conflict of interest battle can move forward, according to the Toronto Star.

Remember, this case stems back to his time as councillor, when he used city letterhead to solicit lobbyists for donations to a private charity. Later, as mayor, Ford participated in a debate and voted to excuse himself from repaying $3,150 he had been ordered to return.

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A Superior Court judge found Ford to be in violation of the city's conflict of interest law. The decision was overturned on appeal on the grounds that council did not have the authority to order the repayment in the first place.

During his more than two years in office, Toronto's embattled mayor has never been far from controversy. But considering his current circumstances, a return to this mind-numbing bureaucratic court challenge might be a bit of a vacation.

Ford is three weeks into a scandal involving an alleged recording that shows him smoking from a crack pipe and a photograph of him posing with three young men who have either been killed or arrested and charged in participating in organized crime.

Handfuls of city hall staff have quit on him, reports from a variety of news sources have suggested Ford knows more about the circumstances behind the controversy than he is letting on, and Toronto police have declined to separate him from a massive investigation into a gun- and drug-running enterprise.

Here are three reasons why Ford might welcome the distraction of the conflict of interest case.

It is well-charted territory

Say what you will about the circumstances of the first go-around, but this conflict of interest charge is well-charted territory at this point. His lawyer, Alan Lenczner, has already successfully argued that the circumstances behind the questionable vote were improper. If the Supreme Court agrees with his opponent – that the decision raised fundamentally important legal questions – Lenczner already has his argument laid out piece-by-piece.

On the other hand, Ford has been improvising throughout this crack cocaine scandal. At first he refused to speak on the advice of his lawyer. Later he issued a carefully-worded statement, before lapsing back into an ignore-the-problem mindset. But new problems keep popping up, such as the police raid with reported links to the suspect video. Ford admitted he was given no advance warning on the raid and, when offered a chance to disavow a link to Ford, Chief Bill Blair declined.

In short, it is far simpler to battle a legal challenge you have already beaten once than address a controversy that follows no discernible path.

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Public perception

In both cases, Ford is on fairly solid footing in terms of maintaining his support base, at least.

During the original conflict of interest case, Ford argued that all he did was help raise funds for his high school football charity and accused his detractors of hating children. He claimed the lawsuit was a left-wing conspiracy, pointing to initial complainant Paul Magder as a frequent thorn in his side.

And lastly, he argued that letting a court remove a mayor from office is undemocratic. It was all catnip for his adoring Ford Nation. If the Supreme Court does allow an appeal, we can expect the outrage to grow exponentially.

Ford similarly deflects criticism in relation to the crack cocaine allegations, claiming the whole thing is a conspiracy led by the Toronto Star. He denies there is a video and says the idea of him smoking crack is ridiculous. His supporters have rightfully dug in their heels. Why abandon a mayor you love when a newspaper you hate claims the existence of something you can't see?

Recent surveys suggest Ford's approval rating was relatively unaffected by crack video scandal. But his denials are a house of cards that, if a video exists, is eventually released and verified, could quickly crumble.

The potential conclusion

The worst-case scenarios are a long way off and, in both cases, unlikely to every come into view. But if the original conflict ruling comes back into play, Ford is looking at immediate removal for office. When he found Ford guilty, in the later-overturned ruling, Justice Charles Hackland said Ford was free to run in the next municipal election. Although a longer ban had been possible.

Many assume that if Ford is removed from office in such an “undemocratic” way as being found guilty of improperly fundraising for a charity, he would be easily re-elected.

In terms of the crack video scandal, and again this is only if the scurrilous allegations against Ford are found to contain a nugget of truth, the result is less clear. If a video does come to light but no charges are laid, he would face renewed pressure to step down, from even some of his closes allies.

If he refuses, the province also has some ability to intervene. His reputation takes a hit and the possibility of a re-election bid becomes cloudier. And these are the possibilities that don’t involve police action.

The Supreme Court will announce whether an appeal is allowed early Thursday morning, without detailing the reasons for their decision. If they decide not to allow it, things return to normal and Ford puts another challenge into the "wins" column.

If it decides to allow the appeal, Ford returns to court and his lawyers go back to work. At least in court, no one is likely to hit him with a juice box.