Here’s our bout-by-bout breakdown of No. 7 Ohio State at No. 1 Penn State wrestling
Penn State’s wrestling match with Ohio State on Friday night will be the first time since the 2018-2019 season that the Nittany Lions face the Buckeyes inside Rec Hall.
Penn State won four matches in the second half of that dual, which saw Carson Kuhn throw Nathan Tomasello on the edge of the mat, breaking a sign. And Nick Nevills held Kyle Snyder, who was coming off winning the Olympics and his second NCAA title, to just a decision, securing the rallying win, 19-18.
This season’s matchup will see eight of ten bouts have ranked wrestlers face off. The 141-pound bout will be the highlight of the dual as it’ll be a top-5 tilt.
With a win, the Nittany Lions will be one win away from coach Cael Sanderson’s 200th career victory at the helm of the program.
Here’s a look at how we think things will go.
125 pounds: No. 3 Braeden Davis vs. No. 24 Brendan McCrone or Vinny Kilkeary
Nate Cobler: Look, it doesn’t matter who the Buckeyes put out here, it’s Davis’ bout to lose. He’s been rolling and I don’t see how he gets stopped here. Prediction: Davis by major decision.
Jon Sauber: The Nittany Lions have lacked high-end wrestlers at 125 pounds for long enough that it feels strange to be able to consistently pencil in victories for them at the weight. But with how Davis has wrestled this season, there’s not really much consideration as to whether he’ll take care of business against inferior wrestlers. He should keep his momentum rolling no matter what Friday night. Prediction: Davis by major decision.
133 pounds: No. 5 Aaron Nagao vs. No. 12 Nic Bouzakis
Cobler: This one should be as good as the one that follows it. The duo have the same 3-1 mark against common opponents. The loss that each of them have is to Michigan’s Dylan Ragusin. Nagao’s loss came in sudden victory where he was pinned in a funky position. Bouzakis lost to Ragusin last Friday, 15-6. This match can go either way, but look for Nagao’s top game to be the difference. Prediction: Nagao by decision in sudden victory.
Sauber: There aren’t many bouts in this dual that are likely to be close, but this is one of them. Nagao was pinned by Dylan Ragusin of Michigan in a matchup that was tightly contested. The result looks bad on paper but in reality it seems more like a fluke than a sign of things to come for the 133-pounder. This will likely be tight, but the edge still falls with Penn State in this one. Prediction: Nagao by decision.
141 pounds: No. 2 Beau Bartlett vs. No. 3 Jesse Mendez
Cobler: Should this dual begin at 125 pounds, which is fairly common for Penn State home duals, fans in attendance will have a treat early on. These two have a history — not so much as competitors, but as teammates. Bartlett told media on Tuesday that he and Mendez were on the same U20 World Team that competed in Russia three years ago. Bartlett earned a bronze medal. Mendez will be Bartlett’s toughest test on the season before facing No. 1 Real Woods of Iowa next week. Mendez is 18-1 with the loss coming against Pittsburgh’s Cole Matthews on Dec. 10. Prediction: Bartlett by decision in sudden victory.
Sauber: The Buckeyes’ best chance to earn a win Friday night will come at 141 pounds. Every Bartlett bout feels tighter than it should be because of his counter-attacking style, and this one will likely be no different. Mendez is the toughest matchup the Nittany Lion has faced all season. There’s a fairly good shot this one is going to finish as a low-scoring matchup that comes down to the wire. While Bartlett has earned his spot at No. 2 in the class, the upset chance is real here. Prediction: Mendez by decision.
149 pounds: No. 12 Tyler Kasak/David Evans vs. No. 9 Dylan D’Emilio
Cobler: Should Penn State win the first three bouts, D’Emilio will be Ohio State’s last shot from being shut out. Nittany Lions’ fans will be watching in anticipation to see who will come out between Kasak and Evans. Neither wrestler competed in the Maryland dual as they took part in the Mat Town Open at Lock Haven University. They faced each other in the 149-pound finals with Kasak coming out on top, 4-2. Look for Kasak to get the nod, and pick up another top-10 win. Prediction: Kasak by decision.
Sauber: We’ll see who comes out for the Nittany Lions at 149. Kasak has been rolling, and defeated Evans at the Mat Town open, giving him a distinct advantage to compete at the class for the rest of the year for Penn State. However, nothing is set in stone and Cael Sanderson didn’t commit to a starter when he spoke to the media Tuesday. Regardless of who it is, Penn State should be in position to earn another win. I’ll go with Kasak taking the mat and keeping his momentum rolling. Prediction: Kasak by major decision.
157 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines vs. Isaac Wilcox
Cobler: Haines has had his fair share of close matches this season. Two weekends ago, he had a pair of one-point victories. Haines needed a reversal against Michigan State’s Chase Saldate in the second ultimate tiebreaker period to win. He rebounded with a 16-0 technical fall of Maryland’s Michael North last weekend. Wilcox doesn’t pose too much of threat as Haines’ previous opponents. Prediction: Haines by technical fall.
Sauber: Haines has not been as dominant as some of his other top-ranked teammates this season when it comes to scoring bonus points, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue Friday night. This is where the dual should start to get out of hand in Penn State’s favor. Prediction: Haines by technical fall.
165 pounds: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink vs. No. 20 Bryce Hepner
Cobler: Mesenbrink has had quite the season. From making his Rec Hall debut with a 17-2 technical fall over Lehigh’s Jake Logan to nearly stalling out Michigan’s Cameron Amine, Mesenbrink looks like a national title contender. He hasn’t lost all year, and before the Maryland match, he won four straight matches against ranked opponents all with bonus points. He’ll add Hepner to the list of ranked foes beaten with bonus points. Prediction: Mesenbrink by technical fall.
Sauber: Mesenbrink has been a force since transferring into Penn State during the offseason and there’s no reason to think he’s going to stop anytime soon. He’s a takedown machine and a bonus points machine. This week, he’s got a chanced to take advantage of another opponent who isn’t in the same stratosphere as him. Prediction: Mesenbrink by fall.
174 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci vs. No. 11 Rocco Welsh
Cobler: Pennsylvania wrestling fans are familiar with both of these guys. They’ve combined for four PIAA titles — two a piece — and seven PIAA finals appearances — four for Welsh. Welsh came onto the scene as an eighth grader beating varsity-level wrestlers in PA Power Wrestling’s Surge tournament. Welsh is in his freshman campaign and is 12-2. His losses were identical 2-1 results against some high competition in Michigan’s Shane Griffith and Illinois’ Edmond Ruth. Starocci is just on a whole different level this season. It’s a level that appears to be that no one will knock him off from. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
Sauber: I don’t know that anyone is going to get close to stopping Starocci this year. He’s been great his entire career and has hit a gear this season that has made him look like he’s competing in a different sport than his opponents. Starocci is probably going to win another national title this year and it seems like he’s got a good shot to do it while going undefeated on the season. Walsh has been good this season with two tight losses to good wrestlers in Michigan’s Shane Griffith and Illinois’ Edmond Ruth, but Starocci is on another level. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
184 pounds: No. 5 Bernie Truax vs. Ryder Rogotzke/Seth Shumate
Cobler: Before last Friday’s dual with Michigan, Rogotzke hadn’t wrestled since the Midlands Championship at the end of December. He racked up a 21-0 technical fall on the Wolverines’ Jaden Bullock, who Truax beat, 4-1, two weeks ago. Shumate filled in for Rogotzke and went 2-1 with a pair of major decisions. Truax started the season winning his first five matches with bonus points in four of them. He suffered a loss to Oregon State’s Trey Munoz to open the new year, but hasn’t looked back since. Prediction: Truax by decision.
Sauber: Truax has been extremely productive since transferring to Penn State, with his only slip up coming against No. 4 Trey Munoz of Oregon State. This is another bout where it is unlikely to matter who Ohio State trots out there to take him on. Truax may not be the takedown machine Aaron Brooks is — and was as last year’s 184-pounder — but he’s still wrestling at a very high level. Prediction: Truax by major decision.
197 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks vs. No. 22 Luke Geog
Cobler: Geog had a loss to end 2023 and a loss to begin 2024, but they came against some tough opponents. North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay racked up a 22-7 technical fall on Geog in 2023. Cornell’s Jacob Cardenas topped Geog, 8-2, on Jan. 5. Hidlay and Cardenas are both ranked in the top 10. Since the loss to Cardenas, Geog has done nothing but win. Brooks has edged Hidlay three times in the past, so look for Brooks to continue his perfect season with a perfect bonus point streak too. Prediction: Brooks by technical fall.
Sauber: Speaking of Brooks, this one shouldn’t take too long. There isn’t a whole lot more to say at this point about how he’s wrestling this year — a trend at the higher weights for Penn State — and this is just a matter of whether he’s able to get an added bonus point by getting a fall rather than a technical fall. Prediction: Brooks by technical fall.
285 pounds: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet vs. No. 12 Nick Feldman
Cobler: As fans will be treated to a good one at the beginning of the dual between Bartlett and Mendez, they get another one at the end with Kerkvliet and Feldman. The Buckeyes wrestler is 18-3 on the year, and has been key to keeping Ohio State to only one dual loss. Against Michigan, the Buckeyes trailed 19-17 when Feldman took on Lucas Davison. The heavyweight topped Davison, 4-3, to give Ohio State a 20-19 win. At the beginning of January, Feldman topped Cornell’s Lewis Fernandes, 6-4, to lift the Buckeyes to a 21-20 win. Kerkvliet is better than Davison and Fernandes, and this dual will already be locked up, so Feldman won’t be able to pull of any more heroics. Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision.
Sauber: This has a chance to be more competitive than most of the rest of the dual, but Kerkvliet still has a distinct advantage. He’s the favorite at heavyweight for a reason this year now that both Gable Steveson and Mason Parris have moved on from college wrestling. He brings an athleticism advantage against most heavyweights and that will prove to be true once again when he takes on Feldman. Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision.
Final score
Cobler: Penn State has the opportunity to shut out one of its biggest rivals. However, they also have the opportunity to be down 9-3 after four bouts. The Nittany Lions wrestlers always shine bright on the big stage. Prediction: Penn State 38, Ohio State 0
Sauber: A shutout is absolutely within reach and I think it will come down to what Beau Bartlett does at 141 pounds. Mendez winning that bout would at least get the Buckeyes on the board, and that’s exactly what I have happening. Prediction: Penn State 38, Ohio State 3
No. 7 Ohio State (12-1, 4-0 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (7-0, 4-0)
When: 6:30 p.m. Friday
Where: Rec Hall
Radio: WOWY (103.1 FM)
TV: Big Ten Network
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
