Despite Sask. government fears, experts say net-zero emissions by 2035 possible and beneficial

While the Saskatchewan government pushes back against the federal government's plan to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, experts say the government needs to push for the goal and it's in their best interest.

Canada is preparing a draft of regulations that would lay its goal for a national net-zero energy grid by 2035, but provincial government leaders, and the head of SaskPower have voiced their concerns

"It's not feasible for us to acquire the capital material and labour needed to transition over 150 per cent of our generation system that took us 93 years to build in a short 12 years," SaskPower president and CEO Rupen Pandya said Tuesday, instead setting a goal for 2050, a deadline Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has also proposed.

According to Pandya, the province generates 5,437 megawatts of power, 65 per cent of which is fossil fuel-based power generation and the rest from non-emitting sources like wind and solar.

Without fossil fuel-based power, he argues, the province will depend on unreliable sources of power.

"Renewable generation such as wind and solar doesn't produce electricity when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine," he said.

The transition, he adds, will also cost more in Saskatchewan per taxpayer because of how spread out the power grid is with a smaller population.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe voiced similar concerns earlier in May, and he said the federal plan could hit the province in one of three ways: residents will be without enough power; they will be slammed by utility rate hikes to subsidize the transition; or the plan won't happen on time.

Move toward net zero faster: experts

David Maenz, a biochemistry professor at the University of Saskatchewan and the author of The Price of Carbon, said the government's plan to building interprovincial transmission corridors, which connect the power grids across borders, means having access to Manitoba hydro.

The province wouldn't be replacing base load with Manitoba hydro, he told CBC Blue Sky's Garth Materie, but would use it as a balancing factor while also turning to natural gas generation when it's needed rather than getting rid of it altogether.

Maenz also referenced the Canada Energy Regulator's model for Saskatchewan's electrical supply, under which in 2030 Saskatchewan would put 10 per cent of its electrical weight into hydro, 24 per cent into natural gas, 11 per cent into solar and 55 per cent into wind.

"We're not in this alone, the federal government is going to be a major player in supplying funds for SaskPower to decarbonize," he said.

LISTEN | Experts in climate change and sustainability respond to recent comments from Saskatchewan leaders:

Margot Hurlbert says the province isn't anticipating the costs of litigation if youth sue the province for slack climate action plans — which happened in Ontario, though the lawsuit was dismissed — or the damage from climate change effects.

Hurlbert is a Canada Research Chair in climate change, energy and sustainability policy as well as a joint justice department and sociology department professor with the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Regina.

"We're focusing on our power bills going up and that cost, without focusing on that climate change damage figure of what wildfires and what droughts and floods and the risk of extreme weather is to us," she said, stating those risks can increase exponentially depending on how emissions are changed.

"The more we're able to do now with mitigation or reducing the greenhouse gases that we're emitting saves us so much money in the future it pays for itself."

Hurlbert also argued that Saskatchewan has clean growth opportunities it's not fully realizing, like geothermal power sources. According to SaskPower's website, there are no geothermal power plants in Saskatchewan, but there is one underway.

Federal minister responds

On Tuesday, Minister of Environment and Climate Change of Canada Steven Guilbeault criticized Moe's comments stating "he hasn't even seen what the regulations will entail and what kind of flexibility mechanisms there will be."

The minister said he's hopeful the draft regulations will be published this summer.

Combating climate change is important, Guilbeault told CBC's Saskatoon Morning guest host Theresa Kliem, but he said the federal government wouldn't force a regulation that would make the lights go off.

LISTEN | Federal environment minister responds to Saskatchewan government comments about net-zero goals:

Guibeault called Moe's concerns that a 2035 deadline would leave Saskatchewan cities cold and in the dark, or at the mercy of spiking utility rates, "unrealistic" and called for the provincial government to discuss the issue with Ottawa.

"We are very mindful at the federal level of the necessity to have a grid that is reliable, that is affordable, as well, for Canadians."