‘Disorganized’ depression still forecast to form into Tropical Storm Josephine soon

A tropical depression moving through the Atlantic has become “disorganized,” but is still expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine sometime Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system is 1,075 miles east-southeast from the Northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts, according to a hurricane center advisory at 5 a.m. Thursday.

Satellite imagery and radar data show that the depression, which forecasters described to be “struggling” late Wednesday, is beginning to show some new convection forming closer to its estimated center early Thursday, according to the hurricane center.

This “suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place ... Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term,” forecasters wrote.

The depression is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine sometime Thursday as it moves toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. It is then expected to turn toward the northwest later this weekend or early next week.

Forecasters say the storm will sweep well to the north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend before curving northeast into the open ocean, where it will weaken back to a tropical depression and fizzle out.

If the system forms into Tropical Storm Josephine Thursday, as is expected, it would be the 10th named storm of the season and would break the record for the earliest J-named storm to form. The record is held by Jose, which formed on August 22, 2005.

NOAA recently updated its 2020 hurricane season predictions upward to 19 to 25 named storms, a record-breaking prediction.

The most active hurricane season on record, 2005, saw 28 named storms, including Katrina, Rita and Wilma. There were so many storms, the hurricane center had to start naming new ones after letters in the Greek alphabet.