Does Mitch McConnell have enough votes to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg?

Yahoo Finance Editor-in-chief Andy Serwer, HuffPost Washington Bureau Chief Amanda Terkel, Yahoo News Editor-in-Chief Dan Klaidman, and Yahoo News Senior Political Correspondent Jon Ward discuss whether Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell can garner enough votes to fill the vacant Supreme Court seat left behind due to Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing.

Video Transcript

ANDY SERWER: Welcome back. We're joined now by "Yahoo News" senior political correspondent Jon Ward. Jon, welcome. You've been covering the action on Capitol Hill since Friday with regard to Ruth Bader Ginsburg. What are you seeing right now?

JON WARD: --writer David French, who put it pretty well on-- over the weekend that there was this shudder that went through the political class kind of in a bipartisan fashion. Because in an already divided and fractious year, people realized that there was going to be this other huge strain placed on our political system. And so I think for Democrats, there was, you know, heartbreak and a bit of panic over the weekend. I think some of that has settled a little bit.

You know, in speaking to some folks on Capitol Hill on the Democratic side today, they were telling me they feel like-- their initial reaction was this could really do damage to Joe Biden's chances by kind of changing the channel, changing the conversation away from a focus on the COVID-19 crisis and on Trump's handling of that. I think as Amanda was saying earlier though-- and Dan-- they're realizing as they look at some of this polling data, which it is still early, but they're realizing that so many people are so activated and energized and engaged in this election that it might not have changed as much as they had thought.

DAN KLAIDMAN: Jon, you've got some reporting that we were talking about earlier in the day that Mitch McConnell has-- may have signaled to Donald Trump which way he thinks the president ought to go. And in addition to that, I understand a sense from the people you've been talking about, from some Democrats, that maybe they ought to be lowering the temperature a little bit in this battle, particularly in as far as they would be going after, say, Amy Coney Barrett if she gets the nod.

JON WARD: Yeah, I was told that Mitch McConnell spoke to the president over the weekend and basically suggested to him that he thinks Amy Coney Barrett is the best choice. He-- you know, the person I spoke to said-- wanted to stress that McConnell was not opposing the other people but simply kind of saying that he thinks Barrett is the best choice.

And there are a few reasons for that. She's been through a nomination battle in 2017 to her spot on the seventh circuit, a federal judgeship. And that was fairly contentious. And so she's been stress tested, in the words of one person I spoke to.

And there's also the element of her religious faith. She's a very devout Catholic, and she has an interesting background. She was-- her-- some of her formative years in the faith were with a group in South Bend, Indiana called People of Praise, which is a very conservative, very devout and uncharacteristic for sort of charismatic Christian circles, pretty highly-educated group of Christians. And that's unusual for sort of a more Pentecostal approach to the faith is-- I just want to stress that.

And so she got some questions from Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2017 that were interpreted by Republicans as attacks on her faith itself. And so that's sort of the way that Republicans see a Barrett nomination could play out. They could use questions-- even questions, much less criticisms-- of Barrett's faith to try to tap into the sense among a lot of conservative Christians that they're being persecuted and attacked for their faith.

And so there's that element, and there's also the element of, you know, retribution for the Republicans blocking Merrick Garland in 2016 and then pushing this nominee through in such short fashion so close to an election, which is you know, a huge flip-flop by Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham and other Republicans. And so there are-- there is a reckon-- I spoke to one Democrat who said, basically, look, if we're going out there and saying that we're going to-- no matter what if they do this that we're going to add Supreme Court justices to the court, pack the court, and abolish the legislative filibuster, what if we lose?

What if we lose the presidential election, and what if we lose-- what if we don't get control of the Senate? What if Mitch McConnell is still majority leader in 2021? We've just given him a green light to go ahead and do those things himself and give a potential second term President Trump two more Supreme Court justices. So there's a sense on the impact electorally, hey, may not be as bad. And on the-- I think that plays into the sense of maybe we don't need to go so hard in our public communications.

ANDY SERWER: Yeah, Jon, a lot of political calculus. And of course, you were mentioning Mitch McConnell. He really is kind of the person in the catbird seat and people hanging on his every word with this particular issue. Here's what he had to say recently about this.

MITCH MCCONNELL: The next justice could fundamentally alter the direction of the Supreme Court and have a profound impact on our country. So of course-- of course-- the American people should have a say in the court's direction.

ANDY SERWER: Amanda, I want to bring you in and get your take on Mitch McConnell's strategy and what your thinking is here.

AMANDA TERKEL: I mean, Mitch McConnell has the power, and he's going to use it. And you can charge him as a hypocrite, but he doesn't really care because this is what he wants to do is nominate-- get conservatives on the Supreme Court and on the-- all the federal courts, the lower courts as well.

So I guess, you know, today, Jon, I wanted to ask you about this. There were some questions about whether Susan Collins would actually vote against Trump's nominee if it came before the election. Because she said she didn't want to, but it wasn't clear she said-- she would actually say no. But today, she clarified. She said, look, I will oppose this person.

I mean, Jon, what's your sense? Does that-- her saying that, does that seem clear that McConnell has the votes lined up, she has the room to come out and say that? I mean, are there any other Republicans who seem like Democrats can maybe pick off, you know, aside from Lisa Murkowski, who put out a similar statement?

JON WARD: Yeah, I think your point about Collins getting room to be as independent as possible and that's signaling that McConnell has the votes is probably a good one. I mean, I think-- I was actually a little surprised-- I know you weren't-- about Mitt Romney's announcement this morning. But you know, I think outside of the two-- Murkowski and Collins and then Romney, I'm not-- I have been skeptical that there would be any possibility of a fourth Republican senator in the first place. The only person I can really think of that might even have a chance of opposing a vote before the election would be Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

I just don't think Cory Gardner and Martha McSally-- I just don't see the calculus there for them, if we're just going to be-- you know, see it through the eyes of a cynical political consultant or politician because I think both of them are likely to lose and both of them want to run for office in the future. And if they want to retain support from, you know, Republican voters in these states, I think this is a litmus-test vote to support a vote before the election that actually kind of transcends Trump in some ways, which I think is what you were saying, Amanda, about why Romney, you know, came out the way he did.

DAN KLAIDMAN: So Jon, the-- no question that McConnell has the votes. He controls the process. He controls the timing. The Democrats don't have any procedural tricks up their sleeves here. The only remaining question I have is will they be able to get this done before the election? Is that a fait accompli now, or is there any chance that it'll slip until past the election, which could change the complexion somewhat, make it harder, even though he still-- he'll still likely get a nominee through.

JON WARD: Well, I mean, McConnell today said he thinks they can get it done before the election. I saw one Twitter, you know, thread that kind of laid out the calendar logistics of it. I think the only thing that contention potentially throw a wrench in this is if something comes out about the person that the president names, whether it's Coney Barrett or someone else-- something comes out of the woodwork that is-- throws a wrench into this. That could be something that delays this, obviously. And then if they have confirmation hearings, you know, before the election to get to a vote, which would be an obvious part of the process, you know, if those hearings don't go well, if something happens that dramatically changes things there. That could delay the vote.

And I did want to say, if you do get to a vote after the election in a lame-duck Congress, you know, there's several different scenarios. But if President Trump were to lose to Joe Biden, I think the interesting thing to watch then is which Republican senators are up for re-election two years from now. You have Marco Rubio in Florida. You have Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. You have Rob Portman in Ohio, and you have a couple others. And so you know, you would want to watch whether Trump won or lost those states for these Republican senators who are up for re-election in two more years because I think that might play into their calculus for how they might vote in a lame duck.

ANDY SERWER: All righty, Jon Ward, Yahoo News senior political correspondent, thanks so much for joining us.

JON WARD: No problem.