What does a snowy fall mean for winter?
Snowy November
According to data collected by our meteorologist, November could be a good indicator of the amount of snow that is likely to fall during the following winter. Réjean Ouimet, however, drew a line between two time periods, since the climate is changing. The correlation becomes lower if we consider the most recent period after 1980 with warming temperatures.
"Two phenomena come into play," explains Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist, "temperature and precipitation. Using data from Montreal between 1941 and 1979, we found 22 snowier autumns. Of this number, we then saw 17 winters which saw more snow than usual. And this during the three months of meteorological winter: December, January and February. For the most recent time period from 1980-2023, we found 13 snowier autumns, however, only four of those winters went on to have above average snowfall."
Recent episodes
Southern Quebec is certainly less spoiled by snow considering the warming trend. However, in recent years, we have seen record Novembers in certain regions of the province. For Montreal, we have to go back to 1983. The winter that followed, however, was not more generous than normal.
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"One might think that this is a strong trend towards less snow in Novembers," explains Réjean Ouimet. "However, in 2018, 2019 and 2020, three snowy Novembers were followed by snowy winters. Let's not throw in the towel too soon, November doesn't seem to have said its last word. Taking the snowiest Novembers on record, the winters that follow have their share of snow and sometimes beyond. This was the case in the winter of 1965-1966 in Quebec and in 2002-2003 in Gaspé."
Fall snow storms
Fall snow storms are those where 15 cm or more fall in one event. Considering the province as a whole, Quebec receives on average 28 of these snowfalls during the entire winter. In November alone, there are about four. This time, the correlation is convincing. The month becomes a harbinger of heavy snow in winter.
“Recent autumns have given us some action in November,” says Réjean Ouimet. "This was the case, among others, in 2014 and 2019 with almost twice as many fall snow storms in November across Quebec as we normally see. In 2022 too, it was a busy month. From these three cases, we note that the following winter gave rise to more snow storms in Quebec than we normally see."
With the collaboration of Réjean Ouimet and Kevin Cloutier, meteorologists, and Francis Brière, writer at Météo Média.
Thumbnail image from Andre Monette/Météo Média.
