Donald Trump is in California courting GOP voters. Can he help state Republicans rebound?

California Republicans have spent the past 20 years becoming a superminority in a deep blue state.

But the red opposition will gain a sudden surge of relevance this weekend as former President Donald Trump and his fellow 2024 presidential candidates come to Anaheim to make their case at the state GOP convention.

No Republican has won a statewide office in California since 2006. Trump lost the state by more than 30 points in 2016 and 2020. But he remains royalty to the GOP.

He will speak on Friday in the convention’s prime lunchtime slot. And he will address a party that recently changed its rules so that he can capture California’s entire trove of 169 national convention delegates if he wins 50% of the vote in the March 5 primary — an important chunk of the 1,234 needed for nomination.

The August Berkeley-IGS poll had him the choice of 55% of California Republicans. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was next at 16%.

But simmering under the cheer for the former president is a recognition that a Trump-focused GOP will never be competitive in California.

“A lot of party professionals understand that Trump and Trumpists cannot win statewide elections, but the party base is different,” said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican National Committee staffer.

A center-right California GOP?

Lanhee Chen is not a Trump supporter. He ran as a Republican for state controller last year, drawing national attention to a usually-obscure race because it seemed a GOP candidate might actually have a shot at a California-wide office.

But Chen’s Democratic opponent, Malia Cohen, won the election handily with 55% of the vote.

Afterwards, he reflected on the image of the party.

“People don’t have a nuanced view of the Republican Party in California,” he told The Bee. “They see all Republicans as MAGA Trump acolytes.”

Chen and others see opportunities around the state to elect the sort of moderate Republicans who once dominated state GOP politics.

“Center-right candidates do well every cycle all over California,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican consultant. “That is who gets elected to school boards, city councils and boards of supervisors. They are doing good work that is not defined by political parties.”

Mike Madrid, a Republican Latino voting trends expert, has said GOP anti-immigrant policies of the 1990s drove the party into obscurity as California’s Latino population grew and built political influence.

Today, he said, Republicans have “really no gameplay and have no real strategy to make the adjustments they need to get to relevancy.”

“The reason for that is because all of the messaging is focusing on the shrinking segment of the California population, which is white, non-college-educated males,” Madrid said.

Madrid said the state’s “cultural and racial transformation” was clear decades ago, but party members have “gotten more strident in their right-wing ideology.”

“They simply don’t care,” he said. “They’re choosing to go extinct by by not compromising, by not evolving. And that didn’t work out well with the dinosaurs, and it’s not working out for the Republicans.”

Republicans hope for a rebound

Despite the pessimism over its statewide prospects, GOP lawmakers and local political organizers believe the party could rebound by addressing voter concerns with high living costs, homelessness and criminal justice accountability.

Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher of Yuba City cited recent recall efforts targeting Democratic district attorneys in San Francisco and Los Angeles and anti-crime rallies in Oakland. Californians’ frustrations could change the state’s blue pendulum swing, he said.

“I think we’re in a phase where it’s going to start to swing back,” Gallagher said. “Because the policies of the majority party have really damaged the state. I mean, they’ve made it unaffordable, they’ve made it less safe. And I think a lot of people are waking up to that, and they’re looking for something different.”

Gallagher said California Republicans appreciate Trump because they see him as a “strong fighter.”

“He fights back against sort of a very progressive agenda and isn’t afraid to stand up against it,” he said.

Betsy Mahan, Sacramento County Republican Party chair, said she thinks more working class people are becoming involved in GOP politics because they find the state unaffordable and want to see better opportunities for their children.

“They’re very, very concerned about the future in California,” she said.

Both Gallagher and Mahan remain undecided about which candidate they’ll back for president.

Gallagher wants to hear what candidates say about the economy and inflation, as well as the United States’ status as a strong global leader.

Mahan said she wants to hear Trump and other candidates talk about “the issues of today.”

“I don’t want to hear about 2020,” she said. “I don’t want to hear about anything other than, ‘Here’s the situation we have today. Here’s what I can do about it if I were president.’ That’s what I want to know. I want solutions, because we have some very, very serious issues in our country that are really dragging people down.”

Trump’s California outlook

Trump comes to Anaheim the clear frontrunner despite his legal troubles, which include four criminal indictments. Since the May Berkeley-ISG poll, he’s widened his lead over DeSantis by 21 points.

Jon Fleischman, former California Republican Party executive director and a DeSantis supporter, said today’s polls don’t really predict how the March 5 California primary could unfold.

History shows that candidates who win in early primary and caucus states gain momentum and a fresh look when other states’ voters go to the polls.

“The California primary is largely impacted by what happens in the early states,” Fleischman said.

But the state party’s new rules will make it harder for an underdog to break through. If Trump maintains his big lead, it could discourage other candidates from even trying.

They would have to hope that if no one gets a majority, the default system takes effect and delegates would be awarded according to candidates’ vote percentages.

“If there is a frontrunner and a person looks way ahead and it costs a lot of money to compete, it may not be competitive,” said John Fortier, senior fellow at the center-right American Enterprise Institute..

Trump supporters point out that despite his loss in the 2016 and 2020 presidential race, he did better than previous Republican contenders.

His 6.06 million votes were a sharp increase over the 4.49 million he received in 2016. He won 34.1% of the state vote in 2020, up from 31.6% four years earlier. But in both years, he lost to his Democratic rival by nearly 30 points.

California has had three Republican governors — George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger — in the last 40 years. But since Schwarzenegger was re-elected in 2006, no Republican has won a statewide office.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win more than 40% of the state vote was George W. Bush in 2004, with 44%.

It’s clear, said Pitney, “The party of Deukmejian, Wilson, and Schwarzenegger is long gone.”

The Bee Capitol Bureau’s Mathew Miranda contributed to this story.