Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: May 25, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Weekly Commentary: The “Star Wars” spin-off series from Disney+ — “Andor” and “The Mandalorian” — will have a barrage of actors to submit for guest acting consideration.

“Andor” will have the best shot with veteran actor Andy Serkis, whose sole Emmy nom was in 2009 for supporting actor (limited) for “Little Dorrit.” As Kino Loy, a prisoner at the Narkina 5 Imperial facility, he was a standout from the critically acclaimed show.

With “Mandalorian,” Jack Black and Christopher Lloyd will be the big names on the contenders’ list but the great Giancarlo Esposito, who’s been nominated twice for playing Moff Gideon in supporting drama actor and guest, seems to be an actor in the TV Academy will have no problem returning to check off. It also helps he’s in the conversation for the final season of AMC’s “Better Call Saul.” Coincidentally, the AMC drama also has a half dozen names in contention — notably Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.

The genre shows will be trying relentlessly to get around the one-two punch of Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman from HBO’s “The Last of Us,” which includes other worthy performances from Lamar Johnson and Gabriel Luna. Its cable/streamer counterpart “Succession” is sure to have a bite at the apple for James Cromwell and Arian Moayed, both of which have been invited to the party before.

Despite Netflix’s “Stranger Things” being ineligible for best drama series, actor Dacre Montgomery as the deceased stepbrother Billy is submitted for guest actor in a drama series, which could be one of the major pieces of recognition the horror series can receive, which includes writing and directing.

You can read the first predictions for the guest actress (drama) category to see which race looks more competitive.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

1. Nick Offerman — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

2. Murray Bartlett — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

3. James Cromwell — “Succession” (HBO)

4. Andy Serkis — “Andor” (Disney+)

5. Giancarlo Esposito — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

6. Arian Moayed — “Succession” (HBO)

Next in Line

1. Lamar Johnson — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

2. Dacre Montgomery — “Stranger Things” (Netflix)

3. Jack Black — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

4. Joel Grey — “The Old Man” (FX)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

1. Bryan Cranston — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

2. Aaron Paul — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

3. Justin Kirk — “Succession” (HBO)

4. Gabriel Luna — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

5. Christopher Lloyd — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

6. Michael McKean — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

7. Bradley Whitford — “Law & Order: SVU” (NBC)

8. Greg Kinnear — “You” (Netflix)

9. Paul Sun-Hyung Lee — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

10. Jon Gries — “The White Lotus” (HBO)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

• Bryan Cranston — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

• Tony Dalton — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

• Mark Margolis — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

• Michael McKean — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

• Aaron Paul — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

• Jonathan Pryce — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)

• Andy Serkis — “Andor” (Disney+)

• Forest Whitaker — “Andor” (Disney+)

• Alex Lawther — “Andor” (Disney+)

• Omid Abtahi — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Ahmed Best — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Jack Black — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Giancarlo Esposito — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Christopher Lloyd — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Paul Sun-Hyung Lee — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

• Joel Grey — “The Old Man” (FX)

• Tom Glynn-Carney — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)

• Ty Tennant — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)

• Nick Offerman — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

• Murray Bartlett — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

• Lamar Johnson — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

• Gabriel Luna — “The Last of Us” (HBO)

• James Cromwell — “Succession” (HBO)

• Justin Kirk — “Succession” (HBO)

• Arian Moayed — “Succession” (HBO)

• Jon Gries — “The White Lotus” (HBO)

• Bradley Whitford — “Law & Order: SVU” (NBC)

• Alex Jennings — “The Crown” (Netflix)

• Timothy Dalton — “The Crown” (Netflix)

• Prasanna Puwanarajah — “The Crown” (Netflix)

• Khalid Abdalla — “The Crown” (Netflix)

• Michael McKean — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

• David Thewlis — “The Sandman” (Netflix)

• John Cameron Mitchell — “The Sandman” (Netflix)

• Dacre Montgomery — “Stranger Things” (Netflix)

• Greg Kinnear — “You” (Netflix)

• Peter Stormare — “1923” (Paramount+)

• James Badge Dale — “1923” (Paramount+)

• Bill Bellamy — “Bel-Air” (Peacock)

• Paul Reiser — “The Boys” (Prime Video)

• Peter Mullan — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)

• Benjamin Walker — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)

** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Colman Domingo as Ali Muhammed in “Euphoria” (HBO)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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