When To Expect Key Results From The 2024 Local Elections
The next 48-hours are set to be crucial for Rishi Sunak, perhaps even determining if he will remain as Tory leader and prime minister.
Polls opened at 7am on Thursday in England and Wales’ local elections, the last big test for Sunak and Keir Starmer before the general election.
A bad night for the Tories – who are currently on just just 18% of the national vote according to one poll – could see disgruntled Conservative MPs try and oust Sunak.
There are more than 2,660 council seats up for grabs, 11 mayoralties, police and crime commissioners and a Westminster by-election.
The Conservatives are expected to lose around 500 seats. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has already he said he expects “significant losses” for the government as the party tries to manage expectations.
Here is a quick guide of some things to watch out for between Thursday evening and Sunday morning.
Thursday
Polls close at 10pm. But unlike at general elections there is not an immediate exit poll. This means politicians and pundits will have to watch the actual results coming in before drawing conclusions and adapting their spin.
Friday
One of the first council results should be Hartlepool at 1am. Labour needs to pick up two seats to take control. Winning here would be a cathartic moment for Starmer. Labour lost the parliamentary by-election here in 2021, the fallout was so damaging that Starmer almost quit as party leader.
At around 4am, the winner of the Blackpool South by-election should be revealed. The Conservatives grabbed the seat in 2019, winning a majority of just 3,690 and Labour confident of taking it back. The contest was called when incumbent Scott Benton resigned after being caught in a lobbying sting. A nightmare scenario for Sunak is not just losing, but being pushed into third place by Reform UK.
Between 5am and midday on Friday morning there should be lull in declarations. Time that will be filled with party spokespeople trying to spin the results so far in their favour on TV, radio and online.
At around 12pm one of the big results is due, the Tees Valley mayoralty. Tory Ben Houchen is hoping to cling on against his Labour challenger. Holding this is seen in Westminster as key to seeing off a challenge to the prime minister’s leadership from within his party.
Lunchtime should also see Labour find out if it has won the mayor’s contest in the North East. Labour’s Kim McGuinness is in a neck-and-neck race against Jamie Driscoll, an independent. Driscoll, currently the mayor of North of Tyne, is running against McGuinness from the left. He had wanted to be Labour’s candidate but was blocked from standing so decided to run anyway on his own. Losing here would be a big embarrassment for Starmer.
From about 2pm the East Midlands mayoralty should be revealed. Labour expected to beat Tory candidate and MP Ben Bradley.
Friday afternoon will see results from Rochdale council. This is where George Galloway won the recent parliamentary by-election when Labour’s campaign imploded amid allegations of anti-Semitism against its candidate.
In the south of England, Labour is defending its control of Crawley council in West Sussex. The Westminster constituency is a swing seat and historically goes the same way as the country at general elections. A good showing here will be used by Labour to argue it is gaining ground in the Home Counties.
At 3pm we will see if a recent poll which suggested Labour will win the mayor’s race in North Yorkshire, the combined authority which covers Sunak’s Richmond constituency, was right.
Last year Labour took control of the council in Swindon - which had been held by the Tories since 2004. It was hailed by the party as a sign it was on track for victory at the general election. Starmer will be hoping to make gains here again, with results due at 4pm.
Labour will however by watching nervously for the council results in Bristol at around 6pm. The Greens are targeting the city in at the general election and will be looking to make gains here at the local level.
Saturday
After a bit of a rest in the morning, two big results are due in the early afternoon.
First off, London will discover if – as expected – Sadiq Khan has won a third term as mayor against Tory Susan Hall.
But all eyes will be on the mayor’s race in the West Midlands. Tory incumbent Andy Street is in a tight race against Labour. The result, alongside the contest Tees Valley, will set the overall tone of the elections. A Conservative defeat here would be very bad news for Sunak. Losing both the West Midlands and Tees Valley would be a disaster.
Sunday
There will be some final council results declared on Sunday. But by now the overall shape of the elections will be clear.
