Facing 2-1 hole in NBA Finals, Heat knows ‘we have a small margin of error’ vs. Nuggets

Through the first three games of the NBA Finals, one thing has become clear: The Miami Heat’s margin of error against the Denver Nuggets is minuscule.

Heat players know it, too.

“We can be way more intentional following our game plan,” Heat starting guard Gabe Vincent said after Wednesday night’s 109-94 loss to the Nuggets in Game 3 of the Finals at Kaseya Center. “I think we got away from that a little bit. We have a small margin of error, so we got to be more detailed with our stuff.”

With the Heat now down 2-1 in the best-of-7 championship series and the Nuggets regaining home-court advantage, the pressure is on the Heat to play a near-perfect Game 4 on Friday in Miami (8:30 p.m., ABC) to avoid a 3-1 hole that only one team in NBA history (2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers) has ever recovered from in the Finals.

Because Wednesday’s Game 3 performance from the Heat was far from perfect.

▪ The Heat shot 37 percent from the field and 11 of 35 (31.4 percent) from three-point range.

▪ The Heat was outscored 60-34 in the paint. Miami, which entered shooting 64.4 percent at the rim in the playoffs, shot just 8 of 22 (36.4 percent) from within the restricted area while allowing the second-most paint points it has given up in a game during this year’s playoffs.

▪ The Heat allowed the Nuggets to total 14 second-chance points on 13 offensive rebounds.

▪ The supporting cast surrounding the Heat’s leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler combined for just 44 points on 16-of-47 (34 percent) shooting from the field and 10-of-31 (32.3 percent) shooting on threes.

The result was a 15-point loss to the Nuggets.

“We didn’t play our best tonight,” Butler said. “I feel like we just got to come out with more energy and effort, and that’s correctable. That’s on us as a group. No Xs and Os can fix that. So come out, dive on the floor, get loose balls, get defensive rebounds and maybe, just maybe, it would have been a different game.”

The Nuggets’ incredible pick-and-roll duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray keep on shrinking the Heat’s margin of error with their greatness.

While Adebayo and Butler combined to record 50 points on 45 shots, 19 rebounds and seven assists for the Heat in Game 3, Jokic and Murray totaled 66 points on 43 shots, 31 rebounds and 20 assists for the Nuggets.

Jokic finished Game 3 with 32 points on 12-of-21 shooting from the field, 21 rebounds and 10 assists for his 10th triple-double of this year’s playoffs, while Murray closed with 34 points on 12-of-22 shooting from the field and 3-of-6 shooting from three-point range, 10 rebounds and 10 assists for his first triple-double of this year’s playoffs. Jokic and Murray became only the second pair of teammates in NBA history to each record a triple-double in a playoff game and the first to do it in a Finals game.

“We’re going to get back to the film and figure it out, because we do have to be better guarding both of those guys,” Butler said of defending the Jokic-Murray pick-and-roll. “One is the ball-hander and one is the guy that is setting the screen and popping and rolling. It’s not an easy task to do, but if we want to win, we are going to have to figure it out.”

Even with the Heat’s two best defenders in Adebayo and Butler as the primary defenders on them, Jokic and Murray have been the two best offensive players in the series and that’s a problem for Miami.

Jokic has averaged 33.3 points on 59 percent shooting from the field and 44.4 percent shooting from three-point range, 14 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game in the Finals.

Murray has averaged 26 points on 50.8 percent shooting from the field and 38.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc, 6.7 rebounds and 10 assists per game in the Finals.

“It’s a great duo. Their games really complement each other,” Spoelstra said of Jokic and Murray. “You have one guy that really can score in a lot of different ways. Another guy who is setting great screens or handoffs, and if the ball gets back to him, he can get a bunch of people involved.”

Spoelstra also blamed the Heat’s Game 3 loss on losing “a lot of physical 50-50 or ball-in-the-air, ball-on-the-floor battles throughout the course of the game, at key moments.”

The Nuggets came away with eight loose balls to the Heat’s four loose balls, according to NBA tracking data.

The Heat also was outrebounded 58-33, marking the first time a team was outrebounded by at least 25 rebounds in an NBA Finals game since 1972. But that big margin has a lot to do with the fact that Miami shot just 37 percent from the field, missing 19 more field goals than Denver to create more defensive rebounding opportunities for the Nuggets.

“I just think sometimes, for us, when we lose a lot of those physical battles, the effort plays, the loose balls, the rebounding battles, that’s our identity, and sometimes that can affect the flow of the rest of your game,” Spoelstra said after Game 3. “That’s not an excuse. I think the thing that we’ve proven over and over and over is we can win and find different ways to win regardless of whether we have confidence, regardless whether the ball is going in.”

The problem is the Nuggets appear to be the team with the larger margin of error in the Finals.

Denver won by double-digits on Wednesday despite being outscored 33-15 from three-point range and shooting just 5 of 18 (27.8 percent) from deep. Teams are 13-51 this season when making five or fewer threes in a game.

Miami also committed just four turnovers on Wednesday for the second-fewest turnovers ever in a Finals game and still lost by double digits. With the Nuggets committing 14 turnovers, they became the third team in NBA history to win a Finals game when committing 10 or more turnovers than the opponent.

In the only game the Heat has won in the series so far, it shot an ultra-efficient 17 of 35 (48.6 percent) from three-point range and won by three points in Game 2.

“I do think we’ll respond,” Heat veteran forward Kevin Love said, looking ahead to Game 4. “That’s the team that we are. We have always responded well to adversity, at least since I’ve been here. And I believe this team in the past has always done that. I have it in my mind that we will bounce back Friday night.”

To do it, the Heat will need to be much closer to perfect than it was in Game 3. The Nuggets’ excellence demands nothing less.

“Our guys are built to compete, built to get out there,” Spoelstra said. “Our guys, they want to get out there and compete and have a better showing, for sure.”