First Scouting Report: Evaluating UK football’s 2023 bowl scenarios
An early look at Kentucky’s bowl prospects:
The projections
Going into UK’s season finale with Louisville, bowl projections had the Wildcats in reasonably favorable bowl position even though Mark Stoops’ team had gone 1-5 after a 5-0 start to the season.
Kentucky’s 38-31 upset of No. 10 U of L pushed the Wildcats to seven wins (7-5) and removed any concern about whether South Carolina could gain bowl eligibility by upsetting Clemson and reaching six wins. Had the Gamecocks and Wildcats each finished 6-6, South Carolina would have had the advantage in the SEC bowl pecking order because of its head-to-head victory over the Cats.
UK stands to benefit if the SEC can get at least three teams — Georgia, Alabama and either Mississippi and/or Missouri — selected among those in either the College Football Playoff or the other four “Selection Committee” bowl games.
Taking those variables into account, let’s peruse the bowl projections for Kentucky:
1. ESPN.com analysts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura agree on the most likely bowl destination for UK but do not project the same foe for the Wildcats. (You will have to be an ESPN Plus member to read their projections.)
Schlabach had the Wildcats in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (in Charlotte on Dec. 27 at 5:30 p.m.) against Virginia Tech.
Bonagura had the Cats in the same game but against Georgia Tech.
Comment: Both of those matchups would be rematches of relatively recent Kentucky bowl trips.
UK lost to Georgia Tech 33-18 in the 2016 Gator Bowl.
Behind the individual brilliance of Lynn Bowden, the Cats beat Virginia Tech 37-31 in Charlotte in 2019 when that city’s postseason game was known as the Belk Bowl.
2. Yahoo Sports’ Nick Bromberg also projected Kentucky to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. He, however, had Mark Stoops’ troops facing Duke.
Comment: If the Wildcats-Blue Devils pairing happens, you will become rich if you can get $5 for every time a national sports analyst comments on what a great basketball matchup Kentucky-Duke would have been.
3. USA Today’s Erick Smith projected Kentucky to the Music City Bowl (Nashville, Dec. 30, 2 p.m. EST, ABC) to face Maryland.
Comment: Since UK played in the Music City Bowl last season, a 21-0 loss to Iowa, I think the chances are all but nil of the Cats being sent back to Nashville this year.
4. Bryan Fischer of Fox Sports projects Kentucky to the Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. EST, ESPN) against Big 12 newcomer Central Florida.
Comment: That matchup would create a reunion between UK and ex-Kentucky wideout Chauncey Magwood, now playing for UCF (with four catches for 40 yards through 11 games).
5. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also has Kentucky in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Duke.
What impact will Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC have on UK? It’s complicated.
Kentucky’s past with Oklahoma and Texas has included both triumph and heartache
How Oklahoma and Texas rank vs. the current SEC schools in sports and academics
In spending on sports, how Oklahoma and Texas match up with the current SEC members
