Fresno State picked third in Mountain West. Here’s road to title game for Bulldogs

Fresno State was picked to finish third in the Mountain West behind defending champion Boise State and UNLV on Wednesday at the start of the conference’s media days in Las Vegas.

The Broncos, the favorite in the conference or their division for 14 years in a row, received 38 of the 46 first-place votes from media that covers the conference. Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming round out the top half of the conference, and were followed by Utah State, San Diego State, Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico and Nevada.

The Rebels and Bulldogs ea,ch received four first-place votes.

The teams with the best conference records will meet in the Mountain West championship game Friday, Dec. 6, to be played on the home field of the team with the best winning percentage in conference play.

Boise State, led by running back Austin Jeanty, appears to have been set up with an easy road back to the championship game. In its seven conference games, Boise State will play five teams that have new coaches and four that finished last season with losing records.

The Broncos do not play Air Force or the Bulldogs in the regular season. They also miss Colorado State.

Boise State is 46-7 all-time in regular-season Mountain West games against the seven teams on its conference schedule: Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming.

Only one of those teams has more than one victory against the Broncos since they joined the conference in 2011. That would be San Diego State, which is 4-5 in its series with Boise State, and is one of the schools in the Mountain West that has a first-year coach and is coming off a losing season.

Boise State does play at UNLV, which found a pulse last season under coach Barry Odom, going 9-5 after posting nine losing seasons in a row and 18 out of 19. But the Broncos have never lost a conference regular-season game to the Rebels, going 5-0. They also have never lost a Mountain West game against Hawaii or a regular-season conference game against San Jose State — Boise State did lose to the Spartans in the 2020 championship game in a season impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those records come with the success Boise State has had in the conference. It has appeared in the Mountain West title game seven times since it was started in 2013.

But who else among the top five in the poll has a schedule to play for the title?

Fresno State QB makes preseason all-conference team. Does that give Bulldogs an edge?

UNLV

The Rebels are trending the right way, but there are questions. Maiava, the first UNLV quarterback to throw for more than 3,000 yards since 1996, transferred to USC. That 9-5 record, two more wins than UNLV had the three previous seasons combined, included a 2-5 mark against opponents that ended their seasons in a bowl game.

UNLV also beat a FCS opponent and three other wins came by three, two and four points. As potent as that offense was in putting up 34.4 points per game, the Rebels were outgained on the season, which is not the best sign. Of the 33 Mountain West teams that won nine or more games in a season in the championship game era, UNLV and Wyoming last season were the only ones not to outgain opponents.

UNLV will play four of its seven conference games at home including matchups against Boise State and Fresno State, though the Rebels will play the Broncos on a short week following back-to-back road games at Utah State and at Oregon State.

The Rebels get their two toughest conference opponents at home and they also play at Utah State, at Hawaii, San Diego State, at San Jose State and Nevada, and four of those five had losing records last season. With UNLV and its newfound success, history isn’t much of a guide. It will honor its 1994 team when it plays Fresno State in September, which went 7-5. Seven wins might not sound like a lot, but it included a victory over Central Michigan in the Las Vegas Bowl and the Rebels have won more than seven games in a season just twice since then.

FRESNO STATE

The Bulldogs do not play three road games in four weeks, as they have in some past seasons. They play one game outside of California after Oct. 18 and three of their final four conference games will be played at home, which will help if the Bulldogs can continue their run of games with 35,000 or more at Valley Children’s Stadium — that streak stands at 14 games in a row entering the season.

But there are some potential tough spots. Fresno State is 39-23 in Mountain West regular-season games against the seven conference opponents it will play this season.

The key games are on the road: Sept. 28 at UNLV and Nov. 9 at Air Force.

The Rebels have a bye week before taking on Fresno State at Allegiant Stadium, and Air Force is 13-2 since 2013 in conference home games that were played in November and the Falcons’ average margin of victory is 13.5 points.

Colorado State on Senior Day could be a tricky game, but that 39-23 record could also be very deceiving given some down years for a program that has played in the conference championship game five times.

Fresno State since joining the Mountain West is 1-3 against Air Force and Colorado State, and all six of those losses came in 2015, 2016 and 2019 when the Bulldogs went 3-9, 1-11 and 4-8.

Of those 23 losses, 14 came in those three seasons.

AIR FORCE

The Falcons have a ton of production to replace on both sides of the football. They have just six returning starters, two on offense and four on defense.

But the schedule is not at all daunting. Air Force does not play Boise State or UNLV during the regular season and plays Fresno State not only at home, but in November when weather could be a factor. The Falcons also get Colorado State at home and their road games are at Wyoming, at New Mexico, at Nevada and at San Diego State. Those four teams were a combined 19-30 last season, and the Lobos (4), Aztecs (4) and Wolf Pack (2) had the fewest wins in the conference.

COLORADO STATE

Coach Jay Norvell heads into his third season with the Rams, so it’s time for a solid forward step after 3-9 and 5-7 seasons. The schedule works in their favor, with seven games at home including four in conference play and the in-state rivalry against Colorado and no back-to-back road games anywhere. The Rams also miss Boise State and UNLV, but do have to play on the road at Air Force and at Fresno State.

Colorado State has not beaten Air Force since 2015 and has not beaten the Falcons on the road since 2002.

Along with Air Force and Fresno State, the Rams will play San Jose State, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Utah State and those five teams all have at least two things in common: All have new coaches and all could have new quarterbacks this season. If Norvell is to push the program forward, this is the year to do it.

MOUNTAIN WEST PRESEASON POLL

1, Boise State (38 first place votes)

2, UNLV (4)

3, Fresno State (4)

4, Air Force

5, Colorado State

6, Wyoming

7, Utah State

8, San Diego State

9, Hawaii

10, San Jose State

11, New Mexico

12, Nevada