Has late-game defensive strategy cost Kentucky football wins? Here’s a closer look.

Random football notes:

▪ After UK’s 38-35 loss to Clemson in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, the Kentucky football fandom was quick to point the finger at Brad White, claiming UK’s defensive coordinator’s fourth-quarter strategy has cost the Wildcats victories.

Is that true? A deep dive into the record book shows that since head coach Mark Stoops promoted White from outside linebackers coach to defensive play-caller in 2019, Kentucky is 35-5 in games when the Cats were leading after three quarters. The bad news is that three of those five losses came this season.

Back in 2019, the Cats led Florida 21-10 after three quarters at Kroger Field only to see the Gators rally around backup quarterback Kyle Trask to score 19 points in the final frame to win 29-21. Florida took the lead with 4:11 remaining, then tacked on a 76-yard touchdown run with 33 seconds to go.

In the second game of the 2020 COVID season, Kentucky led Ole Miss 28-21 after three quarters in Lexington only to lose to Lane Kiffin and Company 42-41 in overtime. UK actually scored with 2:04 left in regulation to send the game to overtime.

The Cats had won 27 straight games when leading after three quarters until the 38-21 loss to Missouri on Oct. 14 this season. Kentucky had taken a 21-20 lead late in the third quarter before the visiting Tigers scored 18 points in the final 14:14 to win going away.

Then Nov. 18 at Columbia, Kentucky led South Carolina 14-10 heading into the final quarter before losing 17-14 to the Gamecocks. South Carolina scored the go-ahead touchdown with 7:44 remaining. After that, Kentucky failed to score on three straight possessions and fell to 6-5 on the season and 3-5 in the SEC.

In Jacksonville, Kentucky led Clemson 21-10 heading into the final quarter, only to give up 28 points in the fourth quarter. Clemson actually scored on the first play of the final frame to cut UK’s lead to 21-16. From there, both teams traded scores with UK taking a 35-30 lead with 2:39 remaining.

Alas, Kentucky couldn’t hold it. The killer play was Clemson’s 16-yard gain on a third-and-18 from midfield. That set up a manageable fourth-and-2 conversion. Three plays later, the Tigers scored with 17 seconds remaining to take home the Gator Bowl trophy.

▪ Kentucky had used a similar bend-but-don’t-break strategy in the 38-31 upset of Louisville back on Nov. 25. After Kentucky scored to take the lead with 1:02 remaining, the Cards took over at their own 28 with 56 seconds remaining. Jeff Brohm’s team moved the ball to the UK 31-yard line, but Kentucky safety Jordan Lovett intercepted Jack Plummer’s pass in the end zone to seal the UK victory.

So against Louisville, the late-game defensive strategy worked. Against Clemson, the same strategy did not.

▪ One other note: The Gator Bowl loss was the second in the final minute over the last two years. Kentucky led Vanderbilt 21-17 in the fourth quarter last season before the Commodores scored with 32 seconds remaining to earn the win at Kroger Field.

▪ Over the last five seasons, Kentucky’s record when trailing going into the fourth quarter is 2-21. The two wins? The Cats rallied from a 27-24 deficit to beat Virginia Tech 37-30 in the 2019 Belk Bowl. The Cats rallied from a 24-21 deficit to earn that win over Louisville this season.

▪ Let’s just say that the Rose Bowl was a tough night for former Kentucky offensive line coach Eric Wolford, who coaches Alabama’s offensive line. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was sacked six times and Michigan easily blew up Bama’s fourth-down play in overtime to give the Wolverines the 27-20 victory and a spot in the national championship game against Washington.

▪ By the way, I’ll be rooting for Washington in the final game. There would be something ironic and oddly satisfying about a Pac-12 team winning the national title in the final year of the league.

▪ After watching Monday’s College Football Playoff semifinals, I have come to the conclusion we are dangerously close to the networks airing a commercial between every play.

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