As Heat nears trade deadline, new rules, other factors, in play if Heat waits to do more

The Heat already made its big pre-trade deadline move, by acquiring guard Terry Rozier from Charlotte for a future first-round pick.

So if Thursday’s 3 p.m. trade deadline delivers another deal for the Heat, it could be something minor, along the lines of dumping injured guard Dru Smith’s contract to create more flexibility under the second apron to sign a cheap, healthy player.

Caleb Martin, who could opt for free agency this summer, was reinserted into the starting lineup in Tuesday’s win against Orlando and has received no indication that he could be moved.

The question in the months ahead is whether the next significant trade -- certainly far more likely to happen in the summer than in the next two days -- would be far more seismic.

Few NBA front offices have been more patient with their core, in recent years, than the Heat.

Miami’s top three scorers - Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro - have remained in place for nearly five seasons, a byproduct of the front office rejecting all inquiries about Adebayo and making Herro available only for a few perennial All Stars. Butler has never been made available.

If the Heat’s self-described ‘Big Three’ is broken up at some point, it seems unlikely to happen before Thursday’s trade deadline, barring something unforeseen.

After going all-in to win this season - and trading a treasured first-round pick to acquire Rozier - the Heat is not going to reverse course and start selling assets before the season plays out.

But change, later in 2024, is likely if this group ends the year looking more like the team that recently lost seven in a row but entered Wednesday having won three of its last four.

Heat president Pat Riley, who spoke to three reporters (including The Miami Herald) in October, noted at the time: “We’re in the fifth year. Jimmy is anxious; we’re anxious. But you get to a point where, does it run its course? Not Jimmy, but does the team run its course?...

“When it comes to the championship window, we’re at the abyss. I don’t mean that in any kind of ill-manner other than what it is. When you come to the abyss, you got to get to the other side.”

The Heat, this century, has only twice traded one of its top players during the season, and one of those happened because the player (Shaquille O’Neal) asked to be dealt.

In his first 28 seasons as Heat president, Riley shipped out one of the team’s top players in a pre-trade deadline deal only three times -- in 1996 (when Billy Owens and Kevin Willis were jettisoned in a trade that brought Tim Hardaway and Walt Williams and Chris Gatling to Miami), in 2008 (when O’Neal made it clear he preferred to be traded and was sent to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks) and in 2009 (when Marion and Banks were dealt to Toronto for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon).

Riley traded rotation players in a few other February deals, most notably Ike Austin (Miami’s fourth-leading scorer at the time) and a first-round pick in a regrettable 1998 deal for Brent Barry; and a 1997 deal sending rotation players Sasha Danilovic and Kurt Thomas (plus prospect Martin Muursepp) to Dallas for Jamal Mashburn.

So Miami hasn’t traded one of its top players during the season in nearly 15 years. (Justice Winslow, Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kyle Lowry and Tyler Johnson wouldn’t qualify.)

A few questions and answers as the trade deadline approaches:

▪ Do the NBA’s new rules make it easier or more difficult to make a major trade this summer?

There typically are more teams looking to change their rosters in the summer, so realistic trade options should be more plentiful if Miami waits until July, which is expected.

But from a pure tax/cap standpoint, it would be somewhat more difficult to make a trade this summer. If the Heat made a trade now, Miami could take back as much as 110 percent of the salary it’s trading out.

But once this season ends, the Heat’s 2024-25 payroll would likely fall above the first apron (a figure $7 million above the projected $172 million luxury tax line). And teams over the first apron cannot take back more money in a trade than they’re sending out.

For example, the Heat this summer likely couldn’t trade Herro (due $29 million next season) for a player making slightly more than that, an option that’s now available.

The Heat will avoid being over the projected $179 million first apron for 2024-25 if Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant and Caleb Martin all opt out and Miami signs seven players to minimum deals. That’s highly unlikely.

Martin is expected to opt out of $7.1 million next season, but Love and potentially Bryant and Richardson figure to opt in. In fact, Miami’s payroll would be very close to the second apron ($190 million) if all four opt in.

Beginning this summer, teams above the second tax apron (which is $17 million above the tax line; projected to be $189 million) will be unable to take back more salary than they send out (the rule in place for first apron teams) and also will be prohibited from aggregating two or more players in a trade, even if those two players have a higher total outgoing salary than the player being acquired.

Second apron teams also won’t be permitted to use cash as a carrot in a trade.

▪ So does that mean the Heat should move one of the Big Three now?

No, because A). That’s not how this front office operates; B). Last year’s run to the Finals earned them some benefit of the doubt despite the recent uneven play; and C). There’s reason to allow this season and this core to play out.

“It’s maybe premature to break it up,” said a longtime Eastern Conference scout who has watched the Heat this season. “They went to the Finals last year and their roster is pretty good. The postseason will be telling. I would think they would wait it out. But I would expect changes this summer if they [flame out].”

Miami has been unwilling to consider trading Adebayo for any of the top stars made available and that’s unlikely to change. “I don’t see them dealing Bam [in the offseason or beyond],” the scout said. “He’s everything the Heat is.”

A Herro trade now would be selling low. “There’s mixed view of him league wide,” the scout said. “He has value. He can get his own shot, can score, has got some playmaking skills. We know he’s excellent as a sixth man, and he’s a top half starting [two guard] to me.”

As for Butler, the scout said if the Heat surprisingly ever traded him, “you would get some good assets. You’ll get a first, a good starter.” Butler is due $48.8 million next season and has a $52.4 million player option for 2025-26. He’s eligible for a contract extension this summer and it’s unclear if he will ask for one.

Keep in mind that trading Butler - even this summer - wouldn’t give the Heat max cap space or anything remotely close to it.

▪ If the Heat flames out in postseason, would a semi-rebuild ever be considered?

That’s highly doubtful. It would be one thing to consider dealing Butler for a veteran of similar skill, though there’s no indication that the Heat would do that. But this is clear: The Heat fundamentally disagrees with the idea of trading a top player mostly for draft picks and cap-facilitating fillers, for multiple reasons:

1). The Heat’s research shows that multiyear ‘tanking’ rebuilds don’t work out nearly often enough to justify them and 2). The Heat believes in fielding a competitive team most every year.

Now, if the Heat misses the playoffs or exits meekly, it’s certainly possible that anything could be considered to revamp a roster that, as currently constituted, could carry a tax of more than $20 million next season. But the Heat would need to believe that any trade would leave it talented enough to be a playoff-caliber team next season.

So the Heat’s core remains intact, likely to get a fifth chance to defy the odds and win a championship.