Need help with your Gator Bowl prediction? Experts break down teams’ motivations.
Picking a winner in the 2023 Gator Bowl matchup between Clemson and Kentucky might depend on how you view the two teams’ mindsets entering the game.
Clemson started the season ranked No. 9 with dreams of returning to the College Football Playoff. Kentucky began the year hoping the return of offensive coordinator Liam Coen and addition of top transfer quarterback Devin Leary would lead to an offensive resurgence that made it a contender in the SEC East race.
Both teams fell well short of those goals in the regular season but have one more chance to enter the offseason on a high note. Both bring some momentum into the game with Clemson on a four-game winning streak and Kentucky coming off an upset of archrival Louisville, which was ranked in the top 10 at the time of the regular season finale.
The Gator Bowl is a step down from Clemson’s usual spot in the New Year’s Six games. Kentucky has played there twice in the last eight years, but landing a trip to the the Jacksonville, Florida, game was viewed as an unexpected perk on bowl selection Sunday for a Wildcats program that looked headed to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina, before Alabama leapfrogged Florida State for a spot in the playoff.
So, how are the two teams approaching the game? Here is what beat reporters Chapel Fowler (The State) and Jon Hale (Lexington Herald-Leader) said about the teams they covered in an appearance on a video preview of the game with Herald-Leader sports columnist John Clay.
How Clemson is approaching the Gator Bowl
FOWLER: “I think honestly with the way their roster is for this bowl game they could spin it either way. They are down a number of big guys. Jeremiah Trotter, linebacker, opted out. Cornerback Nate Wiggins opted out. Those guys are probably first-round draft picks. Ruke Orhorhoro, defensive tackle, he’s opted out. He’s probably a third- or fourth-round guy. They finally lost serious depth pieces to the portal: starting safety Andrew Mukuba, starting wide receiver Beaux Collins, a number of rotational guys behind them. So, they’re down at a lot of positions.
“On that Gator Bowl Zoom with the two coaches a few weeks ago Dabo (Swinney) was joking about having to play cornerback because of how light at that position. (Mark) Stoops was joking with him with the way (Swinney) runs down the hill maybe they’d need him out there. That was kind of just a tongue-in-cheek coach exchange, but it’s not too far from the truth. Cornerback is ridiculously low in terms of guys available right now.
“I could foresee if there’s a resounding Clemson win, it’s the clearest message that Clemson is here to stay, the future of Clemson has never been better. If Clemson loses this game, all those departures, all those absences from portal, from opt-outs, there’s a very easy thing to fall back on, which is, ‘We were not at full strength, the Clemson you saw over these last four games, that’s what you should think about, that’s what you should be excited about when you think about the 2023 season.’
“But I think it is telling Clemson didn’t have any opt-outs (previously). They were in the CFP every year. They didn’t have to worry about opt-outs. Clemson has not had many relevant people transfer. They have not really been affected by these things. We talk about college football catching up with Clemson instead of Clemson being on the cutting edge. There’s another example. Lots of other teams in America have to deal with their best guys opting out. Lots of other teams have to deal with big names transferring. Clemson is not in the CFP this year, so they’re having to deal with the same thing. I think that is another sign of how this season has brought them a little bit back to Earth to some degree just in terms of all the stuff in college football everybody seems to be occupied with except for them.”
How Kentucky is approaching the Gator Bowl
HALE: “It’s interesting they’re not shying away from how important the game is at all. You would think that maybe after beating Louisville they’d be happy with that and be like, ‘Oh, it’s not going to change things one way or the other,’ but it seems like they are buying into the narrative that winning this game is big for momentum heading into the offseason. I think the evidence they’re actually caring is just how many players are actually playing in the game.
“We saw last year all three of their draft picks opted out of the Music City Bowl and Mark Stoops didn’t have any of their outgoing transfers play in the game and their depth was just not there against Iowa. The offense was nonexistent. They were going to need a defensive or special teams score to get on the board in that game, and that didn’t happen. So, seeing this year Ray Davis, Trevin Wallace, Andru Phillips, all those guys have already declared for the draft as underclassmen and are still playing in the game. … At least three (outgoing transfers) are still on the roster for the game, some important depth pieces like JuTahn McClain at running back. Then you just look at their seniors who don’t have any eligibility left but are theoretically trying to go to the draft — guys like Devin Leary at quarterback — who are playing in the game. The fact that all those guys are playing says it’s still important to them.
“We’ll see. I’m still kind of skeptical that Ray Davis is going to get 25 carries in this game or something like that because he was the one who took longest to decide he was going to play, but those guys are at least available and I think it sends a message throughout the locker room that this is not about preparing for the future. This is about going out and getting a win this season.
“... I think it’s interesting because all of the projections that week after Louisville and just logic was they were going to go to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and play a lesser opponent. Then because Florida State gets left out of the playoff, it creates this cascading effect where all the SEC teams move up a notch and they get this opportunity to play Clemson. I think if they had been in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against a N.C. State or something like that, none of these guys would be playing in the game. You just have to look at the fact that both Ray Davis and Andru Phillips declared for the draft before the bowl announcement, we all reported they were opting out of the bowl, they had more than a week to correct us on that. Nobody did, and then magically when they get a Clemson matchup in the Gator Bowl these guys are playing again.
“So, I think that’s a big part. They see, ‘we closed the regular season on a high note against Louisville, now we get a marquee opponent,’ who’s frankly down this year and has been more damaged by opt outs than Kentucky is. I think they sense the opportunity. Whether it’s real or not, the perception will be if they beat Clemson that’s a nice feather in the cap to add to the end of the season.”
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