High egg prices impacting Centre County grocery stores, restaurants. When could it end?

Half-empty egg sections and signs limiting egg purchases have sprung up across grocery stores in Centre County — and the nation — as avian influenza, or bird flu, continues to have a widespread impact on both the supply and price of eggs across the country.

A sign at Aldi in College Township limited shoppers to two dozen eggs on Thursday. In the Giant on North Atherton Street, cartons of a dozen eggs were sold out Tuesday — although other quantities remained available. And at Weis Markets near Bellefonte, a notice was posted Friday to apologize for “experiencing sporadic out of stocks” on all specialty eggs.

Nationally, on average, egg prices have increased more than 50% since June, back when a dozen eggs cost $2.72. The soaring prices today are mainly a result of the egg shortage caused by avian influenza, which killed 17.2 million egg-laying hens in November and December. (That amounts to about 5% of the country’s inventory.)

Pennsylvania has largely been spared so far by avian influenza, as no commercial flocks — just a suspected wild flock — have been diagnosed with the disease since last February. But shortages elsewhere have still caused widespread supply-chain issues that have impacted local grocers and restaurants alike.

When will prices come down?

Gregory Martin, a Penn State Extension educator in poultry, may not have a crystal ball. But he does boast both an MBA and a doctorate in Poultry Science.

And, in this case, he believes the answer for falling prices might lie in the past.

In 2022, a similar wave of avian influenza hit the U.S. Egg prices crossed the $4/dozen threshold in December 2022, rose to a high of $4.82 the next month and decreased slightly in February 2023 to $4.21. Prices continued to plunge afterward. Until last month, that proved to be the only three-month stretch in the last decade when eggs cost more than $4, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor.

This time around? Prices again crossed the $4/dozen threshold in December and have continued to climb this month.

“I’m going to say with fairly good confidence we’re going to see the same thing,” said Martin, who’s based out of Lancaster, in Pennsylvania’s highest-egg-producing county. “We’re going to see a spike in the price of eggs and, as hens come back into production, we’ll start to see a decrease in the price of eggs as we head into summer.”

According to Martin, it takes about 16-20 weeks to replace an egg-laying hen, while replacing a chicken raised for its meat takes less than half that time — which is why shortages affect egg prices significantly more. The peaks and valleys of avian influenza also generally coincide with the timing of humans’ flu season, reaching its peak in the winter months and greatly dissipating by summer.

Local impact on restaurants

David Welsch understands that locals are feeling the pinch in grocery stores. But as the co-owner of The Naked Egg Cafe, one of Centre County’s top breakfast/brunch spots, he’s feeling it too.

His cafe, which boasts about two dozen different egg dishes, goes through roughly 1,800 eggs every week.

“We’ve seen swings of $20 or more a case (of 180 eggs), week by week, month by month,” he said. “And part of that is just normal fluctuation, but obviously a bigger part of that — especially recently with eggs — has been due to the unforeseen circumstances with production.”

Because The Naked Egg goes through so many eggs, it buys from a bulk-food supplier and tends to stick with the highest-quality products they offer. Welsch lamented how they’ve had to raise their prices since opening in 2013 — one egg à la carte costs $1.89 today compared to about 90 cents back then — but eggs have more than doubled in price over the last 12 years.

Welsch intimated his cafe can withstand a temporary cost increase without passing it on to his customers. But, if costs continue to rise for a longer period of time, that might have to change.

Chris Paret, who recently took over the two Original Waffle Shop locations around State College, agreed with that sentiment.

“We’re just riding the wave,” Paret said. “We don’t want to pass those costs on to our customers; we want to offer a stable price for our customers — and value. But, in this world, you’ve got to keep an eye on prices and do everything in a strategic way.”

Effect on local farmers?

About eight miles east of Welsch’s cafe, at Bear Meadows Farm near Boalsburg, owner Jeff Biddle can empathize.

He’s a self-proclaimed “small-time guy,” a small-scale farmer who specializes in raw milk, eggs and cheese. He has about 150 free-range, egg-laying hens that produce about 1,000 eggs every week. And avian influenza is often in the back of his mind.

“It’s always something you’re concerned with,” he said.

About two years ago, during the last wave of avian influenza, Biddle said a specialist visited to educate him about the warning signs — how infected hens might experience a blue/purple discoloration around their beak or legs from oxygen deprivation, how they might lack coordination, or how their eggs might be soft-shelled or misshapen. With concern about avian influenza spreading to dairy cattle, Biddle said the state has also been testing his milk from time to time to ensure it’s safe.

Martin, the Penn State expert, encouraged consumers to at least pasteurize their own raw milk. But he also said people shouldn’t be too worried about contracting the disease themselves. Although Martin has seen entire bird flocks healthy one day and dead 48 hours later, he’s never caught avian influenza himself, despite coming in direct contact with infected animals.

Some 66 human cases of avian influenza have been reported in the U.S. since last year, most of which came after exposure to infected dairy cows. But no human cases have ever been reported in Pennsylvania. And only one person in the U.S. has ever died from the disease, and they were over 65 years old with underlying health conditions.

While the bird flu is something that concerns Biddle, it’s not something that seems to heavily impact his farm — as long as it remains disease-free. Like Welsch and Paret, he said he’s just looking to make an honest living. And if his expenses remain flat, so will the cost of his eggs, even if prices rise everywhere else.

At $4/dozen, his eggs right now are cheaper than at supermarkets.

“Just because there’s a shortage, it’s not costing me more money to produce them,” he said. “I haven’t lost hundreds, or thousands, of birds. And it’s one of those things: If egg prices rise to $6 a dozen, I’ll still be at $4. And if egg prices go to $2 a dozen, well, I’ll still be at $4.”

For more information on avian influenza and where to get help, Penn State has a page for farmers and the general public at extension.psu.edu/avian-influenza.