Should the Indianapolis Colts have taken Will Levis instead of Anthony Richardson?

It would have been difficult to predict Will Levis’ NFL Draft slide in September.

After a week of national buzz about the head-to-head matchup between Levis and fellow top quarterback draft prospect Anthony Richardson, Levis had clearly won the battle in a victory over Richardson’s Florida Gators.

Richardson was coming off the best performance of his career in an upset of Utah, but Kentucky’s defense was able to mostly shut him down, limiting him to just 4 rushing yards while completing 14 of 35 passes for 143 yards and two interceptions. One of those interceptions was returned 65 yards for a touchdown.

Meanwhile Levis completed 13 of 24 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception to lead Kentucky to its first back-to-back wins over Florida since 1977. He made one of the most impressive throws of his college career on a 55-yard touchdown pass to freshman Dane Key through tight coverage.

For one day at least, it seemed clear that Levis had the edge over Richardson. On Thursday, that pecking order was reversed though when the Indianapolis Colts took Richardson with the No. 4 pick, setting up Levis’ slide out of the first round.

The case to draft Richardson and Levis with a top-10 pick was similar. Both boast impressive physical gifts but brought the baggage of middling college stats to the draft.

Optimistic teams could see either player developing into the next Josh Allen since the Buffalo Bills’ star quarterback entered his draft with a similar profile. The most likely outcome is neither Levis or Richardson is the “next Josh Allen,” but there is a reason Indianapolis Star columnist Gregg Doyle called Richardson “the most perfect lump of clay any NFL franchise has ever seen at quarterback” after the Colts drafted him.

Richardson began rocketing up mock drafts after a stellar showing at the NFL combine when he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds and recorded a 40.5-inch vertical jump. We don’t know how Levis, who was recovering from a foot injury that plagued him for most of the 2022 season, would compare to those numbers because he did not run the 40-yard dash or participate in any non-throwing drills at either the combine or Kentucky’s pro day.

“I felt great, but I felt what I had on tape was enough to show that I have the mobility and I’m able to make those plays out of the pocket,” Levis said when asked about not running at UK’s pro day. “If I didn’t have to train even more for (the 40-yard dash), I felt like I was good.”

Perhaps Levis not training for the 40-yard dash was a mistake, or maybe the report of teams being concerned about the medical reports regarding his foot meant the slide was coming regardless.

The Colts, who had been heavily linked to Levis in the days leading up to the draft, choosing Richardson had to sting, though. Levis met with Colts executives and coaches multiple times during the pre-draft process and even received a ringing endorsement from Colts legend Peyton Manning.

In his final mock draft posted just hours before the actual draft started, ESPN analyst Todd McShay wrote, “The Levis love in Indianapolis is real.”

Richardson started just 13 games at Florida, completing only 54.7% of his passes in college, but it is worth noting that his 2022 stats were still arguably better than Levis’ numbers.

In 12 games, Richardson completed 53.8% of his passes for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions while gaining 654 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Levis, who played through turf toe that reportedly limited his ability to practice for much of the season, completed 65.4% of his passes for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 11 games. After rushing for 391 yards and nine touchdowns as a junior at Kentucky, Levis was credited with a net loss of 107 yards with two rushing touchdowns as a senior.

Even before the turf toe, Kentucky offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello had chosen to limit the amount of designed runs he called for Levis, in part to avoid unnecessary hits that might jeopardize his NFL future. That strategy backfired as Kentucky’s rebuilt offensive line struggled mightily, ranking 126th of 131 teams nationally in sacks allowed.

The pass protection problems were already evident in week two when Levis and Richardson squared off considering one of the postgame topics of conversation was how impressive Levis had been in staying in the pocket after one bone-crushing hit in the first half.

“It’s the one trait that separates guys,” Scangarello said after the game. “… One of the things I always love about great quarterbacks is when they get hit they’re still following the ball as it’s in the air. They don’t flinch. That’s just Will. That’s a trait that defines guys. The great ones have it, and Will is one of those guys.”

There was plenty working against Levis as a senior.

Liam Coen, UK’s offensive coordinator during Levis’ breakout 2021 season, had returned to the NFL. His top three receivers, including New York Giants’ second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson, were gone. Three starters on the offensive line, including Jacksonville Jaguars center Luke Fortner, had to be replaced. Levis’ new top targets were both freshmen. He also was slowed by injuries to his hamstring, non-throwing hand and non-throwing shoulder at various points.

Levis’ biggest supporters made the argument leading up to the draft that teams should ignore his 2022 performance for those reasons, focusing only on 2021. Clearly, the Colts (and Panthers and Texans who took quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud at No. 1 and No. 2) made a different calculation.

Sliding to the second round does not mean Levis cannot still outperform his college stats to become the face of an NFL franchise. Brett Favre, Drew Brees and Jalen Hurts were all drafted in the second round. It does not even mean Levis still will not make the Colts regret opting for Richardson at No. 4.

But on the same day Lamar Jackson signed a contract extension that made him the NFL’s highest-paid player, the Colts opted for the quarterback who might have the best chance to duplicate Jackson’s unique brand of play-making.

Five years ago it was Jackson caught on cameras in the draft green room during an agonizing drop through the first round. The Baltimore Ravens traded up to take him at No. 32, the last pick of the first round, and end that slide.

There were only 31 picks in the first round this year since the Miami Dolphins forfeited their selection, but as of Friday morning the Pittsburgh Steelers were reportedly already receiving inquiries about trades for the No. 32 selection from teams interested in taking Levis with the first pick of the second round.

If in five years Levis has continued to follow Jackson’s career path, he probably will take the trade-off of one agonizing night in front of cameras.

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