Inside Big 12’s struggles as a No. 3 seed and how Kansas State can avoid March sadness
There was no reason for Kansas State to feel a sense of dread during the NCAA Tournament’s bracket reveal last Sunday. A place on the third line reflected the Wildcats’ status in the NCAA selection committee’s overall seeding, where K-State landed 11th.
But then the bracket wizards studied trends and came up with this nugget: The last four times a No. 3 seed lost to a 14th seed, the favorite was a Big 12 team.
March sadness? The Big 12 knows it well.
The Wildcats take on No 14 Montana State in the East Region on Friday at Greensboro, North Carolina. Baylor, also a third seed, meets UC Santa Barbara Friday in the South Region.
Kansas State coach Jerome Tang, who has been involved on the wrong end of a 14-over-3 as a Baylor assistant, said the way to avoid thinking about seeding and favorites is to scrub the idea from any and all conversations.
“We remove the numbers from the bracket,” Tang said. “It’s one team against another on a neutral site. The ball doesn’t care about numbers or who is seeded higher.”
The same sentiment could have been expressed about the Wildcats at the beginning of the season, when they were picked to finished 10th — last — in the Big 12.
Kansas State felt like the hunter in that situation and used the perceived disrespect as rocket fuel to finish third in the Big 12. The Wildcats also placed two players on the all-conference team (Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell), and Tang was recognized as the Big 12 coach of the year.
Montana State can play that card now, but the Wildcats said the won’t feel like they’re being chased.
“I feel like we’re hunting, no matter what,” Nowell said. “I still feel like we have a lot to prove. I say keep that chip on your shoulder.”
The most recent history of Big 12 misfortune in the 3/14 game dates to 2021, when Texas lost to Abilene Christian. Before that, West Virginia fell to Stephen F. Austin.
The Big 12 delivered a twofer pratfall in 2015. On the same day, Georgia State defeated Baylor with Tang serving as assistant coach — remember Panthers coach Ron Hunter falling from his chair when his son hit the game winner? — and Iowa State lost to Alabama-Birmingham.
“We don’t talk about that one,” Iowa State radio analyst Eric Heft said.
By seed, a loss to a No. 14 is the worst in the NCAA Tournament for several Big 12 schools, and it doesn’t stop at the most recent four. Kansas fell to Bucknell in 2005.
On paper, 3-vs.-14 games are supposed to be mismatches. Entering this year’s tournament, the No. 14 seed is 18-110 vs. the No. 3 since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
But if the teams get to the final media timeout and it’s a close game, the No 14 seed feels good about its chances. That team is 12-9 in games decided by three or fewer points.
Once a No. 14 pulls the upset, that’s about as far it goes. Only two have advanced past the second round.
Historically, No. 14 seeds are champions of mid- to low-major conferences, which typically makes them big winners during the season. Montana State is 25-9 and has won 13 of its last 14. Also, the Bobcats played in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Montana State was a 14-seed last season and lost to Texas Tech by 35.
Also, there is a David vs. Goliath theme to this numerical matchup. Every losing third-seeded team hailed from a power conference, and the first one lives in literary history.
In 1986, Cleveland State upset Indiana, and that was the season author John Feinstein was granted access to the Hoosiers and coach Bob Knight for a book that became a best seller: “A Season on the Brink.”
