Johnny Furphy broke out in first Kansas-Houston game. Will he do it again? Prediction

The No. 14-ranked Kansas men’s basketball team will travel to Houston to play the Cougars on Saturday.

The Jayhawks (22-8, 10-7 Big 12) beat Kansas State on Tuesday. Meanwhile, UH beat UCF on Wednesday.

The Cougars have already locked up at least a share of the Big 12 title, but the Jayhawks actually took the first meeting between these teams in February.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

No. 14 Kansas vs. No. 1 Houston

When/where: 3 p.m., Fertitta Center (Houston)

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 27-3, 14-3 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: No. 1

Betting line: Houston is a 9.5-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Houston Team Strengths

• Effective defense: The Cougars rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.3). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. By comparison, Kansas ranks No. 10 in the same category.

• Turnover creators: Houston does an excellent job of forcing teams to turn the ball over, with opponents ranking No. 3 in turnover percentage (24.3%).

• Second chances: UH ranks No. 7 in offensive rebounding percentage (30.7).

Houston team weaknesses

• Free-throw issues: Houston ranks No. 301 in free throw percentage (68.5%).

• Struggles inside the arc: The Cougars rank No. 244 in 2-point percentage (48.9%)

• Size advantage? Houston ranks No. 332 in average team height, and UH doesn’t start a player taller than 6-8. Hunter Dickinson, listed at 7-2, had 20 points on 9-for-15 shooting in the first meeting.

Houston Name to Know

6–foot-1 senior guard L.J Cryer (No. 4)

+ Leading scorer (15.8 ppg)

+ Good 3-point shooter (39.1% 3-point range)

+ Good free-throw shooter (shooting 87.1% from the line)

+ Quick hands (1.1 steals per game)

+ Elite at limiting turnovers (0.8 turnovers per game)

- Not much of a passer (1.9 APG)

Tale of the Tape

Although UH only ranks No. 134 in 3-point percentage (34.7%), guard Jamal Shead isn’t afraid to shoot from deep — 3-pointers account for 31.4% of his shots.

Here, Shead pulled up for the 3-pointer with minimal space over the UCF defender and made it. This is where Kansas has to be careful. Because of Shead’s quick trigger, KU constantly needs to be in his air space.

In the first meeting against the Jayhawks, he only had seven points and missed all three 3-pointers, as KU did an excellent job of not letting him get quality looks.

Game prediction

This game will be tough for the Jayhawks, not only because Houston is so sound overall, but also because of what’s on the line for them: an outright Big 12 title on senior night.

Like last time against the Cougars, Kansas needs to get off to a fast start and hit timely 3-pointers.

On the defensive end, Kansas needs to keep Houston off the boards, as rebounds allow the Cougars to get second-chance opportunities and help swing momentum in their favor.

The Jayhawks will have an uphill battle to win this game, especially if KU guard Kevin McCullar misses it. He “re-tweaked” his knee, KU coach Bill Self said, against K-State.

I think Houston will win this one.

Houston 75, Kansas 67

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+9.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 21-7

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 14-14

KU Player to watch: Johnny Furphy

After having a streak of five straight games with double-digit points, Johnny Furphy has had two straight games in single digits. The Australian guard hasn’t looked like his usual self on the offensive end.

For Furphy, it’s pivotal he gets back on track offensively before the start of the Big 12 Tournament.

Remember, he had his breakout game vs. Houston in the first meeting, when he dropped 17 points. Let’s see if he replicates that on the road.