Can Kansas basketball handle a desperate K-State team? Prediction & betting odds

The No. 14-ranked Kansas men’s basketball team will play host to rival K-State in another iteration of the Sunflower Showdown on Tuesday night at Allen Fieldhouse.

Both teams are coming off losses. The Jayhawks (21-8, 9-7 Big 12) fell to Baylor on Saturday while the Wildcats lost to Cincinnati.

Kansas also lost to K-State in February.

Here is a scouting report and prediction for the game:

No. 14 Kansas vs. Kansas State

When/where: 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse

TV/streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 17-12, 7-9 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 68

Betting line: Kansas is a 10.5-point favorite.

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Kansas State Team Strengths

• Effective defense: The Wildcats rank No. 19 in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.9). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. In comparison, Kansas ranks No. 11.

• Elite at guarding the long ball: K-State ranks No. 38 in opponent three-point percentage (31.1).

• Quality strength of schedule: The Wildcats have played plenty of formidable opponents, ranking No. 31 in strength of schedule.

Kansas State Team Weaknesses

• Turnover galore: K-State ranks No. 352 in turnover percentage (18).

• Minutes turnover: Kansas State doesn’t bring many familiar faces, ranking No. 302 in minutes continuity percentage (21.3).

• Can’t hit from deep: The Wildcats rank No. 278 in 3-point percentage (31.9).

Kansas State Name to Know

5–foot-11 senior guard Tylor Perry (No. 2)

+ Leading scorer (16 ppg)

+ Decent rebounder for his size (3.1 rebounds per game)

+ Good free throw shooter (shooting 91.4% from the line)

+ Quick hands (1.2 steals per game)

- Turnover prone (2.7 turnovers per game)

Tale of the Tape

KU coach Bill Self talks about how dangerous Tylor Perry is with the ball in his hands, and this clip is a perfect example. Despite being just 5-foot-11, Perry is a master of creating space to get off his shots.

Cincinnati played nearly perfect defense and he still connected on a 3-pointer. For the Jayhawks, the key will be to put Dajuan Harris on him and take the ball out of his hands. Doing that puts a lot of pressure on the rest of this K-State team that can struggle to score overall.

Game Prediction

While this is a must-win for both sides, KU is a heavy favorite here for a reason.

Not only are the Jayhawks playing at home, but it’s Senior Night. It should be a relatively stress-free evening for the home team as long as Kansas doesn’t turn the ball over a lot — or let K-State get hot from deep again.

I expect a big Jayhawks win.

Kansas 74, K-State 65

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: K-State (+10.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 20-7

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 14-13

KU Player to watch: KJ Adams

It’s well documented that KU’s offensive spacing with Adams and Hunter Dickinson on the floor isn’t the best.

Usually, that doesn’t matter much, because what Adams provides on both ends makes him so valuable. But lately Adams hasn’t been his usual aggressive self on offense, and KU hasn’t done a great job of getting him involved.

Turning that around is critical as the Jayhawks prepare for another March run. He’s a matchup nightmare for K-State, so Tuesday night’s game could provide a good setting for him to get back on track.