Kentucky’s defense has been bad. Will it be better next season? ‘A lot of question marks.’
John Calipari didn’t make any concrete promises about it before Kentucky’s 2022-23 basketball season began, but he clearly had some expectations.
The Hall of Fame coach knew that his best teams in Lexington had been driven by defense. And he knew that his Wildcats had been largely lacking in that area in recent seasons.
The eyeballs said that Calipari’s UK teams were at their most dominant when they had guys who could impose their will at the rim, and the numbers backed it up. Before the Cats’ first exhibition game in the Bahamas last summer, Calipari was asked if this could be one of his best defensive teams at Kentucky. He said he couldn’t say. It was too early. But he did know one thing.
“When I’ve had shot-blocking teams, we’ve been to Final Fours, national titles,” Calipari said. “And when we haven’t, we’ve been good teams … but it’s hard to have a breakthrough game in that tournament without someone who can block shots.”
A couple of weeks earlier, UK assistant coach Chin Coleman had gone quite a bit further.
“We should be really, really good defensively. We should block more shots,” he said. “That’s a huge point of emphasis for us is our rim protection.”
Well, that didn’t work out.
Calipari promised in the preseason that he would play players who could protect the rim — pointing to Jacob Toppin and Daimion Collins as potential breakout shot-blockers — but as the games started and the season progressed, it became clear quite quickly that Kentucky would struggle mightily defending the basket. And pretty much every other area of the court.
By the end of a disappointing campaign, the numbers were ugly.
No UK player managed to average more than 1.0 blocked shots per game. As a team, the Cats finished 111st nationally in that category, the worst, by far, of the Calipari era. UK finished 126th nationally in opponent field-goal percentage, the first time in 14 years that a Calipari-coached team had ended up outside the top 100. UK was 99th nationally in opponent three-point percentage — the third-worst mark of the Calipari era. And the Cats’ final spot in the KenPom defensive efficiency ratings — No. 68 nationally — was Calipari’s second-worst in 14 seasons.
Kentucky was bad at defending the perimeter, bad at protecting the rim, bad all around.
And, in the end, the Cats finished 22-12 and failed to make it out of the first week of the NCAA Tournament, just as Calipari had unwittingly foreshadowed in the preseason.
Will UK’s defense be any better next season? For the Wildcats to make a March Madness run, it’ll probably have to be.
Why was Kentucky so bad?
There was reason to believe in a defensive resurgence for the Cats before this past season began. Star big man Oscar Tshiebwe was known to be limited at best — a liability at worst — on that end of the court, but Collins and Toppin were athletic forwards with plenty of length and burst around the basket, freshman Cason Wallace was billed as possibly the best perimeter defender in the 2022 recruiting class, fellow newcomer Chris Livingston had the tools to be a successful defender and other Wildcats drew Calipari’s praise in the preseason.
It never really materialized.
Collins, possibly the player with the highest immediate upside as a rim-protector, missed time at the beginning of the season following the unexpected death of his father, and he was never a consistent contributor as he tried to work his way back onto the court. He ended up with 10 blocks in 25 games.
Toppin struggled to find his game amid heightened expectations for a breakout season, and while he did finally emerge as a key player for Kentucky — and one of the team’s best overall defenders — blocked shots never really factored into his repertoire. He finished with 16 blocks in 33 games.
Tshiebwe actually led the team in blocks with 32 — double the next-best on the squad — and while the 6-9 center had terrific hand-eye coordination that led to steals and tipped balls, he didn’t have the quick lift necessary to deter opposing scorers from taking (and making) shots at the basket.
Freshman center Ugonna Onyenso showed flashes of terrific shot-blocking ability — and finished with 16 blocks in just 110 minutes — but he clearly wasn’t ready to play major minutes against top college competition. (And giving him considerable minutes would have meant drastically cutting Tshiebwe’s time on the court.)
The result was the worst rim-protecting team of Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky, and that was compounded by the fact that the defense on the perimeter was often just as bad.
“I think their personnel just kind of hindered them in a lot of regards,” 247Sports analyst Travis Branham told the Herald-Leader. “I also think, on top of that, their coverages didn’t match their personnel. A guy like Oscar Tshiebwe, you can’t play him in every single type of coverage. You have to simplify things. I don’t think they necessarily did that for him. I think they put him in spots where he actually got even more exposed defensively.
“Historically, Cal has had extremely mobile, extremely talented big men with great size and length. Oscar, frankly, just doesn’t have that. So you’re not able to play like you usually are. But they just didn’t adjust accordingly when it comes to that.”
In the past, Calipari’s best teams had capable perimeter defenders that were made even more dangerous by being able to take some chances at steals and deflections, knowing that — if their man got by them — an imposing rim-protector would be waiting in the paint.
This season’s team had guys making plenty of mistakes away from the basket and no one to clean up those mistakes when the ball got near the rim.
“I also don’t think it was the highest IQ of teams,” Branham said. “You would see quite a few mistakes defensively — blown coverages throughout the course of the season. Not to mention they just didn’t have the talent level that they typically do.”
Branham did single out Wallace as “a very good defender” on the perimeter — and especially in off-the-ball situations — but noted that Kentucky needed much more than that to adequately shut down opposing scorers.
“Not having that rim-protection presence this year, that definitely hurts when guys are getting beat on the perimeter and you don’t have that blanket of security behind you to limit the field-goal percentages,” he said.
And this is becoming a theme of Kentucky basketball.
Three of Calipari’s worst four seasons in opponent field-goal percentage — by national ranking — have come over the past three years. The Cats were 126th in that stat this past season, 70th in 2021-22 and 61st in 2020-21. Not coincidentally, UK won a total of one NCAA Tournament game in that span.
The other season with a poor showing in that stat — 98th nationally in 2016-17 — came during a year where the Cats excelled in other areas defensively and just so happened to be the highest-scoring team, by far, of the Calipari era. That squad — featuring De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo — averaged 84.9 points per game, more than five points higher than any other Calipari club. If opposing teams made shots against them, they could deal with it.
The 2022-23 squad didn’t have that luxury. Nor did the ones that immediately preceded it.
Will UK’s recruits help?
Calipari is already touting the incoming 2023 recruiting class — led by four McDonald’s All-Americans and an additional top-10 national prospect — as a group similar to the previous No. 1-ranked classes that enjoyed so much success early in his Kentucky tenure.
These guys are good. But are they good enough to carry a program with perennial Final Four expectations? And, most importantly, can they defend?
“That’s a really hard thing to answer, to be honest,” Branham said. “I have a hard time gauging exactly what we’re going to get out of this freshman crop next year. And we’ve seen just how important it is to be old, and mature.”
Indeed, the transfer portal and the fifth season of eligibility granted to veteran college players due to the COVID-19 pandemic has allowed programs to stock up on wily veterans who have been through multiple seasons of high-level basketball. The general result has been a greater reliance on older guys and less of an impact for highly touted recruits.
In what could be a make-or-break season for the future of the Calipari era, Kentucky will likely be going against that trend and looking to teenagers to lead them. That’s a risky business, especially with this bunch.
Branham, one of the lead recruiting analysts at 247Sports, went down the list of UK newcomers.
“DJ Wagner is not a defender,” he said. “We wouldn’t classify him as a ‘defender.’ But I will give him credit — he plays really hard every single possession of a basketball game.”
“Rob Dillingham’s definitely not a defender, by any means,” he added.
Kentucky Mr. Basketball Reed Sheppard has shown the ability to be a capable team defender and made some nice defensive plays in the McDonald’s All-American Game last week, but Branham voiced concern regarding his overall ability on that side of the ball. He said that fellow McDonald’s All-Americans often went right at Sheppard in one-on-one situations during the game-week practices and scrimmages.
“I think that was an area that kind of got exposed here at McDonald’s in a way that it’s definitely a concern for him moving forward,” Branham said.
Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard are all listed as combo guards, none taller than 6-3.
Branham said top-five recruit Justin Edwards — a 6-7 small forward — is best suited to guard “3s” and could be an ideal defender of “4s” against a team that likes to space the floor and play small.
“He’s not the greatest laterally,” he said. “But he’s really smart. He’s got great instincts. So, with his size on top of that — he’s pretty versatile and can definitely make an impact on that end, especially when it comes to playing off the ball. He’s not a guy that we’d classify as a defender, by any means. But when it comes to intelligence and his instincts and natural feel for the game — he should have no problem adjusting to the way Coach Cal likes to operate on defense.”
The highest upside on the defensive end belongs to 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw, but there are no guarantees there, either.
“Aaron Bradshaw can be a big-time defender, but his consistency and his motor have, honestly, been inconsistent throughout his entire career,” Branham said. “There are times he just wants to sit out on the perimeter. And there are other times where he just goes through the motions, and you barely even notice he’s on the floor. You just see a 7-footer, but there’s no impact being made. So it’s kind of a big question mark as to what they’re getting.”
There’s not much certainly to what UK is getting back, either.
Toppin, Wallace and Sahvir Wheeler have already announced they’re gone. Tshiebwe is expected to leave, too, and he’s shown his limitations as a defender anyway.
Onyenso has unlimited potential, and he told the Herald-Leader that he will return next season, but there is still buzz in college basketball circles that he could be advised by those in his circle to find a new school. Livingston and Collins might be more likely to leave than stay. Freshman Adou Thiero is still an unknown. Lance Ware is not projected as a high-end defender. Senior guards CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves could both return, but Fredrick — while he’s received praise from Calipari regarding his defense — has shown limitations, as has Reeves.
“There’s just a lot of question marks at this moment of what this team will look like next year,” Branham said.
Hit the transfer portal
Calipari’s preseason comments regarding the necessity of a great defense by the time March rolls around proved prescient. And the tantalizing potential that hovered around this Kentucky team all season was on full display once the NCAA Tournament tipped off.
With Toppin leading the charge, Kentucky defeated Providence 61-53 in the first round, limiting the Friars to 36.2 percent shooting and allowing top scorer Bryce Hopkins just seven points.
It was arguably UK’s best overall defensive effort of the season.
But Calipari knew his team had been inconsistent, to put it kindly, all year, and his comments the following day said as much. The coach noted that the Cats’ preparation for Providence had been good but the “quick flip” of facing Kansas State two days later would be a difficult task.
K-State scored just 29 first-half points against UK the next day, but the purple Wildcats missed a ton of open shots — and went 0-for-12 on threes — in the game’s first 20 minutes. They scored 46 in the second half and beat Kentucky 75-69.
The next night — on his final radio show of the season — Calipari lamented the defensive breakdowns, pointing to one K-State fast break that immediately followed a Kentucky basket as a particularly perplexing moment.
“I looked at that, and I’m like, ‘C’mon guys. That’s an easy play for us to stop,’” he said.
But that was the case all season. The Cats often made the simple look complicated. And while it has been a staple of recent UK teams, it wasn’t there for many of Calipari’s earliest squads.
And his best ones have been as good as anyone on the defensive end.
The three top teams of the Calipari era — most would surely agree — were the first squad headlined by John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, the 2012 national champions, and the 38-1 team from the 2014-15 season.
Each of those three teams finished in the top four nationally in blocked shots per game. Each of those three teams finished in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. The 2012 and 2015 teams both led the nation in opponent field-goal percentage (the 2010 team was third). And the 2015 squad also had the highest KenPom defensive efficiency rating in the country and was third nationally in opponent three-point percentage.
Those were dominant defenses. Their combined record: 111 wins, six losses.
Can Calipari get back to anything approaching that kind of defensive production?
It seems unlikely with the bunch projected to be on the 2023-24 roster.
There is hope for the Wildcats, however.
UK is almost certain to add to next season’s team via the transfer portal.
“Going after a defensive-minded dog who’s really going to rough things up on that end and cause some problems for different teams and that’s reality versatile — I think that could be a good addition,” Branham said.
Such players should be available in the portal, but it’s going to take some deft evaluation by Kentucky’s staff to find the right fit to pair with the program’s incoming recruits, whose collective stature might also be enough to scare off some potential impact transfers who might feel they can play a larger role elsewhere.
Finding “winning” players with a proven ability to defend at a high level and a willingness to share the spotlight is possible, says Branham, who tracks the transfer portal for 247Sports.
“There are some of these low-major, mid-major kids hitting the portal that are honestly really talented,” he said. “And they could be great complementary pieces on a high-major team. And just because of that, they come in and they prove themselves to impact winning.”
Branham sees a couple of routes for Calipari and his staff: try to identify one or two of those established defensive stoppers and make a major play for them; or find more guys with overwhelming but largely untapped talent and hope you can bring the defense out of them (as UK will try to do with Bradshaw, Wagner and others).
“It comes down to evaluating the right players,” he said. “I do think there’s a handful of players in the portal that have age and experience and can bring that defensive presence and take on that leadership role. Or, what has made Cal so good all these years is he can take talent and you’re going to have no choice but to play the way he wants you to play. If you’re not going to be coachable in that regard and do what he tells you, then you’re just not going to play. …
“So it’s going to be one of two things. Either they’re going to have to evaluate a guy who’s just an absolute team guy — gonna do whatever it takes to win and has that (defensive) specialty. Or you just get a really talented dude and you just mold them to your liking.”
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