Maritimes brace for Lee's dangerous wind, flood risk Saturday

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Post-tropical storm Lee has its eye on the Maritimes’ Saturday as the large system skirts by New England on its final approach toward Canadian shores.

Widespread alerts are in effect throughout Nova Scotia and New Brunswick ahead of Lee’s arrival, including tropical storm warnings, storm surge warnings, rainfall warnings, and wind warnings to cover the multitude of threats this storm will pose across the region.

Gusty winds reached the Maritimes Friday, with the bulk of the storm’s wind, rain, rough surf, and coastal flooding arriving Saturday morning. The worst of the storm will peak during the day Saturday.

Thousands of customers are already without power in parts of Nova Scotia due to high winds and rain, according to Nova Scotia Power.

This is a large storm with a sprawling footprint. Lee’s tropical storm-force winds expanded a whopping 630 km from the centre of the storm, with sustained wind of 76 km/h reported at Brier Island, Nova Scotia, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) Saturday morning.

As of Saturday morning, Lee has weakened to a ‘post-tropical cyclone that more closely resembles a potent nor’easter. The difference between tropical and post-tropical won’t change the storm’s impacts. Lee will have wide-ranging effects across the Maritimes over the next 36 hours regardless of its official title.

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WATCH: Tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches in effect across Maritimes

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Lee's maximum sustained winds are 130 km/h. These maximum winds will continue to tick downward as the storm tracks north toward Atlantic Canada.

Despite Lee’s maximum winds falling, the storm’s sprawling footprint is important for any communities in its path. Lower maximum winds does not mean a lower overall threat from this storm.

A threat for heavy rains, high winds, and coastal flooding will extend hundreds of kilometres from the centre of the storm. The biggest concerns will be dangerous surf and coastal flooding, especially during high tide.

As a result of these potential hazards, the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) issued a tropical storm warning for the following areas in Nova Scotia:

• Annapolis County

• Colchester County - Cobequid Bay

• Cumberland County - Minas Shore

• Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

• Halifax County - east of Porters Lake

• Digby County

• Guysborough County

• Hants County

• Kings County

• Lunenburg County

• Queens County

• Shelburne County

• Yarmouth County

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the following areas in New Brunswick:

• Fundy National Park

• Grand Manan and coastal Charlotte County

• Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

• Saint John and County

In addition to the tropical storm warnings, a hurricane watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Halifax, Lunenburg, and Queens Counties in Nova Scotia. These areas could see the potential for near-hurricane conditions during the height of the storm on Saturday.

Given Lee's large size, forecasters expanded a tropical storm watch on Friday afternoon to cover much of New Brunswick including Fredericton and Miramichi, northern Nova Scotia including Cape Breton, as well as all of Prince Edward Island and Iles-de-la-Madeleine.

Areas under the tropical storm watch could see tropical storm conditions this weekend as Lee pushes into the region. "This watch may be upgraded to a tropical storm warning [Friday night] if we see signs of increasing winds," the CHC said Friday afternoon.

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Strongest impacts expected Saturday

The CHC says this will be a Saturday event for the strongest impacts, with lingering impacts expected on Sunday across the Maritimes as the storm weakens and moves away.

Lee is expected to transform into a post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening. Despite this transition, it’s expected to remain a large and powerful system with impacts extending well away from the storm’s centre.

RAIN

Lee’s outer rain bands and gusty winds will push into the Maritimes late Friday night into Saturday morning, with conditions deteriorating through the day as the bulk of the system moves in.

Between 60-100 mm of rain is possible in the southern Maritimes over the weekend. The risk for flooding has increased over western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley.

"There could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm directly from Lee," the CHC warns. "This combined with the rain that fell there Thursday increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area."

WATCH: Hurricane Lee prep is underway for Maritimes residents

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WIND

At the same time, winds will pick up late Friday and peak on Saturday, with gusts of 70-100 km/h expected. Communities along the coast can expect the storm’s strongest winds, with wind speeds quickly decreasing inland.

Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with gusts as high as 120 km/h possible at times. These winds would typically result in some tree damage and power outages, especially as trees still have their leaves.

Gusty winds are still possible Sunday even as conditions improve.

STORM SURGE

High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm. Rough waves and storm surge flooding will pose the greatest threat to coastal communities on the Bay of Fundy shores and the southwest coast of Nova Scotia.

A storm surge warning has been issued for Halifax Metro and Halifax County West, Halifax County - East of Porters Lake, Lunenburg County, Queens County, Shelburne County, Guysborough County. People near the coast are being urged to monitor for worsening conditions and be prepared to move to a safer location at a moment's notice.

"For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia, breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely," says the CHC. "Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves could result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday in Shelburne County then during the high tide late Saturday evening along the coast from Queens County to eastern Halifax County."

Folks across the region are understandably weary about tropical systems after the impacts of Dorian in 2019 and Fiona in 2022.

It’s likely that Hurricane Lee will not be as strong as either of those two systems. However, residents do need to stay on high alert for flooding, power outages, tree damage and coastal flooding.

Stay prepared

We’re now in the climatological peak of hurricane season across the Atlantic basin. Anyone along or near the East Coast should prepare for hazards like power outages and flooding regardless of this one storm’s progress.

Ensure you’ve got non-perishable food, water, personal hygiene supplies, flashlights, and batteries to last for several days without electricity or water. Prepare an emergency plan in case of flooding or evacuations.

STAY SAFE: What you need in your hurricane preparedness kit

Anxiety is normal when there’s a big storm out there. Preparing for a storm long before one arrives ensures you’ll be ready to go if anything looms on the horizon in the weeks and months ahead.

Stay with The Weather Network for the duration of this storm as we closely monitor this hurricane and its developments.

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