'A milestone in climate history': Temperatures worldwide set to break records in 2023 and 2024
Next year's average global temperature may rise higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern history.
The Met Office says that, if its forecasts are accurate, this would mark a "milestone in climate history".
Limiting global warming to 1.5C over 20 years was a key goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, meaning the 2035 target will not be missed based off next year alone.
The forecasters explained that El Nino - a phenomenon where heat rises in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean - will add more heat to the atmosphere at the end of this year.
The naturally occurring weather event is then set to continue into spring 2024, pushing up the average global temperature temporarily.
Dr Nick Dunstone, from the Met Office, said: "The forecast is in line with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2C per decade and is boosted by a significant El Nino event.
"Hence, we expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5C."
Met Office forecasters also expect 2023 to finish with an average of 1.2C above pre-industrial levels - making it near-certainly the hottest year on record.
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Professor Adam Scaife, also from the Met Office, added: "The main driver for record-breaking temperatures is the ongoing human-induced warming since the start of the industrial revolution.
"With a month to go, 2023 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record, exceeding the current record set in 2016 which was also boosted by an El Nino event.
"In addition to the El Nino event, we have anomalous high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and, together with climate change, these factors account for the new global temperature extremes."
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), previously said it was a "near certainty" that 2023 would be the hottest year on record.
"October has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated," she said.
"We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43C above the pre-industrial average."
