A new name debuts in latest SC GOP presidential power rankings, as Scott drops out of race

Two major Republican candidates have dropped out of the presidential primary race and another skipped filing for the South Carolina primary ballot since The State’s last GOP power ranking.

A pair of debates, a war between Israel and Hamas bringing foreign policy to the front burner, and a civil fraud trial involving the leading Republican candidate all have played a recent role in sharpening the race as it barrels toward 2024’s early GOP nominating contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and right here in the Palmetto State.

The field as winnowed as former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out since The State’s third power rankings, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson won’t even appear on the South Carolina ballot.

But the biggest news affecting the rankings came Sunday when U.S. Sen. Tim Scott unexpectedly announced the suspension of his campaign.

In the midst of it all, a new name has surfaced in our rankings.

In the end, South Carolina voters in the Feb. 24 Republican presidential primary will decide who receives all of South Carolina’s GOP delegates.

A little refresher: The State newspaper asked seven political observers in South Carolina to rank their top five candidates according to who they believe would have the best chance to win the South Carolina Republican presidential primary if it were today. A first-place vote received five points in the ranking calculations, a second-place vote received four points, a third-place vote received three points, a fourth-place vote received two points, and a fifth-place vote received one point.

Fifth place: Vivek Ramaswamy

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy remains at fifth in the power rankings after garnering 10 points.

Ramaswamy had performed well enough in national polls to be just off the center of the stage in the debates.

“(I) just don’t see him going anywhere when it’s done, despite a good team here. He seems more a mini Trump curiosity than a vote getting candidate,” said Chip Felkel, a political operative in South Carolina who worked campaigns of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

Ramaswamy has been a firebrand during the campaign and called on Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel to resign from her position following disappointing election results on Nov. 7 for Republicans.

Ramaswamy had fiery exchanges with former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley in last Wednesday’s debate in Miami, invoking her daughter’s previous use of TikTok, leading to Haley calling Ramaswamy “scum.”

“Ramaswamy has shown flashes here and there, including blasting the GOP establishment as ‘losers’ during the Miami debate,” said Adolphus Belk, a Winthrop University political science professor. “Even so, he hasn’t turned the moments into momentum. He’s polling between 5 and 6 percent in South Carolina. If anything, his presence has helped Haley shine at his expense. Not a good look.”

Fourth place: Chris Christie

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with 11 points, makes his debut in The State’s power rankings. He has not been shy with his criticism of the former president, being the main voice on debate stages to lob shots at Donald Trump.

“Chris Christie continues to poll fairly well in New Hampshire, and if he can secure a top three spot in the Granite State he could beat expectations in South Carolina,” said Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at the College of Charleston. “Christie’s criticisms of Trump will appeal to moderate and independent voters in South Carolina.”

Still, Christie is polling in the single digits, and questions remain about whether he could qualify for the fourth GOP debate, scheduled for Dec. 6.

“The ‘tell it like it is’ Republican from New Jersey is a longshot, but he is giving the field a run for its money,” said Dave Wilson, a longtime South Carolina political operative. “He lacks the infrastructure, but he makes up for it in strong jabs against Trump.”

Third place: Ron DeSanis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who received 21 points in the rankings, was the unanimous third choice. He has battled with Haley to be the top alternative to Trump.

“His polling numbers appear to have stabilized and he is no longer in free-fall. That said, he is way behind Trump and doesn’t seem to have much of a strategy how to climb back up,” said Chase Meyer, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.

DeSantis may need a good showing in earlier states in order to do well in South Carolina.

“Although Trump still enjoys a big lead in Iowa, DeSantis picked up a significant endorsement from the state’s governor, Kim Reynolds, who touted his moral clarity, vision, and winning track record in elections. A strong showing in the Hawkeye State could help DeSantis get a closer look from South Carolinians,” Belk said.

Second place: Nikki Haley

The former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations under the Trump administrationreceived 28 points in the ranking and was the unanimous second choice. She climbed in the polls recently, becoming the clear second-place candidate in South Carolina and in several recent polls in New Hampshire. She also recently was tied for second place with DeSantis in a Des Moines Register poll of Iowa voters.

Poll respondents have been taking notice of her strong debate performances.

“Haley is charging to be the top alternative to Trump. She’s strong on the debate stage and proved it again in Miami, especially in her handling of Vivek Ramaswamy and branding him the preferred candidate of Russia and China,” Belk said.

But Haley still has work to do.

“Nikki Haley’s momentum is real, and she has emerged as the most likely Trump alternative in the Palmetto State,” Knotts said. “She has benefited from three strong debate performances, particularly when she can showcase her foreign policy experience.”

First place: Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump, who is facing 91 criminal charges and is involved in a civil trial in New York where a judge has ruled he committed fraud by exaggerating his wealth, still has a commanding lead in the polls for the GOP nomination, both nationally and here in South Carolina. He had 35 points in our ranking as the unanimous top choice.

“Indictments and court appearances are apparently helpful,” said Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University. “DeSantis sinking seems to mostly be benefiting Trump.”

Trump has the support of some of the biggest names in South Carolina politics: Gov. Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, House Speaker Murrell Smith and U.S. Reps. Russell Fry, William Timmons and Joe Wilson.

“While the debate about whether his legal issues are political vulnerabilities isn’t going to settle anytime soon, he has continued to rack up endorsements and project inevitability,” said Rob Godfrey, a longtime South Carolina political operative who previously worked for Haley. “Combine this with the fact that he has hired professionals around his campaign from the start this time, and it is not a huge surprise that rivals have done little to slow him down.”