NBA betting: How to bet the conference finals
The NBA conference finals are set after Sunday's pair of Game 7s provided very little drama. The Boston Celtics pulled away in the second half to beat the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points. Surprisingly, that was the most competitive game of the day. In the most shocking result of the entire postseason, the Mavericks obliterated the top-seeded Suns by 33 points in front of their home crowd in Phoenix. The game was over by halftime with Dallas up 57-27, with Luka Doncic's 27 first-half points matching the output of the entire Suns team.
The results of both games were a lot to digest. Who could have predicted after Phoenix's 30-point win in Game 5 that the Mavericks would respond by winning two straight and complete the upset of a team that won 64 games during the regular season? Or that Boston would bounce back after Jrue Holiday's steal in Game 5 capped off an 11-2 run to give the Bucks a 3-2 edge in the series. Both the Bucks and Suns, last year's conference champions, looked like locks to return to the conference finals. And now it's sunscreen and nine irons for both these teams until next season.
Make no mistake, fans are getting everything they could ask for with the two remaining matchups. From a betting perspective, both should be highly competitive. The Warriors are the biggest series favorite at -250, but if Steph Curry isn't ready to pass the torch to Luka yet, he better get rid of the Mavericks in six games. If there is one player who might be an auto bet in Game 7s going forward, it's Doncic.
The NBA playoff schedule resumes Tuesday night with Boston and Miami. The Western Conference final follows on Wednesday, allowing an additional day of rest. I will have my best bets for each Game 1 on Tuesday, but here are some important points that I will be taking into consideration when wagering on these two critical series.
The rest factor
Rest was a massive talking point that rightfully drove bettors mad during the season, but this is why they do it. After 82 games, the postseason pushes you past 100 if you want to reach the ultimate goal. Three of the four teams have played 11 playoff games, with the Mavericks playing the most at 13.
Coming off a physically grueling and highly emotional seven-game series, does it make sense to fade the Mavericks and/or Celtics in Game 1? Per Raheem Palmer from Action Network, teams that win a Game 7 are 32-49 (39%) SU in the following series. Both teams coming off Game 7s are also playing Game 1 on the road, with Boston starting a day early due to having the early game on Sunday. Miami's current money line price is a reasonable -135 while the Warriors are the heavier favorite at -225.
Don't overvalue Game 1
It's hard not to get carried away after the first game of the series. It's the first time you see how the teams will attack each other with only one being initially successful. The odds are shifting dramatically if the underdog wins, and it's difficult to imagine the losing team winning four of the next six games. But it happens more than you think.
Last postseason, teams that won Game 1 only won the series eight of 15 times (53%). So far in 2022, teams that jumped out to a 1-0 lead are 8-4, but only 2-2 in the last round with Dallas and Boston advancing after dropping Game 1. Dallas dropped the first game in both the opening round versus Utah and against Phoenix. Historically, Game 1 winners take the series at over a 70% rate but keep in mind as we get deeper in the playoffs, the competition is more evenly matched. Don't overreact to one game as all four of these teams are capable of coming back.
Wagering on the series winner
When betting on the series winner, it's important to consider your entry point. As the series unfolds, the odds will move significantly and you want to have a strategy to get the most value out of the team you are targeting. Here are the current odds for each series at BetMGM:
Celtics (-165) vs. Heat (+135)
Warriors (-250) vs. Mavericks (+200)
We will want to approach each series individually since we have two different scenarios. The favorite has home-court advantage in the West, while the underdog has home court in the East. This is important because the teams are likely to be in a better position after their home games. If you would like to bet Boston to win the series, you have to decide if there is a point in the series where you can get them at a better price. We previously discussed how Game 1 could be a tough spot, so they may be available at a better price heading into Game 2. Dallas has opened both series with losses and now travels to take on a rested Warriors team. What do we think the odds will be after Game 1 if the Warriors win convincingly? Projecting how the early part of the series will go, allows you to evaluate the risk and hopefully get the winning team at the best price.
