NBA scout weighs in on Heat’s acquisition of Rozier. And the Martin quandary, Heat notes
When I called an NBA scout Tuesday, I was greeted with “What a great move.”
The scout, who works for another Eastern Conference team, knew the topic: New Heat guard Terry Rozier, who was acquired from Charlotte for Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-rounder pick.
“This,” the scout said, “is a no-brainer to me, from the Heat’s standpoint. He’s perfect for them.”
Why so?
“He’s having a great year. He can create his own shot. He can play both guard positions. He’s competitive. It gives them another major scoring option, and they needed that; they’ve now got four major scoring options. He’s got Heat spirit and culture.”
He’s 25th in the NBA in scoring at 23.2 points per game and 14th in assists at 6.6. (Both are career highs.)
How does the scout view him as a point guard?
“His playmaking is a tad underrated,” the scout said. “He sees people. He can penetrate. He can get in the lane and dish. He can run pick-and-roll. He’s more of a point guard than [Tyler] Herro. You have to guard him.”
Negatives?
“He takes the occasional bad shot, will force it some.”
And… “he’s not great defensively.” But “but he’s competitive. He’s got defensive physical tools — he’s long, athletic enough, quick.”
Overall? “The guy is much better than what they had. Whether he’s a starter or sixth man, he’s major minutes guy and he’s going to give them some juice. It’s like an instant [injection]. I think it moves them up; to me, they’re better than New York now.”
The scout said if he were Erik Spoelstra, he would start Haywood Highsmith or Caleb Martin with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Rozier and Herro to give Miami a third good defender in the lineup (with Butler and Adebayo) and compensate for a backcourt that’s clearly better on offense than defense (though Herro has improved defensively).
THIS AND THAT
Rozier’s stats this season are remarkably similar to those of Boston’s Jaylen Brown, who signed the richest contract in NBA history this past offseason (five-year supermax extension worth up to $303.7 million).
Rozier is averaging 23.2 points, Brown 23.1.
Both are shooting 35.8 percent on threes.
Both average 1.1 steals.
Brown shoots better overall from the field (49.3 to 45.9), but Rozier averages far more assists (6.6 to 3.6) and fewer turnovers (2.2 to Brown’s 2.5).
The caveat is that Brown doesn’t need to score as much because he’s playing with better talent around him, including Jayson Tatum.
But the fact Rozier measures up statistically in many ways to the owner of the NBA’s richest contract shouldn’t be simply dismissed.
▪ Rozier’s 3.0-to-1 assist to turnover ratio is 40th best in the league and 10th among starting point guards.
▪ Rozier is making 39.3 percent of his pull-up threes, which is excellent.
▪ The player Rozier defends is shooting 49.7 percent, compared with 47.2 percent overall.
▪ The Heat is the only team in the league with four scorers averaging at least 20 points per game.
MARTIN CHOICE
Even though $6 million in 2023-24 salary was purged in the trade, the Heat is still restricted in the buyout market. As a team over the first apron ($7 million above the tax line), Miami cannot sign a free agent making more than $12 million.
The Heat could eliminate that restriction by trading Caleb Martin to a team with a trade exception, in exchange for a future second-round pick or two. But such a move would seem short-sighted, because of Martin’s value to the team in a potential playoff run, and also because it’s too early to tell if there will be any buyout options that appeal to Miami.
Even though acquiring Rozier makes it more difficult to retain Martin this summer because of the NBA’s new labor agreement, the Heat could still create enough flexibility to re-sign Martin this summer if it reshuffles its roster early in free agency. Martin is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract, which would pay him $7.1 million next season.
▪ The Heat has consecutive national TV appearances this week. Kevin Harlan and Reggie Miller call the Heat-Celtics game at 7 p.m. Thursday on TNT, and Dave Pasch and Hubie Brown call the Heat’s game at the Knicks at 3 p.m. Saturday on ABC. Neither of those games will be on Bally Sports Sun.
Also, ESPN dropped the Memphis-Boston game at 6 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 4 and replaced with a Clippers-at-Heat game. That game also will be on Bally Sports Sun.
