Will NC get wintry weather for Thanksgiving? Here’s what climate experts say
Fall is in full swing, but it doesn’t feel like it in some parts of North Carolina this week, with some temperatures reaching into the 80s.
With Thanksgiving just a few weeks away, some may be wondering if the weather will cool down for the holiday, or even if we’ll get some snow.
It’s too early to say for certain what the forecast will be, but it’s unlikely there will be any wintry weather, climate experts say.
“The chances of seeing anything truly wintry, in terms of frozen precipitation, towards the end of November are very low,” Corey Davis, an assistant state climatologist from the North Carolina State Climate Office, told The Charlotte Observer. “That’s not just because of the pattern that we’re in now. It’s just because of our climatology.”
Chances are generally higher in the western parts of the state, like in the mountains. But Davis says temperatures are usually above freezing for this time of year, with the first snowfall usually in the middle or end of December.
“I would say if you’re going to take a Thanksgiving evening drive to try to find something frozen, good luck with that. You might want to look in your freezer instead,” Davis explained.
“There’s probably not a lot of great chances for any snow over that week in North Carolina, but it also depends on exactly what’s coming through … if we were to get a good low-pressure system right off the coast, then who knows? Maybe there’s a chance some spots of the mountains could see a few flakes. But again, at the moment, again, there’s no flakes, there’s no drops. There’s really nothing falling anywhere in the state.”
[RELATED: Could Charlotte get snow before the year ends? What climate experts say]
Overall, Davis says much of the state has had a pretty warm fall so far, with warmer weather continuing in the first week of November. This past month also marked the 54th warmest October on record in North Carolina, with warmer temperatures compared to this time last year.
“Last October was actually the 21st coolest October on record,” Davis said. “But then going back before that, we’ve had a string of 6 Octobers in a row that all ranked among the top 15 warmest on record in North Carolina. So that was certainly the trend, at least, for several years, that we were getting these consistently warm Octobers… in that sense, we’d say the last two years have been a little bit closer to normal, even though we were on the cooler side last year and a little on the warmer side this year.”
When might NC get some snow?
Davis says the state generally doesn’t get much cool weather during the month of November, with cooler, wintry weather really kicking in at the beginning of every new year.
“Even in the first part of December, sometimes we can get some decently cold and decently snowy weather, but those are rare events,” Davis said. “December often feels like a late fall period as well. January and February are getting more into the heart of winter. Those tend to be our best chances for good cold, snowy weather.”
A more precise Thanksgiving forecast
As of now, it’s still too early to know for sure what the weather will be like on Thanksgiving, but you’ll be able to get a clearer picture of what to expect next week.
“We would often say five to seven days before any event, any plan that you’re making, that’s a good time to start checking the forecast, whether that’s from the National Weather Service, or checking the app on your phone or watching the news,” Davis told The Observer.
“We generally have more confidence, at least about the overall pattern. Of course the timing can shift a little bit.”
