NFL Divisional playoffs: Our picks for Chiefs-Bills and all four games including the best upset shots
GREG COTE’S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS
The death of seasons continues to be mourned in Miami, Dallas, Philadelphia and elsewhere, but we interrupt the grieving for more cheering because the rest of the country doesn’t give a flying hoot about our misery. This weekend’s quartet of NFL Divisional Round playoffs will begin to answer if anyone can surprise us and derail what seems the inevitability of a San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Speaking of Vegas, how much dough would you be merrily counting right now if you’d bet in the preseason that four of the last eight quarterbacks standing would be Baker Mayfield, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love and Jared Goff?
AFC
TEXANS (11-7) at RAVENS (13-4)
Line: BAL by 9.
Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-20.
TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN/ABC.
One year ago Houston had come off a woeful 3-13-1 season, was praying for some draft magic ... and got it. His name: C.J. Stroud. He’s why No. 4 seed Texans are two wins from a Super Bowl appearance in Saturday’s first of four weekend Divisional games. But the dream run ends here. Hey, sometimes fairy tales end badly, right? Stroud’s first road playoff game is in a very tough place vs. a very tough defense (though the bet line is fat enough to like dogs to cover). Texans’ best hope for outright upset is that Baltimore’s starters haven’t played for three weeks and that might show — or that Ravens will assume Texans are in happy-to-be-here mode and take them lightly. Last week’s impressive Texans rout of Cleveland should help prevent that, despite Houston being 2-11 in past 13 vs. Ravens and having never won (0-7) in Baltimore. Ravens average 31.9 points at home this season and hope to have excellent TE Mark Andrews back from injury. Another big factor in my strong BAL lean: It’s proving-ground time for Lamar Jackson. He might be headed for another league MVP trophy but is 1-3 in the postseason — a reputation and career-sullying narrative that would metastasize if he falls here as a No. 1 seed. It won’t happen.
CHIEFS (12-6) at BILLS (12-6)
Line: BUF by 3.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 24-20.
TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS.
The second AFC semifinal bats cleanup for the Divisional Round weekend in prime-time Sunday and should. It’s the Game of the Week, the only one that feels even, and where the underdog winning would not surprise. Buffalo earned the No. 2 seed (that might have been Miami’s) and so is home vs. No. 3 K.C. — and that is huge. Because that makes this Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game of his career. Not counting three Super Bowl appearances, he’ ha played all 12 previous postseason games in the comfort of Arrowhead but now must wander to western New York, albeit with summery 20-degree temps expected. Chiefs have won 10 of past 12 on the road but are on a 2-9 skid in away playoff games. By contrast Buffalo is on a masterful 14-2 run in playoff games in Billsville. Mahomes will try to buck that trend and see K.C. into a sixth straight AFC title game, while Josh Allen has his own incentive after playoff ousters in this round each of the past two seasons, and also losing the past two playoff meetings vs. the Chiefs. Allen hopes to have WR Gabe Davis back to throw to again. Two great QBs make it a titan matchup, but the home-field edge makes it a medium-confidence lean to Bills.
NFC
PACKERS (10-8) at 49ERS (12-5)
Line: SF by 9 1/2.
Cote’s pick: SF, 30-20.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Saturday, Fox.
The first NFC semifinal is Saturday under the lights and San Fran’s No. 1 seed vs. Green Bay’s No. 7 casts it as lopsided, although that may disrespect the surge the Packers are on. Gee Bees have won four in a row straight-up as betting underdogs, and QB Jordan Love has been as good as anybody the past two-plus months and on a 21-1 TDs/picks tear over the past nine games. And RB Aaron Jones and that GB O-line are percolating, too. Pack’s 48-point detonation of Dallas’ defense surely earned the Niners’ full attention. I can see Love and Brock Purdy trading touchdowns in a shootout here. More than that, though, I think the two running games will be paramount. San Fran off a first-round bye week enjoys optimum health, and that includes having supreme run stopper Arik Armstead back to make Jones’ life tougher. On the opposite side, I believe Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers — who led NFL with 74 runs of 10-plus yards — can do ground-level damage against a Packers’ defense whose soft spot tends to be vs. the run. Green Bay began the season 2-5 and then 3-6, with Love under fire. Their turnaround has been remarkable. But it ends here.
BUCCANEERS (10-8) at LIONS (13-5)
Line: DET by 6 1/2.
Cote’s pick: DET, 31-28.
TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, NBC.
Second NFC semifinal is the early Sunday game, and being played in what suddenly is the happiest city in the NFL. Detroit’s first playoff victory since 1991 last week has Dan Campbell and Jared Goff the biggest things in Motown since Marvin Gaye and Steve Wonder. To put the end of that league-worst drought in perspective, no other final-eight team has waited longer than since 2019 for its last postseason win. Lions are No. 3 seeds to Bucs’ No. 4, but Tampa crushed Philly last week while Detroit eked out a 1-point win over the Rams -- its ninth one-score result this season. Lions haven’t earned overconfidence and better not be feeling that here because Baker Mayfield is on a right-before-our-eyes comeback tour that has resurrected his once-discarded career. Bucs have won four straight as a betting underdog and have a big chance to make it five in a row. I’m buying Detroit’s mojo, though, and the lift from its 10-2 run at home. More tangibly, Jared Goff, like Mayfield once written off, rises like the phoenix from Greek mythology and could do major damage here -- thinking a flirt with 400 yards -- vs. a subpar Tampa Bay pass defense that is bottom-five in most air yards allowed.
[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of afternoon Thursday.
FIRST TEAMS OUT
Wild Card Round losers ranked by panicked calamity in wake of early exit:
1. Cowboys: Stunning defensive collapse by No. 2 seed ends 16-game home win streak and makes it 17 losses in past 21 Cowboys playoff games. Narrative: Will unemployed Bill Belichick be flown in on Jerry’s private jet?
2. Dolphins: Miami’s sixth straight playoff loss since last win in 2000 season is now longest active drought in NFL. With three straight bad losses to end once-promising season. Narrative: Should Tua get the mega-contract extension?
3. Browns: Defense failed Cleveland majorly in upset loss, but it was a road game with fill-in Joe Flacco at QB. Narrative: But is $230 Million Man Deshaun Watson, off a lost season, really the answer?
4. Rams: L.A. has league’s second-youngest roster and at 3-6 never expected to get this far. Narrative: We’re all too happy for long-forlorn Detroit and Eminem to even care about the Rams losing.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We bull’s-eyed the Texans’ outright upset of Browns, nailed a dog-with-points cover by Rams vs. Lions, and had Bills’ 14-point winning margin on the nose vs. Steelers. The bad news? Was blindsided by Cowboys and Eagles losses, even though in hindsight the latter, especially, offered red flags I chose to ignore. Overall I’ll give a brief hug to 4-2 against the spread — which rekindles hopes to topping .500 for the season — and call it a decent start to our playoff run.
Wild Card Round: 3-3, .500 overall; 4-2, .667 vs. spread.
Season: 174-104, .626 overall; 134-135-9, .498 vs. spread.
