NFL Week 4 picks: Game of the Week, Year & Century! Dolphins at Bills! (And here is who will win...)
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
GAME OF THE WEEK
UPSET OF WEEK
DOLPHINS (3-0) at BILLS (2-1)
Line: BUF by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 30-27. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “First, the big news of the week...” BULLETIN: Tyreek Hill wants to be a porn star when he retires. “Dead serious,” he said. UPDATE (one day later): “My teammates are hating on me right now. “I was joking!” OK, back to football! Apparently Hill’s Miami Dolphins play a pretty big game Sunday at Buffalo. Check that: Game of the Week, Game of the Year and, for the Fins, Game of the 21st Century, considering Miami has not won a playoff game since the 2000 season. Also big because it’s a rare triple for our NFL picks: A Dolphins game that also is both the Game of the Week and the Upset of the Week. The point spread is justified. Yes, Miami gets a calendar break with temps expected in the balmly low 60s, but Fins have lost seven trips in a row to Buffalo. And the offense that just hung 70 points on Denver last week now faces a mighty Bills defense that has allowed all of two TDs in three games. Even with Dolphins getting Jaylen Waddle back from a concussion, Bills’ D will be hell-bent to bring Tua Tagovailoa’s high-flying circus back to Earth in a litmus test game for both teams. Is Buffalo still king of the AFC East, or is Miami the new boss now? Let’s all find out together. Me? I remain all-in on the Dolphins until they give me a reason to waver. “No 70 points here, not even from both teams together,” notes U-Bird. “But you can have Josh Allen. I’ll take Tagovailaawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 4:
Thursday night: @Packers (+1) over Lions, 24-20: Upset! Find that full prediction capsule separately here.
Jaguars (1-2, -3) over Falcons (2-1), 26-18, in London: Cheerio! Breakfast at Wembley, mates? The 9:30 a.m. tilt marks Jax’s league-record 10th international game in London and first of two in a row. (Aside to Brits: We Americans don’t all have hair like Trevor Lawrence. We did in California in 1966, but not now.) An upset would not surprise, but Atlanta has lost seven in a row on the road and also rides an 0-7 skid straight up as an underdog. Jags have the run D to limit Falcons’ strength.
Broncos (0-3, -3 1/2) over @Bears (0-3), 30-23: Sadness Bowl! Desperate Sean Payton vs. the Calamity Bears pits two teams not only winless but coming off losses by a combined 81 points, likely a record. Over-46 might be the best play. Russell Wilson due a huge day vs. a Chicago squad that cannot pressure the pocket, while Justin Fields might be in same enviable spot vs. a Denver run defense that Miami absolutely mauled.
@Browns (2-1, -3) over Ravens (2-1), 19-17: Reunion of division rivals is our Game of the Week first-alternate and toughest pick this week. Deshaun Watson seems to have found a bit of a groove, and Browns’ run D should limit what Ravens do best and force Lamar Jackson to go airborne for the win — sometimes an uh-oh proposition. Baltimore is on an 11-4 run in series but Earthtones have won past two. Big upset shot for BAL. Riding Browns’ defense but hedging with Crows to cover in low-points affair.
Bengals (1-2, -2 1/2) over @Titans (1-2), 24-17: Joe Burrow is finally healthy-ish and getting his mojo with Ja’Marr Chase back, and outscoring Titans figures as a low bar to clear. Tennessee’s offense has been bad — Iowa Hawkeyes bad — as Ryan Tannehill loses the grip on his career as a starting QB because Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins have not provided the rescue needed. Titans still a tempting home-’dog, but on a 1-9 skid and with three straight L’s vs. Bengals.
@Colts (2-1, Even) over Rams (1-2), 27-23: Offsetting trends as Rams have lost eight of past nine on road, but Colts have dropped six straight at home. I rarely flip on a pick but changed my mind on this one. Indy dual-threat QB Anthony Richardson returns from concussion and will be tougher for LAR’s young defense than Gardner Minshew would have been, and A-Rich has a hot RB in Zach Moss.
@Saints (2-1, -3) over Buccaneers (2-1), 23-16: Big early game in the winnable (read: mediocre) NFC South. Derek Carr (shoulder) is doubtful so it looks like Jameis Winston for Saints vs. his longtime former team. He will be pumped and have the home crowd and the return-from-suspension of Alvin Kamara behind him against a Tampa run D just obliterated by Philly. N’Awlins has won nine of past 13 at home vs Tee Bees and see that trend continuing.
@Eagles (3-0, -8 1/2) over Commanders (2-1), 31-13: Birds RB D’Andre Swift — the second-most talked-about Swift in the NFL last week — has looked great behind Philly’s dominant O-line. Washington’s defense has been battered for 70 points and 290 yards rushing in the past two games. Eagles on a 9-3 series run in this NFC East grudge, and this one has the potential to get ugly in the favorites’ favor.
Vikings (0-3, -4) over @Panthers (0-3), 27-20: Sadness Bowl II, the other duel of 0-3s. Rookie QB Bryce Young returns from ankle injury for Cats. That’s dubious good news; veteran fill-in Andy Dalton gave offense a needed lift last week. Young gets a soft secondary in Minnesota’s, but can the struggling rook outscore bombardier Kirk Cousins? Vikes kill themselves with turnovers, are too good to be 0-4, and won’t be. (If they are, coach Kevin O’Connell is in fast trouble.)
Steelers (2-1, -3) over @Texans (1-2), 21-16: HOU rookie QB C.J. Stroud has impressed but faces an XL-size challenge in a Pittsburgh defense that has 13 sacks and forced eight turnovers in three games, including three picks off Jimmy Garoppolo last week. Steelers are good away with five straight road wins and have won three in a row vs. this foe, while Texans are on a 10-game home winless streak (0-9-1).
@Chargers (1-2, -5 1/2) over Raiders (1-2), 30-20: Two shaky coaches in Josh McDaniels and Brandon Staley, and two injuries weighing big. Vegas QB Garoppolo remained in concussion protocol into Thursday and it’s steep fall to Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell if Jimmy G can’t go, despite his pick problems. L.A. RB Austin Ekeler is iffy to return from ankle injury but was trending midweek to do so. (Might have liked Vegas with points if not for doubts on Garoppolo.)
@Cowboys (2-1, -6 1/2) over Patriots (1-2), 23-18: Ezekiel Elliott returns as a Patriot to face his longtime former team, but it’ll take more than Double E to fashion a major upset. Dallas defense takes huge hit with season injury loss of CB Trevon Diggs but has the talent (and incentive) to bounce back from that stunning face-slap loss to Arizona. Boys have won nine in a row at home, but Pats won past two trips to Big D and are getting a lot of points for what seems a defensive matchup.
@49ers (3-0, -14) over Cardinals (1-2), 28-17: San Fran’s offense has rolled 30-30-30 in first three games and looks Super. Now it’s Christian McCaffrey vs. a so-so Cards ground defense, and a Frans D that does best (stop the run) what this opponent likes to do most. It’s a matchup that explains the crazy-big spread despite Arizona having won six of past eight trips to the Bay. That alone makes me chance Cardbirds getting a 14-point head start.
Chiefs (2-1, -9 1/2) over @Jets (1-2), 27-16: Sunday night stage in the Big Apple, so of course all eyes will be on ... Taylor Swift! Just kidding. (Only if she’s up in a suite again cheering on alleged boyfriend Travis Kelce and the TV guys are helpless but to show her.) This game’s marquee was supposed to be Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers; alas, Aaron couldn’t make it. Now it’s Zach Wilson, who is to Aaron Rodgers what I am to William Shakespeare. Jets defense gives covering 9 1/2 a shot, but KC is on a 10-1 run in prime time, and Mahomes vs. Sad Zach makes the point spread seem not that big.
Seahawks (2-1, Even) @Giants (1-2), 31-23: Monday night finds NYG in prime time for third time in four weeks. Note to TV: Giants aren’t that good. Or interesting. And now Saquon Barkley seems very iffy (doubtful) to return here from high-ankle sprain. Seattle has scored 74 points the past two games and now faces NFL’s third-worst defense in most points allowed, and Seahawks’ own defense should have safety Jamal Adams back. Giants are on a 1-14 tailspin in prime time. Why stop now?
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Bad news out of the way first. Had Titans winning in Cleveland for last week’s Upset of the Week. Titans lost, 27-3. (“Aawwful!” said the Upset Bird. What was he thinking? Embarrassing!) And yet we fashioned another solid week overall, both ways, including 9-6 1- vs. the Evil Betting Line, with the Bengals’ 3-point win the push. Our spread victories -- a.k.a. wagging tails) included Texans-with-points at Jacksonville. Lets keep it rollin’. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Packers (+1) over Lions in an upset, 24-20. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]
Week 3: 10-6, .625 overall; 9-6-1, .600 vs. spread.
Season: 30-18, .625 overall; 27-19-2, . 587 vs. spread.
