Who will be the No. 1 pick in 2024 NBA Draft? Early projections say a Kentucky player.
The 2023-24 men’s basketball season is still about three months away from its first game, but the hype around the incoming Kentucky freshmen is already extending beyond Lexington, looking ahead to their not-too-distant professional futures.
NBA Draft analysts expect that future to be particularly bright for a handful of Wildcats.
On Monday, The Athletic became the latest national outlet to post an NBA mock draft for 2024, and Kentucky freshman Justin Edwards was the No. 1 overall player on that list.
Edwards — a 6-foot-8 wing from Philadelphia — is the highest-ranked of several possible stars in UK’s top-rated recruiting class for the upcoming season. Edwards ended up as the No. 3 overall player in the 2023 class, according to the final 247Sports rankings, which pegged forward Ron Holland (G League) at No. 1 and point guard Isaiah Collier (Southern Cal) at No. 2.
The Athletic’s mock draft had G Leaguers Holland, Izan Almansa and Matas Buzelis in the 2-4 spots, with Collier rated as the No. 5 overall pick.
Early indications from basketball analysts at all levels are that the 2024 draft class will not be as strong as in recent years, with The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie pointing out in his mock draft this week that league scouts and executives have told him the top-rated prospect in the 2024 pool probably would have gone in the 6-9 range in this year’s draft, which featured players such as Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson and twin brothers Amen and Ausar Thompson at the top.
Still, going No. 1 in the NBA Draft is obviously quite a feat, and Edwards appears to be one of the top options for that honor next year.
“I’d expect Edwards to have an enormous impact. He’ll be Kentucky’s best player this year …” Vecenie wrote. “I buy him being a bit more polished than some of these other guys, capable of playing well on both ends of the floor at an important position of value (a combo three/four) and especially able to drive toward the rim.”
Edwards averaged 14.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game during UK’s exhibition trip to Canada last month, and he improved as the week at the GLOBL JAM progressed, scoring 23 points in the gold-medal game victory.
Kentucky has had three previous No. 1 picks — all during John Calipari’s tenure as head coach — though the Wildcats haven’t had any such players since Karl-Anthony Towns went first overall in the 2015 draft. John Wall (2010) and Anthony Davis (2012) were UK’s other No. 1 picks.
The Cats have had a total of 14 top-five picks in the history of the NBA Draft, with seven of those coming in the Calipari era. De’Aaron Fox (No. 5 in 2017) was the most recent top-five selection out of Kentucky.
The Athletic isn’t the only major outlet that has Edwards in the top spot.
A mock draft released by USA Today shortly after the 2023 draft also placed the Kentucky freshman as the No. 1 overall pick, projecting that the Washington Wizards would end up with the first selection next year.
Several other NBA mock drafts posted in the past few weeks also list Edwards in a prominent position: No. 3 by NBADraft.net, No. 4 by CBS Sports, No. 4 by NBADraftRoom.com, No. 5 by ESPN and No. 8 by Yahoo Sports.
Kentucky players in NBA mock drafts
Edwards obviously isn’t the only Wildcat on the 2023-24 roster expected to be an NBA Draft pick following the season.
Fellow freshman D.J. Wagner — a 6-3 point guard from New Jersey — was ranked as the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class for much of his high school career. That standing took a bit of a hit in recent months, but he still finished the cycle as the No. 6 overall prospect in the final 247Sports rankings and remains one of the most intriguing NBA Draft possibilities for next year.
USA Today projects Wagner as the No. 6 pick in 2024, with ESPN and CBS Sports both ranking him No. 7, Yahoo and NBADraftRoom.com pegging him at No. 13 and NBADraft.net placing him 21st overall. The Athletic had Wagner at No. 22 in its mock draft this week, an indication of the polarizing outlook over his future prospects.
In his assessment of Wagner’s draft stock, Vecenie lauded the UK freshman for his toughness, aggressiveness and confidence but cast some doubt over various aspects of his game, referring to him as a “good” athlete (not a great one), and questioning his passing ability for the point guard position as well as his shooting ability at the next level.
Injured big man Aaron Bradshaw is also featured prominently on draft boards, and NBADraft.net actually has the high-upside 7-footer from New Jersey as the No. 1 overall pick on a board that has been updated since it was revealed that Bradshaw underwent surgery for a foot injury this offseason. Calipari has said he does not expect Bradshaw to miss any games in the regular season, though the UK coach has not put a firm timetable on his return to the court.
“We will not rush him back,” Calipari said before UK’s trip to Canada.
The opinions on Bradshaw’s draft status vary greatly.
NBADraftRoom.com (No. 7), CBS Sports (No. 8) and Yahoo (No. 9) also have him inside the top 10, while USA Today rates him 20th and ESPN (32nd) and The Athletic (38th) project him outside of the first round completely. Vecenie acknowledged that Bradshaw’s foot injury caused him to slide on The Athletic’s board this week.
Sophomore center Ugonna Onyenso, who is also sidelined with a foot injury this offseason, and freshmen Rob Dillingham and Zvonimir Ivisic, who committed to UK last week, have also been featured on multiple draft boards in recent weeks.
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